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Nigeria Monetary Policy Makers in Tight Spot as Stagflation Takes Hold

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By Lukman Otunuga, Senior Research Analyst at FXTM
Nigerian monetary policymakers face three main pressures this quarter: the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and a pressing need for economic stimulus in addition to stagflation and a weakened Naira.

Monetary policymakers are in a tough spot after COVID-19 claimed the economy as a victim of lockdowns and reduced activity. The central bank has to take on a therapeutic role to nurse the country back to health. Are the available remedies enough to save the patient or have decades of over-reliance on the cover-all solution of strong oil revenues blunted their effectiveness?

CBN unlikely to cut rates

In its January decision, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) left its key interest rate unchanged at 11.5 percent, citing the pursuit of price stability. While other central banks adopted looser monetary policy to defend their economies against COVID-19, the CBN simply doesn’t have enough breathing room because it is dealing with stagflation marked by price inflation in the essential needs sector and a loss of productivity at the same time.

The CBN shows decisiveness and determination to reverse the stagflation and loss of output trends, according to its January meeting statement. Even amid the headwinds, it’s encouraging that the CBN realises the problem and is taking measures to handle it.

Nigeria faces severe stagflation 

The economic consequences of COVID-19 are the environment of stagflation with rising inflation and a recessionary economy, said the CBN. Stagflation is characterised by price rises which occur when there is an increase in inflation and at the same time an increase in unemployment and lower economic output. Meanwhile, import restrictions announced by the central bank to help local producers have added to fuel inflation which hit a three-year high in December.

Traditional monetary policy is hard-pressed to find a solution to both stagflation and a depressed economy at the same time. Lowering interest rates is one option but in Nigeria’s case might lead to an increase in inflation which is well above the target rate of six to nine percent and make things worse.

The remedy for stagflation depends on treating the root causes. These are the extensive pandemic lockdowns, chronically high inflation, and uncertainties in the oil markets feeding into reduced output and fiscal risks. While most of the causes are likely to pass once the pandemic is under control, none of them appears to have an early ending at the time of writing. Vaccination programmes take time to be effective and meanwhile demand for oil remains at relatively low levels because of travel restrictions.

Economic recession

Nigeria struggles with a recession with the threat of higher unemployment and poverty rates exacerbated by the public health threat from COVID-19. The recession impacts the buying power of the Naira and comes at a bad time after the central bank’s efforts to manage the currency and stoke economic growth in recent years rather than just focusing on keeping inflation in its target band of six to nine percent.

Monetary authorities had to devalue the Naira twice last year after a shortage of dollars pushed up import prices and increased the gap between the official and black-market exchange rates.

Unconventional tools of growth

In January, the CBN disbursed N20 trillion to cushion the pandemic effects and support the signs of improvement which came thanks to easing lockdown restrictions and more promising Oil prices. The CBN said that N192.64 billion was disbursed to households and small businesses from the COVID-19 Targeted Credit Facility.

The deployment of funds directly to their targets is certainly a significant support for the economy but the second wave of infections and ongoing uncertainty about the vaccine rollout threatens to sabotage any meaningful recovery, at least in the short term.

Too early to tighten?

The coronavirus is the dovish factor in the CBN’s price stability mandate and the central bank is likely to adopt a wait-and-see approach for the foreseeable future. Tightening monetary policy this year may be too soon and make Nigeria an outlier among major economies expected to ease or hold rates at record lows to breathe new life into their economies.

Other than direct funding, the CBN may end up using additional unconventional tools to revive growth including tweaking the loan to deposit ratio, the liquidity ratio, and cash reserve ratio. The questions are whether these will be enough to save the patient from more financial pain and what will be the long-term effects on Nigeria’s economic health.


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FG Partners World Bank, AfDB on Climate Action

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The Federal Ministry of Livestock Development has announced its commitment to collaborate with the World Bank Group and the African Development Bank (AfDB) to address climate change challenges affecting Nigeria’s livestock sector.

Permanent Secretary of the ministry, Dr. Chinyere-Ijeoma Akujobi, made this known during a meeting with a delegation from the two banks on Wednesday in Abuja.

She said the partnership aims to unlock opportunities for sustainable growth and resilience in the industry and that the collaboration is strategic in realising the ministry’s strategic goals.

“The proposed collaboration aligns with our mandate to mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change on livestock production, safeguard livelihoods, and promote environmentally responsible practices throughout the value chain,” the permanent secretary said.

Represented by the Director of Planning, Research and Statistics in the ministry Mr. Ohaeri Ezenwa, Dr. Akujobi highlighted the livestock sector’s significance to Nigeria’s economy.

She pointed out that “Despite its importance, the sector is highly vulnerable to climate variability and change,” outlining its implications for animal health, productivity, and greenhouse gas emissions.

While emphasising the urgency of robust policies and reliable data to address the impacts of climate change, the Director (Technical) and Team Lead of the Technical Working Group on Climate Change, Dr. Alike Peter, explained that “These realities underscore the need for evidence-based policies and coordinated national action to drive climate-smart livestock development.”

Dr. Peter said that the Technical Working Group supports the National Livestock Growth Acceleration Strategy (NLGAS), which aims to double the sector’s contribution to GDP from approximately $32 billion to $74 billion in a decade.

He added, “Both growth pathways have direct implications for greenhouse gas emissions, making climate considerations crucial in livestock development planning.”

The ministry is also collaborating with the World Bank to establish a national methane baseline and develop evidence-based mitigation measures.

Dr. Peter said, “Ongoing collaborations aim to strengthen Nigeria’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and access carbon markets.”

Dr. Harrison Charo Karisa, a representative from the World Bank Group, highlighted opportunities in climate-smart aquaculture, the blue economy, and carbon markets.

“Seaweed can serve as a nutritious livestock feed supplement rich in essential vitamins and minerals,” he noted.

Dr. Youssouf Kabore, Chief Livestock Officer at AfDB, commended the ministry’s proactive approach and assured the bank’s support in implementing effective interventions in the livestock sector.

 


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Kaspersky Highlights Cyber Threats at a Major Event Such as the Winter Olympics Games

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The 2026 Winter Olympics will begin on February 6 in Italy, attracting the attention of fans both online and offline. Hundreds of athletes will participate, and the host cities are expected to welcome large crowds. Kaspersky experts have listed the types of threats that may emerge in the context of a major international event, regardless of its location.

The Event Audience as a Target

The Olympics attract thousands of people travelling to the host country. Offline spectators may face unpleasant surprises such as fake tickets, which scammers distribute. This could result in stolen funds from bank accounts or even compromised cryptocurrency wallet credentials instead of access to their favourite events. Meanwhile, online fans are at risk from fake live streams and fraudulent websites selling merchandise of their favourite athletes.

Travellers may also encounter fraudulent services posing as cell phone plans that collect and steal personal and financial information. That is why it’s convenient to choose Kaspersky eSIM Store to always stay connected, avoiding potential fraudulent services and physical SIM card hassles.

Attacks on athletes

Cybercriminals may exploit publicly available information and the popularity of the participating athletes. Other scenarios might be targeted phishing attacks and deepfake-based operations aimed at data theft or blackmail.

These should be of particular concern, as well as the potential hijacking of social media accounts. In addition, athletes may face risks of ‘doxxing’, — the public exposure of private information — and other forms of tech-enabled abuse, which can impact personal safety.

Threat actors may also take advantage of vulnerabilities in online security, particularly through data leaks that affect users’ personal information. The Data Leak Checker feature in Kaspersky Premium enables users to identify potential compromises in their accounts, alerting them to any risks of exposure.

Urban infrastructure attacks

Both profit-driven and other types of threat actors may target critical city systems, including transportation, utilities, communication networks, and vulnerable public Wi‑Fi, with the aim of disrupting services or compromising operational stability.

According to a 2024 study by Kaspersky, conducted ahead of the Summer Olympic and Paralympic Games in Paris, nearly 25 percent of the approximately 25,000 free Wi-Fi hotspots analysed in the city were found to have weak or no encryption, putting users’ personal and banking data at risk of theft.

These attacks can be carried out using malware, network intrusions, or manipulation of connected systems, potentially affecting city operations and services relied upon by residents and visitors. Using security solutions such as Kaspersky Premium along with a VPN will help to protect data by encrypting Internet connection and securing online activity.

Ransomware

Ransomware actors, seeking maximum profit, may view mass events and the related entities such as vendors or other organisations in the supply chain as high-value targets. To maximise financial gain from the high demand to attend the event in person, such attacks can target hotel networks in the host city, as well as stadiums, official ticket sales platforms and other event resources.

APT attacks

Advanced Persistent Threat (APT) actors also consider large international events as strategically significant targets due to their global visibility, high concentration of critical IT infrastructure contractors and complex supply chains.

A prime example of such an attack was the Olympic Destroyer, used against the IT infrastructure at the 2018 PyeongChang Olympics. In this attack, the malware spread within the organisers’ network using compromised credentials and was aimed at sabotage and disrupting the operation of the event.

Hacktivism attacks

Hacktivist actors may launch campaigns targeting event-related organisations to achieve their strategic goals and public attention. These offensive operations could take the form of data theft and leaks, misinformation, or the disruption of the systems involved in the event, such as broadcast infrastructure or ticketing platforms, potentially affecting both the spectators and organisations.

“Events on the scale of the Olympic Games typically draw significant attention from cybercriminals, and potential threats can take many forms, affecting spectators, cities’ infrastructure and the athletes themselves, as well as millions of people accessing with digital services before, during and after the event.

The international dimension and big audience make such events especially attractive targets for sophisticated actors, who pose serious threats that everyone involved should be prepared for,” said Igor Kuznetsov, Director of Global Research & Analysis Team at Kaspersky.


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Firm Gives Advice on How to Stay Secure as AI, robots and VR are Redefining Family Life

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Over the past 10 years, families have experienced shifts in structure and a perceived increase in fragmented interactions at home, largely driven by the pervasive use of technology and changing social norms. What does the next decade hold in store?

According to a global survey* by Kaspersky’s market research center, an overwhelming 81% of people believe digitalisation will fundamentally alter families’ joint pastimes within the next decade. This shift points to a future where bonding is mediated by advanced technology, creating new rituals and challenges in equal measure.

Screen time is family time, but it has its risks

Nearly half (48%) of all respondents envision AI-powered bedtime stories becoming a norm, a figure that rises to 53% among 18–34-year-olds. Today, apps and smart devices offer AI-narrated tales with customisable characters and plot twists.

For the busy parent, it presents a novel aid, for the child, an endlessly patient, interactive storyteller.

Meanwhile, with 31% of families anticipating children opting for digital pets over real ones, it seems that ‘man’s best friend’ just got its first update.

It should be noted, however, that while AI has the potential to enrich a child’s life, it necessitates vigilance. When children interact with AI, for stories or learning, parents must be proactive.

Select services with strong privacy policies that do not unnecessarily store or misuse a child’s data or voice interactions and further enhance control with digital parenting assistants like Kaspersky Safe Kids to restrict content and balance screen time.

Parents would be well placed to treat AI interactions as a new digital playground where they can use parental controls to limit session duration, choose vetted, age-appropriate AI story platforms, and most importantly, maintain an open dialogue about what these stories are and how they are created. Explain to children that an AI is a tool, not a friend, and encourage them to report any strange or uncomfortable interactions, just as they would in the physical world.

The key is to ensure AI complements human interaction, not replaces the comfort of a parent’s voice.

Blowing out the digital candles

Another 43% predict family celebrations migrating to video call formats as a standard, not an exception, a trend accelerated by recent global events but now seen as a permanent fixture for dispersed families.

Meanwhile a daring 26% can imagine taking family vacations entirely in virtual reality. This sounds like the stuff of science fiction, but then 10 years ago, the type of generative AI being used today was not widely anticipated.

This fragmented outlook highlights that the future of family digital activity will not arrive as a uniform wave, but as a series of adoptions shaped by cultural openness and digital infrastructure. For security leaders like Kaspersky, this evolving landscape presents new vectors for risk within the most intimate of spaces, the smart home.

Preparing the digital home for tomorrow’s family

43% of all respondents foresee home robots as family members. Moving beyond voice-activated personal assistants or autonomous vacuum cleaners, these would be embodied AI companions capable of tutoring, playing games, or providing companionship.

In the eyes of hackers, however, every new device, from a VR headset to a robot nanny, is a potential entry point. To keep things secure, change default passwords immediately, ensure all device firmware is regularly updated, and segment your home network.

Use Kaspersky Premium with a Smart Home Monitor which scans users’ home Wi-Fi network 24/7, and shows a list of devices connected to it, including such details as device type, OS and IP address, and alerts when a new or unknown device connects.

As robots, AI, and VR devices become part of the family circle, security must be foundational, not an afterthought.

“The accelerating pace of technology is not fragmenting the family but redefining its shared spaces. The future, as seen by the global majority, is one where digital and physical experiences blend to create new forms of togetherness, from a grandparent joining a birthday party via hologram to a child caring for a digital pet with a sibling across the globe.

“The challenge and opportunity lie in building secure digital environments with intention, ensuring they are safe, respectful, and ultimately, tools that bring us closer,” comments Seifallah Jedidi, Head of Consumer Channel for META at Kaspersky.


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