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Nigeria Expected to Expand 2.38% in Q4; Fed Meeting in Focus

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By Lukman Otunuga, Senior Research Analyst at FXTM,

A sense of confidence restored over the Nigerian economy this week. This comes after the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) governor stated that economic growth could expand 2.38% during the final quarter of 2019.

It has been a rough and rocky year for the global economy due to trade uncertainty and geopolitical risk factors weighing heavily on investor sentiment. However, Nigeria has displayed some resilience against external and domestic risks with economic growth expanding 2.28% during the third quarter of 2019 compared to the 1.94% seen in Q2. Although the CBN has refrained by cutting interest rates from 13.5%, other methods have been enforced to stimulate economic growth. The CBN is reportedly proposing to increase the country’s loan to deposit ratio for banks to 70% from 65%. Making sure money is in circulation, instead of being tied up in government bonds, is a sound way to keep the economy on the road to recovery. However, it will be interesting to see whether this will be enough to stimulate economic growth.

Markets tepid ahead of Fed interest rate decision

Asian markets were subdued on Wednesday morning as investors grew increasingly anxious over the lack of update on US-China trade talks.

Repeated mixed signals and messages ahead of the December 15 tariff deadline is fostering confusion across financial markets. This sentiment continues to be reflected in global equities as markets adopt a ‘wait and see’ approach until clarity and direction are offered on the trade front. In Europe, shares are expected to make a cautious start ahead of the U.S Federal Reserve’s final interest rate decision of 2019. Given how uncertainty remains a dominant theme this week, safe-haven assets like Gold and the Japanese Yen have the potential to appreciate as investors head for safety.

Steady Dollar ahead of Fed meeting

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at 1.75% in December.

However, much of the focus will be directed towards the policy statement, economic projections, dot plot and press conference for clues on future monetary policy. Speculation around the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates anytime soon have been quelled by November’s blockbuster US jobs report. Although markets are pricing in a 54% probability of a rate cut by September 2020, it will be interesting to see whether the dot plot mirrors market expectations. Appetite towards the Dollar will also be influenced by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s remarks on the US economy and monetary policy. Should the press conference and policy statement adopt a dovish tone, the Dollar Index may dip back towards 97.40.

Pound dips on UK poll projections

Sterling’s depreciation against the Dollar on Wednesday continues to highlight how the currency remains extremely sensitive to polls.

Appetite towards the Pound was dealt a blow heavy after a poll showed a narrowing lead for Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party. Given how the general election is around the corner, the British Pound is set to remain volatile and highly reactive to polls.

Focusing on the technical picture, the GBPUSD is struggling to defend 1.3100 on the daily charts. A solid breakdown below this point should encourage a decline towards 1.3000 in the short to medium term.

Commodity spotlight – Gold

Gold is grinding higher amid caution ahead of a looming tariff deadline on December 15th. The precious has gained roughly 0.25% since the start of the week thanks to investors adopting a guarded approach. The sense of uncertainty is likely to continue supporting appetite for safe-haven assets for the rest of this week.

Gold is seen swinging within a range in the near term ahead of the tariff deadline. Prices are seen testing $1470 amid the market caution, with further uncertainty injecting bulls with enough confidence to attack $1476.50 and $1480, respectively. Given how the precious metal remains highly sensitive to trade headlines, any good this week could result in a decline back below $1458.

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E-Financial

FIRS says MOU with DGFIP Won’t Compromise Nigeria Tax Data Sovereignty

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The Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) has clarified that the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) recently signed with France’s Direction Générale des Finances Publiques (DGFiP) is a strictly technical assistance and capacity-building framework.

The clarification comes after talks of concerns that the MOU  is a means for foreign interests to gain control over Nigeria’s sovereign tax data.

On Thursday, the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) signed an MoU with France’s Direction Générale des Finances Publiques (DGFiP).

“At no point does it grant France access to Nigerian tax data, digital infrastructure, or operational control of our systems. All Nigerian laws regarding data protection, sovereignty, and cybersecurity remain fully in force, and the MoU includes robust confidentiality and data protection provisions,” Umar Ahmed, director, Intergovernmental Affairs, Federal Inland Revenue Service, said in a recent release.

The DGFiP is one of the world’s most sophisticated tax administrations, with over 100 years of institutional experience, a workforce exceeding 90,000 professionals, and globally recognised expertise in digital tax systems, institutional governance, taxpayer services, and public finance management.

Ahmed said that the partnership is advisory, non-intrusive, and mutually beneficial, designed to strengthen FIRS’ institutional capacity as it transitions into the Nigerian Revenue Service (NRS).

“The collaboration provides Nigeria with a unique opportunity to learn from international best practices in workforce management, digital transformation, tax policy development, and regional cooperation, while ensuring that Nigeria retains full control over its tax administration and data,” he said.

Ahmed said that local technology providers are not being sidelined; FIRS continues to engage and collaborate with Nigerian innovators, including NIBSS, Interswitch, PayStack, and Flutterwave.

“The MoU is not intended to deliver technical services, but rather to provide capacity-building, advisory support, and knowledge sharing based on DGFiP’s extensive institutional experience. The collaboration focuses on institutional strengthening, workforce development, digital transformation guidance, taxpayer education, policy modernisation, and regional integration—all fully aligned with Nigeria’s sovereignty and national interests,” he said.

The director said that the service is far from compromising national control. This agreement represents a strategic initiative to modernise Nigeria’s tax administration, enhance institutional capacity, and strengthen the country’s long-term economic resilience.

“Nigeria remains fully in command of its tax systems, data, and policy direction. FIRS remains steadfast in its commitment to transparency, professionalism, and collaboration in the pursuit of national development,” Ahmed said.


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Reps Passes Bill for Single Six-Year Tenure for CBN Governor, Deputies

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House of Representatives yesterday passed second reading a bill seeking to introduce a single, non-renewable six-year tenure for the Governor and Deputy Governors of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), challenging the current CBN Act 2007 that allows an initial five-year term with reappointment option.

Reps Passes Bill for Single Six-Year Tenure for CBN Governor, Deputies

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The legislation, jointly sponsored by Jesse Okey Joe Onuakalusi (Oshodi/Isolo Federal Constituency) and Majority Leader Julius Ihonvbere, proposes sweeping reforms to modernise the apex bank’s governance, unify the exchange rate system, ban foreign currencies for domestic transactions except via authorised channels, and align operations with international best practices.

Key provisions include separating the roles of CBN Governor and Board Chairman to curb power concentration, capping Ways and Means advances at 10 per cent of the previous year’s actual revenue to check inflationary financing, mandating 90 days’ notice with impact assessment and National Assembly briefing for currency redesign, and enhancing the Monetary Policy Committee with independent external experts plus macro-prudential tools and stress testing.

Onuakalusi, opening the debate, described the changes as “structural and forward-looking reforms” to protect the economy, restore monetary policy confidence, and bar the CBN Governor and deputies from partisan politics, stressing that the current Act no longer suits today’s realities amid past controversies like Godwin Emefiele’s tenure and the disruptive naira redesign.

He said: “The Central Bank of Nigeria is too critical an institution to operate under a framework that no longer reflects Nigeria’s economic realities or international best practices.

“This bill is not targeted at any individual or administration. It is a structural reform for economic stability, transparency, accountability, and sustainable governance.”

Deputy Speaker Benjamin Kalu put the bill to a voice vote, with lawmakers unanimously endorsing its passage at second reading. A similar Senate bill for a single six-year tenure had passed second reading in February 2024.


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Sterling Bank, Pan-Atlantic University Partner to Certify Non-Oil Export Academy Graduates

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L-R: Kola Oluyemi, Group Head, Sterling Academy; Dr. Nneka Okekearu, Director, Enterprise Development Centre (EDC), Pan Atlantic University (PAU); Abubakar Suleiman, MD/CEO, Sterling Bank; Dr. Nnenna Ugwu, Head, Alumni Engagement and Support Services, EDC at PAU; and Akporee Idenedo, Divisional Head, Commercial Banking, Sterling Bank at the recent MoU signing to certify graduates of Sterling Bank’s Non-Oil Export Academy.
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Sterling Bank Limited has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Enterprise Development Centre (EDC) of Pan-Atlantic University (PAU) to certify graduates of its Non-Oil Export Academy.

Sterling Bank, Pan-Atlantic University Partner to Certify Non-Oil Export Academy Graduates

L-R: Kola Oluyemi, Group Head, Sterling Academy; Dr. Nneka Okekearu, Director, Enterprise Development Centre (EDC), Pan Atlantic University (PAU); Abubakar Suleiman, MD/CEO, Sterling Bank; Dr. Nnenna Ugwu, Head, Alumni Engagement and Support Services, EDC at PAU; and Akporee Idenedo, Divisional Head, Commercial Banking, Sterling Bank at the recent MoU signing to certify graduates of Sterling Bank’s Non-Oil Export Academy.

This strategic partnership underscores the Bank’s commitment to diversifying Nigeria’s economy by supporting non-oil export growth.

This landmark agreement follows the recent launch of the Sterling Bank Non-Oil Export Academy, designed to position Nigerian exporters for global competitiveness.

The launch was preceded by a series of nationwide training programs in Lagos, Ondo, and Kano states, culminating in a grand finale themed “Excel in Non-Oil Export.”

The initiative aims to equip exporters with practical tools to thrive in international markets, thereby reducing Nigeria’s reliance on oil revenues.

Speaking at the signing ceremony in Lagos, Sterling Bank’s Managing Director and CEO, Mr. Abubakar Suleiman, affirmed that the Bank is intentional about creating an ecosystem where non-oil exporters are well-informed and equipped to advance national interests.

“We are not just training people to understand how to export; we want to train them to be competitive exporters of non-oil products,” Suleiman said.

“Our goal is to build a community of knowledgeable, certified, and confident exporters who can collaborate to solve challenges beyond their immediate capacity. Our North Star is to reach a point where hundreds of people have completed this programme and are ready to compete on a global scale.”

Dr. Nneka Okekearu, Director of the Enterprise Development Centre (EDC), expressed enthusiasm for the collaboration. “Having spent the last twenty-three years deepening the competencies of entrepreneurs, we thoroughly understand what is needed and are excited to be part of this initiative,” she noted.

Dr. Okekearu emphasized that the export market has been neglected for too long. “With the right structure, standards, and mindset in place, entrepreneurs passing through this programme will help create not only a better Nigeria but more sustainable communities,” she added, noting that she looks forward to the case studies that will emerge from the programme’s participants.

Beyond sectoral outcomes, the initiative reinforces Sterling Bank’s commitment to support the development of human capital that positively shapes and impacts the wider economy. The Academy will run four cohorts within the year, commencing in 2026.

With this partnership, Sterling Bank and the Enterprise Development Centre are laying the foundation for a new generation of globally competitive Nigerian exporters, professionals equipped not only with knowledge, but with the certification, confidence, and networks needed to scale.

As both institutions align their expertise to strengthen non-oil export capacity, this collaboration signals a bold step toward a more resilient, inclusive, and diversified economy.

The Non-Oil Export Academy therefore serves as a catalyst for national transformation, empowering businesses and communities to unlock Nigeria’s full potential on the world stage.


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