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Nigeria Economy – A New Quarter but Same Old Story

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By Lukman Otunuga, Senior Research Analyst at FXTM,

Africa’s largest economy entered the new quarter with a strong likelihood of following the same old story, namely COVID-19 headwinds, recessionary trends and widespread local and global market uncertainty.

What are the chances of a plot twist?

In a year full of twists and turns, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) surprised investors with a 100 basis point interest rate cut from 12.5 percent to 11.5 percent. The monetary policy signal is a green light for more affordable lending which could stimulate economic growth and temper recessionary pressures. However, the same green light could speed up the inflationary pressures which weigh on the economy.

The currency markets may view the CBN’s rate cut as a sign that monetary policy no longer prioritises foreign investors seeking high returns on deposits.

Until now, the CBN’s hawkish monetary policy helped to maintain and grow the banking system’s foreign currency reserves, providing the Naira with a cushion against further weakness. The current weakening global and domestic economic outlook does not support a high-interest rate environment in the short term. Faced with a protracted recession or runaway inflation, the CBN appears to have chosen the lesser of two evils. The central bank’s latest statement indicates that high interest rates have not been successful in checking inflation, which the CBN blames on structural factors like rising fuel and electricity prices.

This raises the question of why an Oil-producing country faces inflation in fuel and electricity prices when fossil fuels are locally produced and ought to be more affordable. The answer is the strange economic distortion created by COVID-19. In this case, Nigeria applied to borrow $3.4 Billion from the IMF in order to bail out the economy because of the COVID-19 pandemic. The money will have to be repaid – cue a hike in electricity tariffs to increase government revenues from utilities and bolster its repayment capacity. This would be credit-positive as the last thing Nigeria needs in such extraordinary times are doubts over its creditworthiness.

Weaker global Oil prices make Nigeria’s creditworthiness even more of an important factor because the state is hard-pressed to cover its budgetary needs in the current climate of low demand for crude Oil.

Now that the CBN has put checking inflation lower down in its priorities, does this signal further rate cuts in the near future?

The case for further pandemic-driven rate cuts appears to be strong. The COVID-19 outbreak shows no signs of abating. On the contrary, at the time of writing, the number of new cases in Nigeria is on the rise after lockdowns eased. Further monetary stimulus to the economy appears unavoidable.

Of course, it all depends on what happens with inflation. If the inflation rate keeps rising in sectors like fuel, electricity and food it may drag on consumer spending, outstripping the economic benefits of lower interest rates. Medical costs have also risen because of COVID-19, according to the August inflation statistics.

The pandemic comes at a time when Nigeria is exposed to external and domestic risks. Locally, the drive to diversify the economy stayed stuck in first gear. Border clashes between herders and farmers led to border closures, further dampening economic activity. Externally, Oil prices remain in a slump, the US Dollar is appreciating and global sentiment struggles with the COVID-19 circumstances.

Further elevating fears over a technical recession in Nigeria, the World Bank forecasts an economic contraction of 3.2 percent for the full-year 2020, a five percent drop from its previous projection.

Summing up, Nigeria’s outlook remains influenced by the same old themes. If Oil prices stay depressed, foreign currency reserves and government revenues will likely decline. Low Oil prices also impact the CBN’s capacity to defend the Naira. A falling Naira could accelerate inflation and further weigh on economic growth. Will the final quarter of 2020 see a continuation of these themes, or will the economy offer a positive surprise?

The banking sector remains a bright spot in the cloudy outlook. Easier borrowing terms might boost the banking sector’s income while encouraging economic activity. Another bright spot is that growth in China has returned, promising to hike demand in the Oil markets and further supporting Oil prices.

After the year we’ve had so far, one thing’s sure: surprises are only to be expected.


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SERAP Sues CCB over Electoral Act, New Tax law

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Socio-Economic Rights and Accountability Project (SERAP) has filed a lawsuit against the Code of Conduct Bureau (CCB) over its failure to investigate an alleged abuse of office in the National Assembly regarding the amendments to the Electoral Act and tax reform laws.

SERAP Sues CCB over Electoral Act, New Tax law

“Public officers hold their offices in trust for the people and must not deploy official power for personal or sectional advantage,” SERAP said in a statement on Sunday.

In the suit marked FHC/ABJ/CS/634/2026, SERAP is seeking an order of mandamus to compel the CCB to immediately probe lawmakers and executive officials involved in the processes.

SERAP specifically wants the CCB to investigate claims that critical provisions on electronic transmission of election results were secretly removed from the Electoral Act Amendment Bill, as well as alleged discrepancies between the tax reform bills passed by the National Assembly and the versions signed into law.

The group is also asking the CCB to refer any public officers found guilty of violating the Code of Conduct to the Code of Conduct Tribunal for prosecution.

No date has been fixed for the hearing.

The statement reads, “We’re also seeking an order of mandamus to direct and compel @CCBNigeria to probe the allegations that certain lawmakers and officers of the executive branch unlawfully altered some aspects of the tax reform bills, which resulted in differences between the tax laws passed by lawmakers and the gazetted copy available to the public.”

SERAP emphasised that granting the reliefs sought would help address critical concerns relating to conflict of interest, abuse of office, non-disclosure of interests, and reinforce adherence to due process.

The group added that, “It would serve to curb the erosion of the Code of Conduct for Public Officers in the exercise of legislative powers.”

“Where lawmaking is shaped by abuse of office and conflict of interest, it ceases to be a legitimate exercise of constitutional and fiduciary responsibility and becomes a legal and ethical infraction prohibited under the Code of Conduct for Public Officers,” the statement concluded.


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Tinubu Approves N3.3 Trillion Payment Plan to Boost Power Supply

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President Bola Tinubu has approved a N3.3 trillion payment plan aimed at settling long-standing debts in Nigeria’s power sector, in a move expected to improve electricity supply and restore investor confidence.

Tinubu Approves N3.3 Trillion Payment Plan to Boost Power Supply

The development was disclosed in a statement issued on Sunday by Bayo Onanuga, special adviser to the President on Information and Strategy.

According to the statement, the approval followed a final review of legacy debts accumulated under the Presidential Power Sector Financial Reforms Programme over 10 years, spanning February 2015 to March 2025.

“Following verification, ₦3.3 trillion has been agreed as a full and final settlement, ensuring a fair and transparent resolution,” the statement partly read.

The government noted that implementation of the repayment plan has already commenced, with 15 power generation companies signing settlement agreements valued at ₦2.3 trillion.

It added that the Federal Government had so far raised ₦501 billion to fund the initiative, out of which ₦223 billion had already been disbursed, while further payments are ongoing.

Explaining the significance of the programme, Olu Arowolo-Verheijen, special adviser on Energy to the President, said the initiative goes beyond debt clearance.

“This programme is not just about settling legacy debts. It is about restoring confidence across the power sector, ensuring gas suppliers are paid, power plants can keep running, and the system begins to work more reliably,” she said.

She added that the plan formed part of the sector reforms, including improved metering and the introduction of service-based tariffs.

“It is part of a broader set of reforms already underway, including better metering and service-based tariffs that link what you pay to the quality of electricity you receive.

“The government is also prioritising power supply to businesses, industries, and small enterprises because reliable electricity is critical to creating jobs, supporting livelihoods, and growing the economy.

“The goal is simple: more reliable power for homes, stronger support for businesses, and a system that works better for all Nigerians,” she added.

The presidency stated that the settlement of the debts was expected to enhance liquidity across the power value chain, leading to more stable electricity generation and improved service delivery.

President Tinubu also commended stakeholders for their roles in resolving the long-standing issues and confirmed that the next phase of the programme, known as Series II, will commence within the current quarter.

Nigeria’s fragile power supply has been marked by frequent grid collapses, low generation levels, and persistent outages affecting homes and businesses.

A 2024 report by Africa Trade Barometer disclosed that Nigeria loses an estimated $26 billion yearly to power failures.

It said businesses spend about $22 billion annually on off-grid fuel to offset the impact of power shortages. This further pushes operational costs.

“Economic losses arising from Nigeria’s electricity shortages are estimated to be USD 26 billion annually, without accounting for spending on fuel for off-grid generators, which is estimated to be a further USD 22 billion,” the report by Standard Bank said.

“In Nigeria, surveyed businesses must contend with a national grid that frequently collapses as it fails to meet a daily peak demand which is nearly four times its generation capacity,” it added.

 


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Union Bank Looted: How Former Directors Gambled with Billions and Nearly Destroyed a National Bank

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The former directors and owners of Union Bank did not just fail, they engineered a financial disaster. They manipulated reports, hid massive losses, diverted foreign loans and treated depositors’ money like a private wallet.

 

Union Bank Looted: How Former Directors Gambled with Billions and Nearly Destroyed a National Bank

Union Bank

Investigators uncovered billions of dollars in misconduct. These directors buried over ₦250 billion in losses, piled a $300 million foreign loan onto the bank without protection and then forced Union Bank to carry the burden. They even used the bank’s own funds to buy its shares, an outrageous betrayal of trust.

It didn’t stop there. Over $100 million was pulled out improperly, leaving the bank exposed and struggling. Loans meant for customers were secretly diverted into shady transactions. False reports were sent to lenders. The system was deliberately deceived.

This was not incompetence. It was exploitation.

By 2025, their actions had created nearly ₦400 billion in losses and over ₦147 billion in unpaid charges. The bank was on the edge.

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) stepped in just in time. Without that intervention, Union Bank could have collapsed, dragging others down with it.

Now, the bank is stabilising. But let’s be clear: this recovery is happening in spite of those former directors, not because of them.

They didn’t build value. They destroyed it.

And Nigerians deserve to never forget who was responsible.


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