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Nigeria and Oil: Looking Beyond Price Collapse Towards Post Recovery Savings (Part 1)

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Austin Okere
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By Austin Okere

“Oil prices hit three-year high as gas crunch starts to affect crude market” was the screaming headline in the Financial Times of September 27, 2021, with a rider ‘Goldman Sachs lifts year-end Brent forecast to $90 a barrel on widening ‘supply-demand deficit’.

The surge in crude oil prices, surpassing $82 a barrel on October 11, 2021, presents Nigeria with another golden opportunity that should not be floundered. I wrote this article on April 20, 2016, after the colossal collapse in Oil prices below $37 a barrel – It is as relevant now as it was then – probably more crucial now given our dire circumstances.

The article is in two parts hereunder:

The recurrent mistake we keep making as a Nation is failing to anticipate and plan for our oil windfalls. There have been many boom opportunities since Nigeria joined the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in 1971; Oil prices increased by 400% in six short months after the Yom Kippur War following the Arab Oil Embargo. Crude prices doubled from $14 in 1978 to $35 per barrel in 1981 following the Iran/Iraq war.

The price of crude oil spiked in 1990 with the uncertainties associated the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and the ensuring Gulf War – the so called ‘Gulf War windfall’ under then Head of State Ibrahim Babangida. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration shows that the latest windfall happened between February 2011 and August 2014, under the Goodluck Jonathan presidency, when oil prices were much in excess of $100 per barrel. Another golden opportunity was squandered, characterised by organised kleptocracy of epic proportions as has now come to light.

During this same period Saudi Arabia has amassed a whopping $593b in foreign exchange reserves and has recently announced that it is creating a $2 trillion mega-sovereign wealth fund, funded by sales of current petroleum industry assets, to prepare itself for an age when oil no longer dominates the global economy. Coming closer home, Algeria, the second biggest African oil producer, with 1.9mbpd has accumulated foreign reserves of $156b and a sovereign wealth fund of $50b.

Nigeria, by far the biggest producer in Africa with 2.5mbpd has only managed foreign reserves of $28b and a sovereign wealth fund of a paltry $2.9b – about 5% that of Algeria.

The major difference being that while the Algerians saved for a rainy day during the boom years, Nigeria was busy squandering her wealth, with nothing to show by way of infrastructure or any solid investments.

Yet Nigeria was able to balance her budget, pay off her debts and save over $62b in foreign reserves during the Obasanjo presidency from 1999 to 2007, even though the price of crude was mostly under $40 per barrel, except for the two years between 2005 and 2007 when it hovered between $50 and $75 dollars per barrel.

It is bothersome that with the same level of oil price, Nigeria today is struggling to balance her budget and has resorted to aggressive borrowing to finance the deficit, inadvertently driving us back to where we were before escaping from the huge burden of sovereign debt and the attendant debilitating impact of debt servicing.

I believe that Nigeria can save as much as $36.5b in the coming year if oil prices recover towards the end of 2016 and through 2017 to the projected $80 per barrel. This assumes we have all agreed that the current crises is much too painful and too precious to waste.

It can actually be a blessing in disguise, affording us the much needed leverage to deliberately diversify our economy away from the over dependence on oil, and attempt to become self-sufficient in every low hanging opportunity such as feeding ourselves. There is a reason why the Chinese use the same word for challenge and opportunity; behind every challenge is an opportunity.

We must seize this golden opportunity with both hands and make the structural changes that will lead us to true prosperity as a nation. Almost every third Nigerian businessman you come across claims to be into Oil and Gas; usually, briefcase contractors who manage to have their ‘papers’ stamped, and proceed to collect money from the treasury of our commonwealth. Yet oil contributed only 6.4% to GDP growth in 2015.

An often overlooked area for rapid economic growth is telecoms, entertainment and media. At a recent event in Lagos, Dr. Doyin Salami, lecturer at Lagos Business School, remarked that ‘The telecommunication sector grew Nigeria’s GDP by 8.7% in 2015, generating spill overs, with uptakes in financial transactions technology and payment systems, e-commerce facilitation and proliferation of transport services, while making the offering of the burgeoning entertainment industry ubiquitous’.

Quite simply, if each of the 34 million MSME’s in Nigeria could be supported with technology to improve their businesses through online presence and seamless bookkeeping to the point of employing one more staff, they would create an additional 34 million jobs, much more than the government can ever provide. I totally agree with Dr. Salami that Nigeria’s economy has systematically and strategically diversified along the lines of technology and other services sector without Nigerians noticing.  The services sector today contributes as much as 52% of Nigeria’s GDP.

Agriculture is also another sector that could do with special attention. If we strive to produce what we eat, we will not only be saving a whopping $6b from our import bill, but also provide the opportunity for inclusive growth, with the spill over effects down the value chain, from logistics and transportation to light manufacturing. But we need to make the right investments in infrastructure such as roads and rail transport linking farms with their food processors and markets.

The change that will make all this happen is not the ‘outsourced variety’ where we believe that we can carry on with business as usual, or sit back and fold our arms while only the President delivers the promised change. All hands must be on deck, and we each have to be the change we desire.

The elephant in the room question is; who says oil prices will reach $80 per barrel?

Austin Okere is the Founder of CWG Plc, the largest ICT Company on the Nigerian Stock Exchange & Entrepreneur in Residence at CBS, New York. Austin also serves on the Advisory Board of the Global Business School Network, and on the World Economic Forum Global Agenda Council on Innovation and Intrapreneurship. Austin now runs the Ausso Leadership Academy focused on Business and Entrepreneurial Mentorship


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General News

Union Bank Looted: How Former Directors Gambled with Billions and Nearly Destroyed a National Bank

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The former directors and owners of Union Bank did not just fail, they engineered a financial disaster. They manipulated reports, hid massive losses, diverted foreign loans and treated depositors’ money like a private wallet.

 

Union Bank Looted: How Former Directors Gambled with Billions and Nearly Destroyed a National Bank

Union Bank

Investigators uncovered billions of dollars in misconduct. These directors buried over ₦250 billion in losses, piled a $300 million foreign loan onto the bank without protection and then forced Union Bank to carry the burden. They even used the bank’s own funds to buy its shares, an outrageous betrayal of trust.

It didn’t stop there. Over $100 million was pulled out improperly, leaving the bank exposed and struggling. Loans meant for customers were secretly diverted into shady transactions. False reports were sent to lenders. The system was deliberately deceived.

This was not incompetence. It was exploitation.

By 2025, their actions had created nearly ₦400 billion in losses and over ₦147 billion in unpaid charges. The bank was on the edge.

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) stepped in just in time. Without that intervention, Union Bank could have collapsed, dragging others down with it.

Now, the bank is stabilising. But let’s be clear: this recovery is happening in spite of those former directors, not because of them.

They didn’t build value. They destroyed it.

And Nigerians deserve to never forget who was responsible.


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FG, Others Say Nigeria Wastes 38m Tonnes of Food Annually

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Federal government, The European Union (EU), and the United Nations Industrial Development Organisation (UNIDO) have called for urgent and coordinated action to curb food waste and promote sustainable consumption and production practices.

FG, Others Say Nigeria Wastes 38m Tonnes of Food Annually

They warned that when food is wasted, the water, energy, and labour invested in its production are also lost, accelerating climate change and undermining global efforts to build a zero-waste, circular economy.

Speaking in Abuja at the commemoration of this year’s International Zero Waste Day, themed “Food Waste Reduction: Minimisation and Valorisation,” Zissimos Vergos, deputy Ambassador of the EU Delegation to Nigeria and ECOWAS, disclosed that Nigeria wastes approximately 38 million tonnes of food annually, more than any other country in Africa.

He further noted that globally, in 2022 alone, nearly one billion tonnes of food—almost one-fifth of all food available to consumers—was wasted.

“This is not just a loss of food; it is a squandering of precious resources, a missed opportunity to combat hunger, and a direct threat to our planet’s health,” he said.

Vergos stressed that food loss and waste are major drivers of environmental degradation, contributing up to 10 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions—nearly five times the emissions of the entire aviation sector—and accounting for as much as 40 per cent of global methane emissions.

Highlighting Nigeria’s ongoing efforts, he said: “The Nigeria Circular Economy Roadmap, the establishment of the Interministerial Circular Economy Committee, the push to develop a National Plastic Waste Management Regulation, these are not small gestures. These are structural shifts.

“They signal that Nigeria is not waiting for someone else to solve its problem; it is building the system to solve it from within. Now, today’s theme: food waste reduction, minimisation and valorisation, is the right conversation at the right moment.”

Vergos also shared three key lessons from the EU’s experience to support Nigeria’s efforts. First, he urged investment in rural infrastructure, including roads, storage, and cold chains, to address post-harvest losses beyond the farm gate. Second, he emphasised the need to promote agro-processing by converting fresh produce into value-added products such as tomato paste and cassava flour, while linking smallholder farmers to processors and markets.

Third, he called for embedding zero-waste principles, recycling, and resource efficiency into school curricula from the primary level to foster a culture of sustainability among future generations.

Reaffirming the EU’s commitment, he stated, “The EU stands ready to be your partner in that work, through funding, through technical cooperation, and through genuine solidarity.”

In his keynote address, Balarabe Abbas Lawal, minister of Environment, reiterated the Federal Government’s commitment to environmental protection and sustainable practices aimed at safeguarding the health and well-being of Nigerians.

“Food waste remains a significant challenge that affects not only our environment but also our economy and society. Every discarded meal represents wasted resources such as water, energy, labour, and capital, while Nigerians continue to face food insecurity.

Addressing food waste is therefore central to sustainable development and ensuring a healthier future for all,” he said.

He added: “The Federal Ministry of Environment, in this year’s national appropriation, has developed projects on food waste elimination in major markets around Nigeria. And this is to show you that the Federal Ministry of Environment is tackling the issues of food waste at its core, especially post-harvest losses.”

Stressing the broader impact, he noted that addressing food waste aligns with the Ministry’s core objectives. “Reducing food waste will not only help to lower pollution and greenhouse gases, but also conserve valuable resources and promote more efficient and responsible consumption patterns across households, businesses, and institutions,” he added.

Also speaking, Amb. Philbert Johnson, Director and Representative of UNIDO’s Sub-Regional Office in Nigeria, emphasised that food must not be wasted, especially in a country grappling with food insecurity and malnutrition.

“Food is far more than a commodity: it is a foundation of wealth, a driver of health, and a pillar of security. It sustains our homes, supports industries, and underpins the stability of our societies.

“When food systems function efficiently, they generate income, enhance resilience, and improve well-being. When food systems fail, when food is lost or wasted, the consequences ripple across our economies, our environment, and our communities.”

He reaffirmed UNIDO’s commitment to supporting Nigeria in building resilient, inclusive, and sustainable agro-industrial systems.


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FG Orders Installation of 5000 CCTV Cameras for Surveillance in Plateau

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President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has directed the immediate installation of 5,000 CCTV cameras across identified flashpoints in Plateau State as part of urgent measures to address the worsening security situation in the state.

FG Orders Installation of 5000 CCTV Cameras for Surveillance in Plateau

The President gave the directive during an emergency visit to Plateau on Thursday, where he held a brief stakeholders’ meeting at the Yakubu Gowon Airport following the recent killings in Angwan Rukuba, Jos, where at least 28 persons were killed by unidentified gunmen.

Tinubu also approved the formation of a delegation of key stakeholders to engage in further deliberations on lasting solutions to the security challenges in the state.

He condoled with families of the victims and directed that support be provided to cushion their losses.

President Bola Tinubu while expressing deep sympathy to families of victims said the installation of surveillance cameras was part of a deliberate move towards addressing the kind of attacks that befell residence of the recent attack in the State.

In his remarks, Governor Caleb Mutfwang appreciated the President’s visit and show of concern, but expressed worry over the recent wave of attacks in the state, describing the situation as disturbing and requiring urgent attention.

The meeting had in attendance, former Governors, serving and former National and State Assembly members, traditional rulers, government appointees as well as relatives of those killed in the Angwan Rukuba attack.


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