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Nigeria on Bumpy Road to Recovery; Foreign Exchange Reserves in Focus

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By Lukman Otunuga, Senior Research Analyst at FXTM,

The Nigerian economy still remains on a rocky road to recovery in the face of depressed oil prices, US-China trade uncertainty and fears over decelerating global growth.

Although the nation’s GDP expanded 1.94% during the second quarter of 2019, it is unlikely to meet the government’s 3% growth targets this year. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected Nigeria’s growth to expand 2.3% this year and 2.5% in 2020. Despite the ongoing push for economic diversification, 90% of foreign exchange earnings and 70% of government revenues are still attained from oil sales.

While the Central Bank of Nigeria can be commended on its effort to promote Naira stability, this has come at the expense of falling reserves which decreased to $42.1 billion in September. Much attention will be directed towards the pending foreign exchange reserves data for October scheduled for release on Wednesday. Further signs of reserves declining amid weak oil prices and intervention by the CBN is likely to weigh on the Naira.

Market mood brightens on trade deal optimism

The mood across financial markets continues to brighten after President Donald Trump said that Washington “was ahead of schedule” on a trade deal with China.

This encouraging news has certainly injected global equity bulls with a renewed sense of confidence as optimism increases that the two largest economies in the world will sign “phase one ” of the trade agreement soon. Shares across Asia are pushing higher on Tuesday amid the risk-on sentiment, after the S&P 500 hit an all time record high overnight on the back of trade hopes and prospects of lower interest rates by the Fed. The positive vibe from Asian markets should also support European stocks and potentially Wall Street later this afternoon.

Fourth time lucky? Johnson seeks snap election again

There was little to cheer about on Monday in Brexit news despite the European Union granting Britain a flexible three-month extension to the Brexit process until 31 January 2020.

Although this has prevented the UK from leaving the European Union on October 31 without a deal, it is simply kicking the can down the road. This sentiment is clearly being reflected in the British Pound which offered a fairly muted reaction to the third Brexit extension. With British lawmakers rejecting Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s plan for an early election in December, where do we go from here? While Johnson is expected to try again for an early election on Tuesday, history could repeat itself for the fourth time in two months. Until investors are offered proper direction and clarity on Brexit, Sterling’s rise may be capped below 1.30.

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Dollar waits for FOMC meeting

The Dollar held steady against a basket of major currencies on Tuesday ahead of the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. With markets widely expecting the Fed to dish out another insurance rate cut in face of trade uncertainty and global growth concerns, much attention will be directed towards Jerome Powell’s press conference. Should Powell sound less dovish than expected, investors are likely to revaluate whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December.

Gold in the spotlight

Gold has stumbled into the trading week under pressure thanks to the improving market mood and risk-on sentiment. Given how prices are trading below the $1500 level, further downside could be on the cards in the short term.

However, investor expectations over the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in October coupled with Brexit uncertainty should stimulate appetite towards the precious metal in the medium term. The longer-term outlook will remain influenced by US-China trade developments and global growth concerns. Although most remain cautiously optimistic over the two largest economies in the world signing a “phase one” trade deal, there is still room for disappointment as talks have fallen apart in the past. Focusing on the technical picture, Gold is tracking sideways on the daily charts but  the breakdown below $1500 should open a path towards $1485.

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E-Financial

Shareholders Approve $1.5bn Capital Raising for Access Holdings

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The shareholders of Access Holdings Plc have unanimously approved the company’s proposed capital raising of $1.5 billion through a bond or share sale and a further N365 billion via a Rights Issue to fund its ambitious growth plans.

The shareholders also ratified the appointments of Aigboje Aig-Imoukhuede, Olusegun Ogbonnewo, and Ojinika Olaghere as Non-Executive Directors.

The appointment of Aig-Imoukhuede as the Chairman of Access Holdings was praised by the shareholders, who pointed to his rich history of success with the institution, having transformed it into Nigeria’s biggest lender by market value alongside late Herbert Wigwe.

The shareholders stated that Aigboje’s leadership was instrumental in driving the institution’s growth during the 2004 recapitalisation of the banking industry led by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) under the leadership of its former Governor, Prof. Charles Soludo.

“We are thrilled with Aigboje Aig-Imoukhuede’s return to the role of Chairman. His proven track record, experience, and strategic insights position him as the ideal leader to steer Access Holdings towards meeting its lofty targets.

During his tenure as CEO, particularly during the recapitalisation directive by the CBN, he steered Access Bank to raise an impressive $2 billion in capital, and this demonstrates his capacity to, once again, lead Access Holdings towards successfully achieving the objectives of our planned capital raise and Rights Issue targets,” said Chief Sunny Nwosu, Chairman Emeritus of the Independent Shareholders Association of Nigeria (ISAN).

In line with the Group’s strong financial performance, the payment of a final dividend of N1.80 kobo per every N0.50 kobo ordinary share for the 2023 financial year was approved, marking a 28 per cent improvement from the corresponding period in 2022.

 


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E-Financial

Confusion as CBN Deletes, Reinstates Tweet Calling Crypto-Related Directive Fake

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has been forced to deny a report saying it issued a directive requiring all banks and financial institutions to identify individuals or entities engaging in transactions with cryptocurrency exchanges and to ensure that such accounts are put on Post No Debit (PND) instruction for six months.

Confusion as CBN Deletes, Reinstates Tweet Calling Crypto-Related Directive Fake

A “Post No Debit” instruction is a directive issued by a bank or financial institution to restrict certain transactions on a customer’s account.

When a PND instruction is in place, the account holder is prohibited from making debit transactions, meaning they cannot withdraw funds or make payments using the affected account.

Confusion occurred when the central bank denied the story on X but then deleted the denial.

The alleged circular also stated that regulated financial institutions engaged in crypto or facilitating payments for crypto exchanges are prohibited.

However, this contradicts an earlier ban lifted in December 2023, allowing banks to facilitate transactions for crypto exchanges.

The central bank lifted the ban nearly two years after enforcing a comprehensive ban on banks engaging with digital currencies.

According to a statement by the CBN at the time, it recognized that the increasing global demand and adoption of crypto make it unjustifiable to maintain the stringent restrictions imposed on financial institutions in 2021.

However, due to the swift devaluation of the naira and the subsequent inflation rate of 29.9%, the government shifted its attention to platforms offering cryptocurrency services.

It disabled websites associated with crypto trading that had gained notoriety for setting informal valuations for the naira.

Binance encountered significant scrutiny when the CBN raised concerns regarding “suspicious financial transactions” occurring through Binance Nigeria in 2023.

Olayemi Cardoso, governor, CBN, said $26 billion had passed through Nigeria via Binance in 2023 from unidentified sources and users.

Binance is facing further challenges in Nigeria, with its executive Tigran Gambaryan, who is based in the United States, being detained in the country.

He’s facing five charges linked to money laundering following a meeting with Nigerian officials regarding Binance’s regulatory compliance.

Nadeem Anjarwalla, one of the executives who met with Nigerian officials about Binance’s regulatory issues, subsequently escaped custody and was tracked down to Kenya, where he faces extradition.

 


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NDIC Inaugurates Anti-Corruption and Transparency Unit

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Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC) has inaugurated an Anti-Corruption and Transparency Unit (ACTU) at its headquarters in Abuja.

NDIC Inaugurates Anti-Corruption and Transparency Unit

Speaking at the inauguration which was conducted by officials of the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPC); Mr. Bello Hassan, managing director/chief executive, NDIC, said the corporation has a culture of zero tolerance for corruption, which is further strengthened by its core values of teamwork, respect and fairness, integrity, professionalism, and passion.

Represented by Mr. Mustapha M. Ibrahim, executive director, Operations, Hassan, said, the NDIC ACTU has strengthened the Corporation’s operational system through the implementation of various compliance measures to ensure ethics, integrity, transparency and accountability in the workplace.

He explained that the specific measures include robust Internal Controls, regular Risk Assessments, and strict adherence to regulatory guidelines, and comprehensive training programs for employees.

Hassan described the inauguration as a significant step in the Corporation’s ongoing commitment in the fight against corruption and enhances transparency.

He emphasised that NDIC Management remains committed to supporting ACTU activities, recognizing the unit’s critical role in ensuring the Corporation’s operations are conducted with integrity, free from corruption, and fostering public trust.

Dr. Musa Adamu Aliyu, chairman, ICPC, who was represented by Mr. Olusegun Adigun, acting director System Study and Review, ICPC, praised NDIC management for their dedication and active support in establishing and advancing the activities of the ACTU to address corruption issues and foster ethical practices.

He applauded the efficiency and diligence of the NDIC ACTU in fulfilling its mandate, resulting in the Corporation retaining the first position for two consecutive years on the annual ICPC Ethics and Integrity Compliance Scorecard.

He urged the new ACTU members to see their nomination as an opportunity to build on the good legacies of the previous members and to complement Management’s efforts in promoting the core values of the Corporation through their assigned duties.

 

 


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