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Oil: Will a sturdier floor make for a higher bounce?

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By Han Tan, Market Analyst at FXTM,

In the third quarter, WTI crude is set to form a solid base to launch another attempt at the $65/bbl mark, providing the global demand outlook doesn’t deteriorate any further.

The downside for Oil appears to have been mitigated around the mid-$50/bbl range by the recent announcement of revived US-China trade talks, staving off the risk of an immediate deterioration in ties between the world’s two largest economies. Although the existing tariffs remain in place, the prospects of further levies being imposed has dwindled, at least for the time being. That ensures that the growth of global demand, while slowing, isn’t completely snuffed out.

 

Supply-side risks to remain manageable in Q3

On the supply side, the OPEC+ decision to maintain supply cuts at current levels until March 2020 should also set a stronger platform for Oil’s Q3 performance. Concerns about excess supplies flooding the market have been assuaged by a reported 163 percent compliance rate by OPEC+ members in May. With a goal in place to remove some 1.2 million barrels from global supplies in 2019, the tightened-for-longer Oil taps should ensure supply-side risks are managed.

 

Unexpected flare-up in geopolitical tensions could trigger fear-induced Oil spike

Simmering geopolitical tensions have also contributed to Oil’s rise as the current quarter begins. US sanctions on major producers have affected not just the physical delivery of crude, but also market sentiment. Oil market participants remain focused on US President Donald Trump’s Twitter activities, given his fervor for shaking up the global order while pre-empting his foreign policy moves with unexpected tweets. With market sentiment still fragile, any whiff of an escalation in geopolitical tensions could trigger a fear-induced spike in Oil prices.

 

Oil markets to remain cautiously optimistic in Q3

Still, investors might be remiss in believing that things are only looking up in the second half of the year. Developments surrounding US-China trade talks remain fluid, and recent history has shown that events can turn on a dime. Should negotiations between the world’s two largest economies hit yet another wall, the floor could give way beneath Oil. Also keep in mind that the existing tariffs already imposed by the US and China remain in place and have already dragged global growth lower. Additionally, should President Trump open up another front in US-led trade tensions, that will further darken the demand outlook for Oil.

 

US shale output could throw spanner into the works

Then there’s the surge in US shale output, which has been an unrelenting tide that threatens to drown attempts by OPEC+ to rebalance the markets. US supply has been on a record-chasing spree, having notched a new high for monthly output in April when it exceeded 12 million bpd, according to the US Energy Information Administration. Although the number of active rigs has dwindled as producers stateside appear to be shifting priorities towards profitability rather than output growth, their actions may not be enough to stop total US output from hitting 14 million bpd in 2020.

 

WTI crude expected to nudge higher in Q3

Such supply and demand risks could dampen the enthusiasm within the Oil markets for higher highs. Instead of leaping into the air, traders may just take measured moves in nudging prices higher. The key consideration for Oil in Q3 is how much resistance prices will face on the way up.

 

At the time of writing, WTI crude is trading below its 50- and 200-day moving averages. A break above those levels could be met with stiffer resistance at $61.92/bbl, while Oil’s immediate support line can be drawn at $52.28/bbl

 


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Ugo Onwuaso is an ICT enthusiast. He believes technology should be used for general good. He holds a Master of Public Administration (MPA) degree from the Lagos state University.

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NCC Arrests Man for Hacking into DSTV System

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Nigeria Copyright Commission (NCC), has arrested one Mr Aliu Olalekan, for allegedly hacking into DSTV system and watching the channels free without subscription.

NCC Arrests Man for Hacking into DSTV System

Mr Matthew Ojo, NCC Director in the Lagos Directorate Office said this while speaking with newsmen in Lagos, on Tuesday.

He said that the suspect used to watch DSTV channels free without subscription on his Android phone via an app which he downloaded on google play store.

“This suspect distributed the know-how to his telegram followers and on his blog with the aim of gaining more followers and viewership on his blog and makes more money through google ad-sense.

“The operation was based on surveillance which had earlier been carried out by the Multi-choice team and verified by a copyright inspector, ” he said.

He added that the arrest was made in collaboration with a team of copyright inspectors led by the Head of Enforcement Department, Mr Charles Amudipe.

Others included; a team from Multichoice Nigeria led by Mr Umar Ibrahim and policemen from Lagos Command Headquarters, Ikeja.

Ojo said that the joint team conducted an anti-piracy operation at the premises of the culprit in Amukoko, Lagos.

According to him, the suspect was contacted on phone by a member of the operation team on the disguise of patronising him. “The suspect came out to meet the caller and in the process of discussion, he was apprehended.

“The suspect took the team to his resident. The squad paraded his one-room apartment and recovered his laptop and phones used in perpetrating the ungodly act. “He was arrested and brought to the copyright commission office for further investigation, ” he said.

Ojo said that, on getting to the commission’s office, the statement of the suspect was taken and the inventory of items seized from him taken. He said that investigation on the matter was still ongoing and if found guilty the suspect will be charged to court.

 


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NCC, Digital Encode Support NITRA Innovative Tech Forum On Post-COVID-19 Strategies

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The Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), Nigeria’s telecommunications regulator and Digital Encode, Cybersecurity and Compliance advisory company, have indicated interest to partner with the Nigeria Information Technology Reporters Association (NITRA), the national umbrella body of ICT reporters, as it organizes a forum that will x-ray the industry’s future plans for ICT growth post pandemic era.

 

The event, slated to hold on October 15, 2020, will seek to discuss the needs for a fortified ICT sector after the COVID-19 era, and the level of preparedness of ICT stakeholders to embrace the challenge of being pivotal to the stability and growth of all other sectors.

 

A statement from NITRA National Secretariat in Lagos indicates that due to the pandemic and need to observe the COVID-19 protocol on social distancing, the event will be held via a Webinar.

 

This year’s theme, “Multi-stakeholder Approach To National Recovery Post-Pandemic”, is in line with the annual event’s generic theme, ‘NITRA Innovative Tech Forum’, a contribution by NITRA to the development of Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) innovations and policies in Nigeria.

 

Prof. Umar Danbatta, executive vice chairman, NCC is expected to deliver the keynote speech at the event and will throw more light on Federal Government’s plans, programmes and policies on post-pandemic strategies using ICT.

 

Dr. Adewale Obadare and Dr. Seyi Akindeinde, founders of Digital Encode, while accepting to support the event expressed their readiness to offer their expertise in Cybersecurity for organisations to prepare against cyber- attacks with the new normal.

 

They will also highlight areas that are high risks that need fortification in terms of cybersecurity.

 

Speaking on the event, Mr. Chike Onwuegbuchi, national chairman, NITRA, noted that as the COVID-19 pandemic continues to leave its negative trails across the globe, economic reboot for countries will not only depend on how well they readapt to the new normal, but also more on their recovery plans.

 

According to him: “While the federal government has consistently expressed its willingness to set all policies in place to engender growth, and accelerated implementation of these policies, private sector firms have also shown great hunger for the task ahead in post-COVID-19 era.

 

However, the question that needs to be answered is whether all stakeholders are ready for the required task ahead.”

 

The event will also offer participating companies opportunities to publicize some of their individual efforts at contributing to reacting a soft landing or lifeline for SMEs and other ancillary companies as the pandemic threatens their survival.

 

Digital Encode is a multi-award winning and leading consulting and integration firm that specializes in the design, management, and security of business-critical networks, telecommunications environments and other Information Technology (IT) infrastructures.

 


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NCC Threatens Illegal Users of GSM Boosters with Arrest, Prosecution

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Nigerian Communication Commission (NCC) has warned telecom consumers to desist from using illegal GSM boosters.

NCC Threatens Illegal Users of GSM Boosters with Arrest, Prosecution

The commission also said that anyone caught using a GSM booster without obtaining approval of a duly licensed network operator will face arrest and prosecution.

GSM boosters are devices that transmit and receive telecommunications signals and can therefore interfere with other radio frequency equipment.

Ikechukwu Adinde, director, public affairs, NCC, said in a notice published on NCC website, that only licensed network operators are allowed to use GSM boosters.

The booster, also known as amplifier or repeater is made up of three main elements – exterior antenna, amplifier, and interior antenna.

They form a wireless system to boost cellular reception

“Members of the public should note that, willful interference with any wireless telegraphy is an offence under Section 16 of the Telegraphy Act, 2004,”it said

The agency said it will not condone any flagrant breach of this law.

It has also enforced measures to prosecute offenders.

Accordingly, monitoring mechanisms have been put in place and anyone caught using a GSM booster without obtaining approval of a duly licensed network operator will face arrest and prosecution.

“Any member of the public with useful information regarding the illegal use of GSM Boosters should contact the Commission on 09-4617000/7351 or send an email to [email protected],” the notice said.

“Individuals desirous of using GSM Boosters should note that they can only do so in conjunction with licensed network operators,” it added.

 

 


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