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Naira Tumbles, to Hit N350/Dollar Today as CBN Ends Peg

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Godwin Emefiele, Governor, Central Bank of Nigeria
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Pent-up demand for dollars may push Nigeria’s naira at least 20 percent weaker when the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) allows the currency of Africa’s biggest economy to float freely on Monday, said analysts including Renaissance Capital Ltd. and Exotix Partners LLP.

Bloomberg reported that demand for foreign currency has built up to about $3 billion since capital controls were imposed 15 months ago to defend the currency’s peg of 197-199 per dollar, according to Chapel Hill Denham Securities Ltd.

Elsewhere, the Nation newspapers reported that the interbank market, which opens by 9.00am and closes at 2.00pm, will see the naira-dollar exchange rate in a volatile state.

The newspaper said that the local currency is likely to exchange around N340/N350 against the greenback.

But Bloomberg added that even as the naira weakens, local stocks may extend the best three-day rally since April 2015 in anticipation of a return by foreign investors and as the risk of exclusion from global indexes fades.

Banks may gain as the policy change allows them to profit from foreign-exchange volatility and boost trading income, analysts at Exotix said.

“We think the rate will be around 250 or 260 per dollar” when the naira starts trading on the interbank market, said Tajudeen Ibrahim, head of equity research at Lagos-based Chapel Hill Denham.

The central bank will probably help clear demand by selling dollars, he said, moderating potential volatility.

Central bank Governor Godwin Emefiele announced the end of the currency peg on June 15, surprising analysts who had expected the oil producer to turn to a two-tiered system with tighter controls on the exchange rate. Nigeria has held the peg since March 2015, spending about $2.7 billion — 9.3 percent of its foreign reserves — on the measure this year, even as other oil exporters devalued their currencies as crude prices slumped by more than half since 2014.

Three-month non-deliverable naira forwards jumped to a record 333 per dollar on June 15 after Emefiele announced the changes. On the black market, dollars changed hands for 350 naira on Friday, Lagos-based Everdon Bureau de Change said by e-mail.

The naira could start trading at 260 per dollar, potentially weakening to 390 by year-end, before retracing, Renaissance said in a June 16 note.
‘Never Imagined’

“We never imagined a free-floating naira,” Johannesburg-based analyst Yvonne Mhango said. “This will release a pressure valve for the economy. We see the economy beginning to thaw and green shoots emerge possibly as soon as a year from now. Before then, we believe the macro picture will deteriorate.”

The naira could initially weaken beyond 300 to the dollar, before reaching “fair value” of 280 to 290, said Alan Cameron, London-based economist at Exotix.

Investment into Nigeria has shriveled as foreigners are deterred by capital controls, while local businesses have struggled to import raw materials and equipment. International carriers including United Airlines and Iberia have halted operations in the West African country, saying they couldn’t move revenue out.

“We see a lot of volatility from high dollar demand, because as of today, if you get 10 percent of your request you’re lucky,’’ Olubunmi Asaolu, an analyst at Lagos-based FBN Quest said by phone. While the naira could stabilize at about 290 per dollar, any move toward 350 “will cause mayhem” and prompt the central bank to moderate the drop by supplying additional greenbacks.

The central bank will select a group of around 10 primary dealers through which the naira will be traded. There will only be one official exchange rate and the bank will intervene in the market to buy or sell foreign exchange “as the need arises,” Emefiele said as he unveiled the new policy.

Demand for dollars won’t be satisfied on Monday alone and may take more than a week to clear, said Ibrahim at Chapel Hill. It might also be a while before buyers from abroad feel confident enough to acquire Nigerian assets, he said.

“The new market will start off slowly as investors will initially be cautious as they try to understand it,” Ibrahim said. “We’re unlikely to see foreign investors coming back very quickly. They’ll take their time. It might be a couple of weeks before we see new foreign money being invested.”

Heineken NV, which controls Nigeria’s largest brewer, views a rate of 250 to 280 naira per euro and 283 to 316 per dollar as “not that bad,” said Chief Financial Officer Laurence Debroux. Not having access to hard currency has been an obstacle to operating in Nigeria and a return of liquidity in Africa’s most-populous nation would be “great,” he told a June 16 investor meeting.

Three-month non-deliverable naira forwards rose 1.6 percent to 320 per dollar on June 17, suggesting traders expect the Nigerian currency to trade around that level in the market. Stocks climbed 2.7 percent on June 17, capping an 8.2 percent three-day rally, the best since April 2015. The yield on Nigeria’s 2023 dollar bonds dropped 4 basis points to 7.2 percent, after debt gained the most since 2014 on June 15.

The turnabout in foreign-exchange policy came after gross domestic product contracted in the three months through March for the first time since 2004 and inflation accelerated to 15.6 percent in May. MSCI Inc. said June 15 — before the central bank’s announcement — it may drop Nigerian stocks from its Frontier Markets Index because of capital-mobility issues.

To help reduce currency volatility, the central bank will introduce over-the-counter naira futures trading, which would move non-urgent foreign-exchange demand from the spot to the derivatives market, Emefiele said. There will be no pre-determined spread on spot transactions, he said.

Investors may remain wary of buying naira assets given that Nigeria’s oil production, which accounts for the vast bulk of export earnings, has plummeted since February to an almost 30-year low because of an upsurge of militant attacks on crude and gas pipelines.


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Access Bank’s Digital Innovation Earns Top Financial Inclusion Award

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Access Bank Plc has been awarded the prestigious Financial Inclusion Impact Award (Unified) at Nexus 2025, Qore’s flagship customer experience and financial infrastructure summit, in recognition of its groundbreaking digital innovations that have expanded financial access to millions across Africa.

The annual Nexus event, widely regarded as a leading platform for showcasing transformative financial technology on the continent, celebrated institutions driving measurable impact through digital transformation.

Access Bank stood out for its suite of innovative digital banking platforms that have successfully reached underserved communities, enabling financial participation for individuals and small businesses previously excluded from traditional banking services.

This latest accolade adds to Access Bank’s growing list of Nexus honors, having previously secured the Purpose Award in 2023 and the Best Commercial Bank in Technology Adoption Across Africa in 2024.

Speaking on the recognition, Ms. Chizoba Iheme, group head DSA and Beta Proposition, said, “We are truly honored to receive the Nexus Award for Financial Inclusion Impact (Unified). This recognition reinforces Access Bank’s long-standing commitment to breaking barriers and expanding financial access for individuals and businesses across Nigeria and beyond.

“At Access Bank, financial inclusion is more than a mandate, as it is a responsibility we proudly uphold as we continue to design innovative solutions that empower underserved communities. This award strengthens our resolve to keep driving sustainable impact and to ensure that no one is left behind in the financial ecosystem.”

Emeka Emetarom, chief executive officer of Qore, said, “At Qore, we are proud to power the infrastructure that enables real, scalable financial inclusion across Africa. Our partnership with Access Bank continues to demonstrate what is possible when bold vision, technology, and flawless execution come together.”

The recent event, hosted by Qore, brought together stakeholders across the financial services ecosystem, including commercial banks, microfinance banks, fintech companies, regulatory bodies, and government officials. Nexus 2025 provided a platform for industry leaders to discuss building the rails for Africa’s credit revolution and the critical role seamless digital banking must play in shaping this future.


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CBN’s New Cash Policy: A Welcome Liberalisation or a Risky Retreat?

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By Blaise Udunze

On December 2, 2025, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) announced a policy that significantly departs from the cash-restriction measures Nigerians have faced lately. The apex bank abolished restrictions on cash deposits. Increased the weekly cash withdrawal limits to N500,000 for individuals and N5 million for corporates while substituting the earlier monthly limits of N5 million and N10 million respectively. These modifications, which will be effective from January 1, 2026, represent what the CBN describes as the necessity to “streamline provisions to reflect present-day realities.”

CBN’s New Cash Policy: A Welcome Liberalisation or a Risky Retreat?

CBN

Authorized by the Director of Financial Policy & Regulation, Dr. Rita I. Sike, the policy overhaul aims to lower cash-management expenses, improve security, and lessen money-laundering threats related to Nigeria’s significant dependence on physical cash. Daily ATM withdrawal limits stay fixed at N100,000 and count toward the total cap. Withdrawals exceeding the limits incur charges of three percent for individuals and five percent for companies, with the revenues divided: 40 percent to the CBN and 60 percent to the banks.

This update comes three years following the disputed 2022-2023 cash redesign crisis at a time characterized by extreme cash deficits, extended lines at banks, and devastating impacts on the informal economy. Consequently, the newest order generates responses: praise from individuals who consider it delayed aid, disapproval from those perceiving it as a bewildering backtrack, and concern from those apprehensive about potential enduring hazards.

Experts Applaud a More Realistic Modification

For economists, in a publication by Nairametrics showed that the action taken by the CBN signifies much-needed practicality. Dr. Salisu Ahmed, an economist based in Abuja, refers to the updated limits as “a step,” praising the CBN for gaining a clearer insight into “cash management practices in a predominantly informal economy.”

He stated that the changes will alleviate the difficulties faced by families and small enterprises due to restrictions. Rigid withdrawal caps had limited transactions, made small-scale commerce more difficult, and caused numerous businesses to experience cash-flow problems. “This adjustment signifies a response from the CBN recognizing the challenges Nigerians face daily and easing rules that previously hindered commerce and individual management,” he clarified.

Banking analyst, David Omale, echoes this view, seeing the CBN’s action as a sign of responsiveness. He points out that higher limits could “enhance liquidity for firms facing challenges from inflation, supply-chain issues and unpredictable cash flows.”

In an economy in which over 60 percent of trade is informal and where the adoption of digital payments varies across different socio-economic groups, experts suggest the updated limits correspond more accurately to real-world conditions. These limits offer businesses flexibility to reinstate transactional liberty and may help recover public confidence diminished by previous cash shortages.

Critics Caution About Continuing Disparities and New Threats

However, the praise is not universally shared. Numerous specialists and industry participants contend that the modifications, although appreciated, are inadequate or might even be detrimental.

Financial strategist Nnenna Okafor contends that the updated limits are insufficient for traders and micro-businesses that depend largely on cash to sustain their operations amid challenges. Due to increasing product prices, logistical difficulties, and unreliable digital banking services in regions, she asserts that numerous Nigerians will still need more liquidity than the new thresholds to stay viable.

Within PoS operators’ players, in Nigeria’s payment system, the response is notably divided.

PoS Operators Split

Certain PoS agents appreciate the modifications, anticipating that they will:

–       Reduce friction with banks over “flagged” transactions

–       Facilitate processes for clients requiring withdrawals

–       Rebuild trust after months of cash shortages

Others convey concern. A PoS operator in Lagos cautions that greater cash availability could hinder the adoption of payments. “While easier access to cash can address problems, it may also decrease dependence on PoS terminals and other digital payment solutions that provide long-term security and efficiency,” she remarked.

She argues that if the CBN does not combine the policy with targeted incentives to encourage payment uptake, Nigeria runs the risk of regressing into deep-rooted reliance on cash.

Another operator in Abuja points out a different issue that has to do with unstable cash supply at numerous commercial banks. He insists that simply boosting withdrawal limits does not automatically fix supply shortages. “If banks cannot consistently provide cash, raising limits fails to solve the issue,” he stated.

Other operators also caution that the new setting might push fintech firms out of the market, which possibly allows monopolies to form since only big payment firms can endure the transition back to increased cash usage.

Experts in Security Alert to Increasing Threats, from Crime

Apart from operational issues, security experts have expressed concerns about the dangers linked to greater cash flow.

Abas Ogendengbe, a security expert at Anold Consulting Ltd., warns that increased access to amounts without strict controls “opens up risks for theft, fraud and money laundering.” He contends that without improvements in surveillance transaction tracking and reporting frameworks by banks, criminal groups might take advantage of the restrictions.

Nigeria continues to confront:

–       High rates of petty theft

–       Organised criminal cash-for-goods networks

–       Ransom-based criminality

–       Fraudulent cash-flow manipulation

He contends that a policy boosting the amount of currency in circulation should consequently be accompanied by enhanced institutional protections, rather than diminished ones.

Advantages of the New Policy: Relief, Liquidity, and Business Freedom

 Although it has faced criticism, the CBN’s decision carries benefits:

1. Increased Liquidity for the Informal Sector

Small-scale merchants, farm producers, haulers, craftsmen, and market participants relying significantly on cash will experience ease in transferring money, purchasing stock, and expanding their businesses.

2. Reduced Transaction Friction

Companies that once faced limiting restrictions now recover agility, enhancing business continuity and lowering administrative challenges.

3. Restoration of Public Trust

After the trauma of the cash scarcity era, easing restrictions may slowly rebuild confidence in the banking system and encourage more people to save and transact through formal channels.

4. Policy Simplicity

The updated limits, while still restricted, are more straightforward and less administrative compared to the special-authorization system.

The Disadvantages: Policy Volatility, Inflationary Risks, and Stunted Digitalisation

Nonetheless, the policy change is also accompanied by drawbacks:

1. Weakening of Monetary Policy Credibility

Regular significant reversals indicate instability and undermine confidence. A central bank needs to be consistent and foreseeable; Nigeria’s policy environment has shifted in the contrary.

2. Potential for More Money Laundering

Unlimited cash deposits and increased withdrawal limits are inconsistent with standards for preventing illegal financial transactions.

3. Undermining Digital Payment Growth

The increase in fintech was expedited amidst cash availability. A return to reliance on cash might hinder innovation. Dampen the use of safer trackable digital methods.

4. Increased Risk of Robbery and Cash-Based Crime

An increased amount of cash in use results in tangible currency to be stolen additional opportunities for criminals and amplified operational difficulties for the police.

5. Higher Costs of Cash Management

The processes of currency production, circulation, and safeguarding place financial strains on the banking sector and the CBN.

Policy Details and Operational Complexities

The CBN’s circular offers instructions for operations:

–       Excess withdrawal charges:

3 percent for individuals

5 percent for corporates

–       Revenue sharing:

40 percent to CBN, 60 percent to banks

–       Withdrawals from ATMs and PoS terminals contribute to the limit, highlighting the importance for customers to monitor where their withdrawals originate.

–       ATMs can now be loaded with all denominations, although third-party cheque cashing is still limited to N100,000.

–       Exemptions are maintained for government revenue accounts, microfinance banks, and primary mortgage banks.

–       The removal of exemptions for embassies and donor agencies is a move that some parties consider diplomatically risky.

The CBN frames this policy change as a balance, boosting liquidity while still maintaining the nation’s goal of a cashless economy. Nevertheless, its effectiveness depends on the ability of the government and financial institutions to encourage payments while addressing the security challenges posed by greater cash circulation.

A Relief Today, a Question Mark Tomorrow

The CBN’s updated cash-policy structure provides support for families, small enterprises, and the informal sector. It addresses some of the severe effects of previous policies and shows a readiness, though delayed, to adjust to practical realities.

However, the enduring consequences are complex. The policy creates openings, as money laundering hampers progress in payments, increases security threats, and shows a regulatory environment grappling with achieving stability and trustworthiness.

Nigeria is at an intersection. While cash can relieve hardships, it cannot shape the future economic landscape. The current task is to apply this policy without hindering progress, undermining financial integrity, or jeopardizing monetary stability.

The question of whether this constitutes a liberalisation or an expensive withdrawal will in the end hinge on a single element, the CBN’s ability to pair increased liquidity with stronger oversight, steadfast policy direction, and sustained digital-payment incentives.

Only then can Nigeria avoid sliding backward and instead build a financial system that truly reflects the realities of its people, its economy, and its future.

Blaise, a journalist and PR professional, writes from Lagos, can be reached via: [email protected]


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Senate Considers Bill to Empower CBN to Regulate Fintech

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Senate on Thursday began debate on a bill seeking to amend the Banks and Other Financial Institutions Act (BOFIA) 2020 to empower the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to designate and supervise systemically important non-bank financial institutions, particularly major fintech operators whose activities now constitute critical national infrastructure.

Senate Considers Bill to Empower CBN to Regulate Fintech

Leading the debate, Tokunbo Abiru, sponsor of the bill and chairman of the Senate Committee on Banking, Insurance and Other Financial Institutions, said the amendment had become urgent due to the rapid transformation of Nigeria’s financial ecosystem and the emergence of large technology-enabled service providers operating at a scale previously unseen in the country.

Abiru noted that fintechs such as mobile money operators, payment service banks, wallet providers, digital lenders and switching companies now serve tens of millions of Nigerians, process huge daily transaction volumes and hold vast pools of sensitive financial data, yet operate within a regulatory framework that has not fully evolved to match their systemic importance.

“The reality today is that a non-bank institution, because of its market dominance, data concentration, customer reach or technological capacity, may pose risks equal to or even greater than those posed by a traditional bank,” Abiru said.

“We are therefore confronted with a regulatory gap that leaves critical parts of the financial system operating outside the highest tier of statutory oversight. This bill seeks to correct that mischief.”

He warned that without modernising BOFIA, the country risked exposing itself to data insecurity, foreign control of sensitive financial infrastructure and vulnerabilities that could undermine national security.

The senator stressed that many fintechs operate across foreign-owned networks, store customer data offshore, or use cloud systems outside regulatory reach, raising concerns around data sovereignty.

“Today, we cannot say with certainty where all the financial and behavioural data processed by some of these institutions is stored, who has access to it, or which foreign jurisdictions may lay claim to it,” he said.

Abiru recalled the temporary CBN restriction on fintech onboarding in April 2024, following issues around KYC compliance, money-laundering red flags and suspicious transactions, a development that, he said, demonstrated the limitations of existing regulatory tools.

The amendment bill proposes five key objectives, including establishing a statutory framework for designating systemically important institutions, creating a national registry of fintechs, empowering the CBN to impose enhanced supervisory requirements, strengthening data sovereignty, and improving consumer protection.

He dismissed suggestions that a new regulatory agency should be created for fintech oversight, arguing that such duplication would fragment regulation and undermine efficiency.

“Fintech regulation is deeply intertwined with monetary policy, payments oversight, prudential supervision, and systemic-risk monitoring, functions that already reside naturally within the Central Bank,” he said.

“International best practice overwhelmingly favours integrating fintech oversight within existing regulators, not creating new bureaucracies.”

Abiru urged the Senate to support the bill, which carries no financial implications under Senate rules.

Contributing to the debate, Adams Oshiomhole, former president of the Nigerian Labour Congress (NLC), shared the experience of how his accounts were once hacked, disclosing that the hackers accessed him through one of the Fintech banks.

Oshiomhole also said the identities of most of the key owners of online operators were not known and might not be held accountable for infractions since there was no law binding them to any commitments.

“I know the directors of our regular banks, but I can’t say the same of these Fintech banks.

“I don’t know the directors of MoniePoint, Opay and all others”, he added.

Oshiomhole further argued that when properly regulated through an enabling law, the operations of online financial institutions would better serve the interest of Nigerians.

Senators unanimously passed the bill for second reading and referred it to its Committee on Banking, Insurance and Other Financial Institutions for more legislative work.


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