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Moody Downgrades Nigeria’s Outlook from Stable to Negative

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Lukman Otunuga, Senior Research Analyst at FXTM,
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By Lukman Otunuga, Senior Research Analyst at FXTM,

Investor sentiment towards the Nigerian economy was dealt a blow after Moody’s changed the outlook on the government of Nigeria’s ratings to negative from stable.

Moody Downgrades Nigeria’s Outlook from Stable to Negative

President Buhari

Given how the negative outlook reflects Moody’s view of increasing risks to the government’s fiscal strength, this should act as another wakeup call for the nation to diversify and move away from oil reliance. Weak government finances exacerbated by depressed oil prices and sluggish economic growth may disrupt fiscal consolidation. With both monetary and fiscal policy needed to support the Nigerian economy, the mounting pressures from the fiscal side must not be overlooked.

Speaking of Oil prices, the commodity spiked to levels not seen in over two months above $59.05 on Thursday. This comes after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies reached a deal in principle to cut output by an extra 500,000 barrels per day in the first quarter of 2020. However, prices later retraced after OPEC+ failed to offer clarity as it lacked key details of the agreement for deeper production cuts. One important takeaway from the proposal is that Russia will be allowed to exclude its condensate volumes from the terms of production, which could see oil prices trade lower. Another complication in the OPEC deal remains compliance, with some nations frequently pumping above their target levels. Until there is a solution to improve compliance, Oil is positioned to depreciate despite the deeper cuts.

Investors will direct their attention towards the press conference on Friday which should offer key details on the agreement and how the production cuts will be distributed among members.


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E-Financial

NIBBS to Boost Financial Inclusion with Offline Payment Solutions

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The Nigeria Inter-Bank Settlement System (NIBSS) is looking into offline payment solutions as part of its efforts to increase financial inclusion and reach Nigerians who have limited or no access to mobile data.

The project was announced by Ngover Nwankwo, NIBSS executive director for business and products, at the 2026 CHBO Conference in Lagos.

Nwankwo pointed out that the rapid expansion of digital payments must be matched by purposeful inclusion initiatives, cautioning that innovation should not exclude groups of the population that still rely largely on cash.

She emphasised that cash is still an important element of Nigeria’s economy and that digital and cash-based payments must coexist to safeguard disadvantaged users while boosting efficiency for digitally connected customers.

Nwanko also commended banks for operational performance, particularly during the December 2025 cash demand period, which she said was met with few public complaints.

Lloyd Onaghinon, Bankers Warehouse Plc,had similar sentiments on the enduring need of cash. He explained that cash usage remained high globally due to cultural, demographic, and trust-related factors

However, he cautioned that surplus currency outside the banking system undermines financial intermediation and monetary policy efficacy, demanding greater cooperation among regulators, banks, and other stakeholders.

Director Solaja Olayemi, representing the Central Bank of Nigeria, stated that around 90% of Nigeria’s cash remained outside the banking system and encouraged banks to collaborate with fintechs and microfinance institutions..

He added that fintechs with substantial agent networks, such as Moniepoint, OPay, and Kuda, are better positioned to drive inclusion, with some companies now holding national licenses.

 


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CBN Upgrades Licences of Opay, Moniepoint, Kuda, Palmpay, Paga to National Status

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has approved the upgrade of operating licences for major FinTech companies and Microfinance Banks (MFBs), including Opay, Moniepoint MFB, Kuda Bank, Palmpay and Paga, to national status, formalising their nationwide operations after fulfilling regulatory compliance requirements.

The development addresses the rapid expansion of these digital platforms, which have leveraged mobile technology and extensive agent networks to serve millions across Nigeria, outgrowing their previous regional or state-level licences.

Yemi Solaja, Director of the CBN’s Other Financial Institutions Supervision Department, announced the upgrades during the annual conference of the Committee of Heads of Banks’ Operations (CHBO) in Lagos.

Institutions like Moniepoint MFB, Opay, Kuda Bank and others have now been upgraded. In practice, their operations are already nationwide, Solaja stated, highlighting the mismatch between prior licensing scopes and actual service footprints.

He underscored the critical need for physical customer support infrastructure, especially for informal sector users who form the bulk of their clientele, noting that Most of their customers operate in the informal sector. They need a clear point of contact if any issues arise.

With national licences, these institutions must adhere to elevated standards, including a minimum capital base of N5 billion for national MFBs, establishment of dedicated offices for complaint resolution, and rigorous Know-Your-Customer (KYC) protocols to bolster consumer protection and financial system stability.

The reforms align with CBN’s broader strategy to integrate large-scale digital operators into a robust regulatory framework commensurate with their reach, while harnessing their potential to deepen financial inclusion across Nigeria’s underserved populations.

This milestone follows intensified oversight, exemplified by 2024 penalties of N1 billion each imposed on Moniepoint and Opay for KYC non-compliance during routine audits, alongside similar actions against other players like Kuda and Palmpay, which prompted operational overhauls.

Such measures reflect the apex bank’s commitment to balancing innovation with risk management in the fintech sector, which has revolutionised access to banking services for millions in the informal economy through agent banking and mobile wallets.

Industry observers view the national upgrades as a vote of confidence in these trailblazers, while signalling that sustained compliance remains non-negotiable for their continued dominance in Nigeria’s digital finance ecosystem.

 


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NIBSS, Others Flag 13,417 Nigerian Fraudsters on Person of Interest Portal

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At least 13,417 individuals linked to fraudulent activities in Nigeria’s financial system have been captured on the Person of Interest Portal jointly developed by the Nigeria Inter Bank Settlement System (NIBSS) in collaboration with the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), security agencies and other stakeholders.

NIBSS, Others Flag 13,417 Nigerian Fraudsters on Person of Interest Portal

Premier Oiwoh, managing director of NIBSS,  disclosed this while speaking on ongoing efforts to curb fraud in the payments ecosystem, noting that the portal which contains names and photographs of suspects has been actively used by law enforcement agencies since it began capturing data from 2019.

Oiwoh, while noting that fraud management remains a core responsibility of NIBSS, noted that the number of reported fraud cases has declined over the past five years, the value of losses remains a key concern for regulators and operators.

According to him, actual fraud losses stood at about N17.67 billion in 2023 before rising sharply to N52.26 billion in 2024, mainly due to a single incident involving N31.1 billion by one entity. He noted, however, that losses dropped significantly in 2025, reflecting tighter controls and improved collaboration across the industry.

He explained that Lagos continues to account for the highest concentration of fraud cases due to its position as the country’s commercial hub, while Abuja has also recorded a notable rise, with other states still featuring in reported incidents.

By transaction channel, Oiwoh said fraud is most prevalent in e-commerce and internet banking, followed by POS, mobile and web platforms.

He identified social engineering as the most common technique used by fraudsters, warning that insider abuse now poses the greatest threat to the system.

“Insider involvement is high, and recent investigations have confirmed this. Many of the fraud cases we are seeing today involve insiders, including former bankers,” he stated, noting that coordinated industry action has yielded results, and that joint efforts last year alone prevented losses of about N20 billion that could have been lost to fraud.

He raised concern over non-reporting of fraud incidents revealing that fraud reporting declined by about 34 per cent in the last quarter of 2025.

He warned that failure to report allows perpetrators to move freely between institutions undetected.

“In several cases investigated last year, individuals involved in fraud simply moved to other institutions because incidents were not reported. Non-reporting is unacceptable,” he said.

He said NIBSS, working with the CBN, the Nigerian Financial Intelligence Unit, and security agencies, has integrated centralised data systems, including industry watch lists, politically exposed persons databases, and customer account repositories, into the Person of Interest Portal to strengthen monitoring, identity management, and fraud prevention.

Credit… Leadership


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