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Mixed Oil Markets and Q2 Slowdown Signal Economic Warnings to Nigeria

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By Lukman Otunuga, Senior Research Analyst at FXTM,

Another recent escalation in the trade dispute between the US and China has punished crude Oil prices and set off warning signals for Oil-producing countries like Nigeria.

At the same time, Nigeria’s GDP slowed down to 1.94 percent in the second quarter from 2.1 percent in the first quarter, following the trend seen in several economies such as Germany and the UK.

It is becoming quite clear that as long as oil dependence remains one of Nigeria’s biggest risks, this will continue weighing heavily on the economy for the rest of 2019. While the GDP data should nudge the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to cut interest rates for the second time this year in September in an effort to stimulate growth, this is a temporary fix to a bigger problem

What trade disputes mean for Nigeria’s economy

Persistent trade disputes between the world’s two largest economies is set to fuel fears over a global slowdown or even recession. Oil prices declined on the basis that a decelerating global growth may result in lower demand for the commodity Nigeria relies on for 90% of its export earnings.

In the context of a trade dispute, tariffs are like bombs exploding on trading relationships, supply deals and eventually on company profits.

Trade tensions also remain a direct threat to Nigeria’s economy. The risk factors are escalating along with the probability that the world may see an economic slowdown in the short-to-medium term.

Under the current circumstances, there are three main challenges Nigeria must navigate. They are China’s slowdown, lower oil prices, and the need for fast and adaptive monetary policy to handle local and external shocks.

Will China impact Nigeria’s growth prospects?

China’s growth slowed to 6.2% in the second quarter, its weakest expansion in three decades. 

Most recently, China’s backing in the form of loans reached $16 billion and its vested interest is seen as a key support for the current production level of 1.85 million barrels per day. 

However, Nigeria aims to reach three million barrels per day and needs more investment from China, which may prove to be more difficult going forward if China’s economy continues to decline.

The high level of debt to China is also proving to be a weight on fiscal revenues because Nigeria spent 50% of its 2018 government revenues on debt repayment.

Indeed, the IMF has urged Nigeria to curb its large appetite for Chinese loans as the country struggles with a €70 billion debt burden. That’s up from €62 billion in 2017, representing a year-on-year rise of 12.25 percent.

Lower oil prices remain a threat to Nigeria’s recovery

The prospect of high debt levels to China amid lower oil prices is something that must not be overlooked.

At the time of writing, Oil benchmarks come under continuous pressure from demand-side concerns, including recession fears stemming from trade disputes.

The money from Oil sales is the lifeblood of the Nigerian economy. In the worst-case scenario, if Oil prices start drifting lower there could be unwelcome consequences such as even slower GDP growth, job losses, sovereign debt defaults, less money in the fiscal budget for development, and constrained consumer spending. 

Reduced crude Oil sales would affect government revenues and reserves, meaning the capacity to fund projects will be weakened. Stock markets together with investor sentiment domestically and externally would be impacted and possibly even trigger capital outflows.

Can Monetary policy handle downside shocks?

One would have expected economic momentum to pick up from Q1 after CBN cut interest rates in March and forced lenders to dish out more credit in a bid to boost growth.

While lower rates have the potential to keep the economy running, the answer to Nigeria’s woes can be found in diversification. The level of progress the nation has made in breaking away from the shackles of oil reliance remains a question for many with even the International Monetary Fund urging the nation to diversify revenues.

Another concern is friction over a recent UK court decision allowing a natural gas company to take over nine billion USD worth of Nigerian sovereign assets in London. The government has refused to accept the ruling and plans to appeal but the CBN may still need to step in to defend the Naira.

There is still some light at the end of the tunnel for the Nigerian economy if the right steps are taking in breaking away from oil reliance to other sustainable sources of economic growth. However, if Oil prices continue to send warning signals to Nigeria’s economic policy makers by trading sideways or declining, fiscal measures combined with monetary policy easing measures may become urgently needed to accelerate economic diversification.


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Ugo Onwuaso is an ICT enthusiast. He believes technology should be used for general good. He holds a Master of Public Administration (MPA) degree from the Lagos state University. Dear Reader, Your support matters. But we believe that technology makes life more exciting and helps improve the lives of people around Nigeria and indeed the world. That is why, we have devoted our energy to independent reportage of technology and finance and how they affect lives. Our incisive and analytical view of how technology news affects the daily life help individuals and organizations make up their minds. Quality journalism costs money. Today, we're asking that you support us to do more. Kindly support our effort to deliver technology and finance journalism to everyone in the world. Donate as little as N1,000. Bank transfers can be made to: UBA Plc 1017156876 Communication Week Media Ltd

E-Financial

FG Moves to End Double Taxation

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Federal government has started new efforts to improve tax collection in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) and stop the problem of multiple taxation.

FG Moves to End Double Taxation

Mr. Taiwo Oyedele, minister of Finance and coordinating minister of the economy, disclosed this after a meeting with Nyesom Wike, minister, FCT, on Sunday.

According to Oyedele, the meeting focused on strengthening cooperation between the Ministry of Finance and the FCT Administration to support development projects in Abuja.

A major part of the discussion was how to improve tax administration in the territory.

He explained that the proposed tax harmonisation would create a more coordinated tax system, reduce the burden of multiple taxes on residents and businesses, and improve government revenue collection.

Oyedele said the plan is in line with the new tax reform law and is expected to help accelerate development across the FCT.

“The two ministers also reviewed plans to harmonise tax administration within the FCT,” he said.

He added that the initiative would eliminate multiple taxation while ensuring that government revenue is collected more efficiently.

The meeting also examined ways to strengthen collaboration on infrastructure projects across Abuja.

According to Oyedele, discussions centred on supporting the FCT’s ongoing infrastructure renewal programme.

He commended Wike’s approach to development, noting that the minister has focused on completing long-abandoned projects rather than starting new ones.

Oyedele said this strategy is helping to unlock economic and social benefits for residents by bringing stalled public projects back into use.

The proposed tax harmonisation is expected to make tax administration easier for individuals and businesses operating in the FCT while aligning Abuja’s revenue system with the provisions of the new tax reform law.

 


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Standard Bank Targets $15.4b SME Growth in Nigeria, Others with Trade Expansion Drive

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Standard Bank Group has identified Nigeria and four other markets as strategic growth hubs as it seeks to tap into $15.4 billion revenue opportunity driven by expanding small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and rising intra-African trade.

The bank disclosed the plan through Bill Blackie, the Chief Executive Officer of its Business and Commercial Banking (Standard Bank Group) division, who outlined the lender’s growth strategy in an interview with Bloomberg.

Under the strategy, Standard Bank will deepen its presence in Nigeria, Ghana, Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania while consolidating its dominance in South Africa. The five markets account for about 85 per cent of the estimated revenue opportunity available to the group’s BCB operations.

The expansion forms part of the lender’s broader ambition to accelerate earnings growth through 2028, leveraging increasing demand for banking services among businesses across the continent.

According to Blackie, the BCB division has recorded robust growth over the past five years, supported by rising business activity and greater demand for financial services across Africa.

He said the division doubled both headline earnings and return on capital between 2020 and 2025, with return on capital increasing from 19 per cent to 38 per cent during the period.

Earnings from operations across the continent also expanded at an average annual rate of 30 per cent.

Building on this performance, the bank is targeting compound annual growth of between eight and nine per cent through 2028, although Blackie expressed confidence that growth could reach double-digit levels as the strategy gains traction.

A key pillar of Standard Bank’s growth strategy is expanding support for SMEs and mid-sized businesses, which account for most enterprises across Africa.

The bank is particularly positioning itself to benefit from opportunities created by the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which is expected to accelerate economic integration and cross-border commerce across the continent.

According to the International Trade Centre, nearly half of Africa’s small businesses export to other African countries, compared with only 14 per cent of larger firms, underscoring the critical role of SMEs in driving regional commerce.

The lender is also leveraging its extensive African footprint and strategic partnership with the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) to attract businesses seeking access to international markets, particularly China.


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E-Financial

NAICOM’s 18 Months Management Spill @ African Alliance Ends

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The National Insurance Commission (NAICOM) has handed over the management of African Alliance Insurance Plc to a newly constituted board nominated by shareholders.

‎The move ends a regulatory intervention that rescued the troubled insurer from the brink of collapse.

The development marks a major milestone in the insurance industry’s efforts to strengthen policyholders’ protection and restore confidence in the sector, following months of intensive regulatory oversight aimed at stabilising the company.

NAICOM had stepped into the affairs of African Alliance Insurance in October 2024 after the insurer was hit by severe liquidity constraints, mounting annuity payment arrears, unresolved claims obligations, regulatory infractions and reputational challenges that threatened its survival and eroded public trust.

‎Speaking at the handover ceremony, Commissioner for Insurance, Olusegun Omosehin, said the intervention had achieved its primary objectives of restoring operational stability, settling outstanding liabilities and protecting the interests of shareholders and annuitants.

Omosehin said a successful turnaround demonstrates the regulator’s commitment to safeguarding the insurance industry while ensuring that policyholders do not bear the consequences of corporate distress.

He also highlighted the significance of the newly enacted Nigerian Insurance Industry Reform Act (NIIRA) 2025, describing it as a game-changer for the sector.

The Commissioner observed that had the fund been in existence before the African Alliance’s crisis, it would have helped to cushion the impact on policyholders by facilitating the timely settlement of legitimate claims and annuity obligations.

He charged the new board to uphold high standards of corporate governance, transparency and regulatory compliance, while prioritising prompt claims settlement, sound solvency management and prudent business practices.

Industry stakeholders view the successful rehabilitation of African Alliance as a test case for regulatory intervention in Nigeria’s insurance sector, particularly at a time when operators are under pressure to strengthen their capital base, improve governance standards and rebuild public confidence.

During its tenure, the NAICOM appointed an interim board to restore liquidity through the recovery of trapped dividend funds and other inflows, settled a significant portion of annuity arrears and legacy claims, facilitated the transfer of the company’s annuity portfolio, completed forensic and actuarial reviews and addressed several regulatory and operational challenges. ‎


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