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Naira Tumbles, to Hit N350/Dollar Today as CBN Ends Peg

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Godwin Emefiele, Governor, Central Bank of Nigeria
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Pent-up demand for dollars may push Nigeria’s naira at least 20 percent weaker when the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) allows the currency of Africa’s biggest economy to float freely on Monday, said analysts including Renaissance Capital Ltd. and Exotix Partners LLP.

Bloomberg reported that demand for foreign currency has built up to about $3 billion since capital controls were imposed 15 months ago to defend the currency’s peg of 197-199 per dollar, according to Chapel Hill Denham Securities Ltd.

Elsewhere, the Nation newspapers reported that the interbank market, which opens by 9.00am and closes at 2.00pm, will see the naira-dollar exchange rate in a volatile state.

The newspaper said that the local currency is likely to exchange around N340/N350 against the greenback.

But Bloomberg added that even as the naira weakens, local stocks may extend the best three-day rally since April 2015 in anticipation of a return by foreign investors and as the risk of exclusion from global indexes fades.

Banks may gain as the policy change allows them to profit from foreign-exchange volatility and boost trading income, analysts at Exotix said.

“We think the rate will be around 250 or 260 per dollar” when the naira starts trading on the interbank market, said Tajudeen Ibrahim, head of equity research at Lagos-based Chapel Hill Denham.

The central bank will probably help clear demand by selling dollars, he said, moderating potential volatility.

Central bank Governor Godwin Emefiele announced the end of the currency peg on June 15, surprising analysts who had expected the oil producer to turn to a two-tiered system with tighter controls on the exchange rate. Nigeria has held the peg since March 2015, spending about $2.7 billion — 9.3 percent of its foreign reserves — on the measure this year, even as other oil exporters devalued their currencies as crude prices slumped by more than half since 2014.

Three-month non-deliverable naira forwards jumped to a record 333 per dollar on June 15 after Emefiele announced the changes. On the black market, dollars changed hands for 350 naira on Friday, Lagos-based Everdon Bureau de Change said by e-mail.

The naira could start trading at 260 per dollar, potentially weakening to 390 by year-end, before retracing, Renaissance said in a June 16 note.
‘Never Imagined’

“We never imagined a free-floating naira,” Johannesburg-based analyst Yvonne Mhango said. “This will release a pressure valve for the economy. We see the economy beginning to thaw and green shoots emerge possibly as soon as a year from now. Before then, we believe the macro picture will deteriorate.”

The naira could initially weaken beyond 300 to the dollar, before reaching “fair value” of 280 to 290, said Alan Cameron, London-based economist at Exotix.

Investment into Nigeria has shriveled as foreigners are deterred by capital controls, while local businesses have struggled to import raw materials and equipment. International carriers including United Airlines and Iberia have halted operations in the West African country, saying they couldn’t move revenue out.

“We see a lot of volatility from high dollar demand, because as of today, if you get 10 percent of your request you’re lucky,’’ Olubunmi Asaolu, an analyst at Lagos-based FBN Quest said by phone. While the naira could stabilize at about 290 per dollar, any move toward 350 “will cause mayhem” and prompt the central bank to moderate the drop by supplying additional greenbacks.

The central bank will select a group of around 10 primary dealers through which the naira will be traded. There will only be one official exchange rate and the bank will intervene in the market to buy or sell foreign exchange “as the need arises,” Emefiele said as he unveiled the new policy.

Demand for dollars won’t be satisfied on Monday alone and may take more than a week to clear, said Ibrahim at Chapel Hill. It might also be a while before buyers from abroad feel confident enough to acquire Nigerian assets, he said.

“The new market will start off slowly as investors will initially be cautious as they try to understand it,” Ibrahim said. “We’re unlikely to see foreign investors coming back very quickly. They’ll take their time. It might be a couple of weeks before we see new foreign money being invested.”

Heineken NV, which controls Nigeria’s largest brewer, views a rate of 250 to 280 naira per euro and 283 to 316 per dollar as “not that bad,” said Chief Financial Officer Laurence Debroux. Not having access to hard currency has been an obstacle to operating in Nigeria and a return of liquidity in Africa’s most-populous nation would be “great,” he told a June 16 investor meeting.

Three-month non-deliverable naira forwards rose 1.6 percent to 320 per dollar on June 17, suggesting traders expect the Nigerian currency to trade around that level in the market. Stocks climbed 2.7 percent on June 17, capping an 8.2 percent three-day rally, the best since April 2015. The yield on Nigeria’s 2023 dollar bonds dropped 4 basis points to 7.2 percent, after debt gained the most since 2014 on June 15.

The turnabout in foreign-exchange policy came after gross domestic product contracted in the three months through March for the first time since 2004 and inflation accelerated to 15.6 percent in May. MSCI Inc. said June 15 — before the central bank’s announcement — it may drop Nigerian stocks from its Frontier Markets Index because of capital-mobility issues.

To help reduce currency volatility, the central bank will introduce over-the-counter naira futures trading, which would move non-urgent foreign-exchange demand from the spot to the derivatives market, Emefiele said. There will be no pre-determined spread on spot transactions, he said.

Investors may remain wary of buying naira assets given that Nigeria’s oil production, which accounts for the vast bulk of export earnings, has plummeted since February to an almost 30-year low because of an upsurge of militant attacks on crude and gas pipelines.


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E-Financial

SEC Shuts Over 400 Fraudulent Investment Schemes, Arrests Operators

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Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has warned that unregistered schemes pose serious risks for investors.

SEC Shuts Over 400 Fraudulent Investment Schemes, Arrests Operators

This is coming after the commission announced that it has shut down more than 400 fraudulent investment schemes across Nigeria, in intensified regulatory crackdown on illegal investment activities and a stronger push to protect investors.

SEC also said that several suspects linked to these schemes are currently under prosecution.

The disclosure was made by Bola Ajomale, executive commissioner for Operations, SEC, during the financial literacy forum “The Money Fair,” organized by Nairametrics in Lagos.

Ajomale, who represented Dr. Emomotimi Agama, director-general, SEC, emphasized the regulator’s commitment to safeguarding market confidence amid a surge in unregulated investment platforms.

“Over the last three years, we have investigated and shut down at least 400 of these so-called schemes,” Ajomale said.

“We saw a tremendous increase in them last year, and a number of those involved have been arrested and prosecuted.”

If the investment product or the operator is not registered with the SEC, they have no business asking you to put your money there.”

The SEC has intensified its enforcement measures alongside public awareness campaigns to curb the proliferation of illegal investment platforms.

Initiatives such as the “See It, Snap It” campaign and the “SEC Scam Alert” platform have been introduced to enable Nigerians to report suspicious schemes quickly, allowing regulators to act before these operations expand.

Ajomale noted that the regulator has adopted a multi-pronged strategy combining investigations, arrests, and investor education to enhance market integrity.

“We are not just shutting down illegal schemes; we are also empowering investors with the knowledge to identify and avoid fraudulent operators,” he said.

The crackdown comes as unregulated investment products continue to pose significant risks to Nigerian investors, particularly amid rising interest in digital and alternative investment platforms.

 

 


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Deepening Conflict, Oil Price Volatility, Inflation Scare

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By Matthew Anthony, Senior Market Analyst- Africa

Tensions in the Middle East are sending shockwaves through global markets, stoking fresh inflation concerns as oil prices climb.

Deepening conflict, Oil price volatility, Inflation Scare

As these tensions escalate, mounting fears of inflationary shocks could force central banks to rethink their 2026 playbooks.

Against this backdrop, Nigeria’s inflation eased to 15.06% in February, just before the Iran conflict erupted. Since then, gasoline prices have soared by more than 30% for Africa’s leading crude exporter, pushing transportation costs higher for everyday Nigerians.

Nigeria’s oil production has helped shield it from the war’s fallout. The currency has only dipped 0.3% against the dollar in the past two weeks.

However, these shifts may challenge the CBN’s plans to keep lowering interest rates. The Naira now trades at NGN1,385 per US dollar, up from NGN1,360 before tensions flared in the Middle East.

Outside of Nigeria, risk aversion returned to global markets on Tuesday as tensions in the Middle East sapped risk appetite.

The brief tech rally in the previous session merely served as a small distraction with equities on the back foot amid the overall caution.

All eyes remain on the ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz as Trump calls for other nations to secure the critical waterway.

Ultimately, this has injected oil prices with monstrous levels of volatility with Brent rallying above $103 a barrel on Tuesday.  Iran’s attacks on energy infrastructure around the Middle East have intensified fears around supply shocks, injecting oil bulls with renewed vigour.

To counter such shocks, the IEA launched its largest ever oil release amounting to 400million barrels of oil from their emergency stocks. In addition, the US issued its second temporary waiver for the purchase of Russian oil. Despite all of this, Brent is finding comfort at triple digits and could extend gains on geopolitical risk.

Gold remains on the backfoot despite the growing risk aversion.

A broadly stronger dollar and dwindling bets around lower US interest rates have dealt gold a double blow. Traders are only pricing in just one Fed cut in 2026 thanks to concerns around conflict-induced inflation.

Gold’s near-term outlook may be influenced by the Fed decision on Wednesday. No changes are expected but the Fed may be forced to reassess its policy strategy for 2026. Looking at the charts, gold is wobbling above $5000 as of writing. Weakness below this point may open a path toward $4900 while a rebound could see prices retest resistance at $5100.

Speaking of central banks, the RBA raised interest rates on Tuesday for a second consecutive meeting.

Growing concerns around conflict-induced inflation shocks may prompt central banks to reassess their policy strategies for 2026.

The Federal Reserve (Fed), European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BoE), among many others will be under the spotlight this week.

Market expectations have rapidly evaporated over the Fed cutting rates anytime while the BoE/ECB are seen potentially hiking rates by the end of the year if inflation persists. These sharp shifts in policy expectations may translate to heightened levels of volatility.


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Crypto Transactions Hit $96Bn in Nigeria -SEC

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Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) yesterday said that Nigeria’s digital finance ecosystem recorded about $96bn in cryptocurrency and other virtual asset transactions.

Crypto Transactions Hit $96Bn in Nigeria -SEC

Emomotimi Agama, director-general, SEC,

Emomotimi Agama, director-general, SEC, revealed this during a Citizens and Stakeholders Engagement Session organised by the Federal Ministry of Finance in Abuja.

He noted the the size of transactions within the digital asset space makes regulation necessary in order to protect investors and ensure transparency.

According to him, the regulatory framework for the sector was strengthened following the enactment of the Investment and Securities Act 2025, which gives the commission powers to regulate digital assets and other emerging financial technologies.

He said the law also confirms the SEC as the apex regulator of the capital market while introducing provisions aimed at monitoring systemic risks and aligning Nigeria’s market operations with global standards.

Agama said the Nigerian capital market has continued to support investment activities across the economy, adding that the commission approved ₦3.68 trillion worth of new capital market issues in 2024, covering both equities and fixed income instruments.

He added that the market played a major role in strengthening the banking sector during the recent recapitalisation exercise, with more than 31 banks raising funds through the capital market to meet new capital requirements.

The SEC director-general said the performance of the market has improved significantly in recent years, with total market capitalisation rising from ₦55 trillion in 2024 to about ₦127 trillion currently.

He added that the capital market’s contribution to the economy has also expanded, with the market capitalisation-to-GDP ratio rising from about 13 per cent to roughly 33 per cent.

According to him, the commission has introduced several measures aimed at protecting investors and building confidence in the market.

He disclosed that the regulator has issued more than 90 advisory notices warning Nigerians about suspicious investment schemes and risky financial offers.

Agama also said the commission has intensified its actions against fraudulent investment schemes, including Ponzi operations, while working with the Nigeria Police Force to investigate and prosecute offenders.

He warned that many people who fall victim to such schemes often invest in unregistered platforms promising unrealistic returns, advising investors to verify whether any investment opportunity is approved by the SEC before committing funds.

The SEC boss said the capital market has also supported infrastructure development across the country through bond issuances by state governments.

He explained that several public projects including markets, stadiums and other infrastructure have been financed through subnational bond issuances raised in the capital market.

According to him, Nigeria protects investors in state bonds through the Irrevocable Standing Payment Order (ISPO) system, which allows loan repayments to be deducted directly from states’ allocations from the Federation Account.

Agama said the commission has also established an Office of Municipal Fund Development to help state and local governments access capital market financing for development projects at the grassroots level.

He added that the SEC supported the launch of the Ministry of Finance Incorporated Real Estate Investment Fund (MREIF) to help address Nigeria’s housing deficit by providing long-term funding that allows Nigerians access to mortgages at single-digit interest rates.

Looking ahead, he said the commission is working to deepen the market by raising the capital market capitalisation-to-GDP ratio from about 30 per cent toward levels seen in emerging economies such as India, where the ratio stands at about 92 per cent.

Also speaking at the session, Mr. Raymond Omenka Omachi, permanent secretary of the Federal Ministry of Finance, addressed concerns about the performance of the federal budget, explaining that several factors have affected implementation.

He said Nigeria has faced challenges meeting the oil production benchmark of about 2.1 million barrels per day, while fluctuations in global oil prices have also affected revenue.

The Permanent Secretary added that the budget benchmark was set at $75 per barrel, but oil prices at some point fell below $60 per barrel, reducing expected government revenue.

He noted that rising debt servicing obligations and increased salary commitments have also placed pressure on available funds.

According to him, the government is taking steps to improve the situation through regular monitoring of revenue and expenditure.

He said the ministry now holds weekly cash management meetings every Monday to review government finances and identify ways to boost revenue performance.

The Permanent Secretary added that the government expects improvements once Nigeria returns to operating a single budget cycle, noting that plans are underway to collapse overlapping budgets so that the country will run only one national budget from 2026 onward.


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