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Oil: Will a sturdier floor make for a higher bounce?

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By Han Tan, Market Analyst at FXTM,

In the third quarter, WTI crude is set to form a solid base to launch another attempt at the $65/bbl mark, providing the global demand outlook doesn’t deteriorate any further.

The downside for Oil appears to have been mitigated around the mid-$50/bbl range by the recent announcement of revived US-China trade talks, staving off the risk of an immediate deterioration in ties between the world’s two largest economies. Although the existing tariffs remain in place, the prospects of further levies being imposed has dwindled, at least for the time being. That ensures that the growth of global demand, while slowing, isn’t completely snuffed out.

 

Supply-side risks to remain manageable in Q3

On the supply side, the OPEC+ decision to maintain supply cuts at current levels until March 2020 should also set a stronger platform for Oil’s Q3 performance. Concerns about excess supplies flooding the market have been assuaged by a reported 163 percent compliance rate by OPEC+ members in May. With a goal in place to remove some 1.2 million barrels from global supplies in 2019, the tightened-for-longer Oil taps should ensure supply-side risks are managed.

 

Unexpected flare-up in geopolitical tensions could trigger fear-induced Oil spike

Simmering geopolitical tensions have also contributed to Oil’s rise as the current quarter begins. US sanctions on major producers have affected not just the physical delivery of crude, but also market sentiment. Oil market participants remain focused on US President Donald Trump’s Twitter activities, given his fervor for shaking up the global order while pre-empting his foreign policy moves with unexpected tweets. With market sentiment still fragile, any whiff of an escalation in geopolitical tensions could trigger a fear-induced spike in Oil prices.

 

Oil markets to remain cautiously optimistic in Q3

Still, investors might be remiss in believing that things are only looking up in the second half of the year. Developments surrounding US-China trade talks remain fluid, and recent history has shown that events can turn on a dime. Should negotiations between the world’s two largest economies hit yet another wall, the floor could give way beneath Oil. Also keep in mind that the existing tariffs already imposed by the US and China remain in place and have already dragged global growth lower. Additionally, should President Trump open up another front in US-led trade tensions, that will further darken the demand outlook for Oil.

 

US shale output could throw spanner into the works

Then there’s the surge in US shale output, which has been an unrelenting tide that threatens to drown attempts by OPEC+ to rebalance the markets. US supply has been on a record-chasing spree, having notched a new high for monthly output in April when it exceeded 12 million bpd, according to the US Energy Information Administration. Although the number of active rigs has dwindled as producers stateside appear to be shifting priorities towards profitability rather than output growth, their actions may not be enough to stop total US output from hitting 14 million bpd in 2020.

 

WTI crude expected to nudge higher in Q3

Such supply and demand risks could dampen the enthusiasm within the Oil markets for higher highs. Instead of leaping into the air, traders may just take measured moves in nudging prices higher. The key consideration for Oil in Q3 is how much resistance prices will face on the way up.

 

At the time of writing, WTI crude is trading below its 50- and 200-day moving averages. A break above those levels could be met with stiffer resistance at $61.92/bbl, while Oil’s immediate support line can be drawn at $52.28/bbl

 


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IMF Warns Nigeria of Risks in $5Bn Swap Deal with ‌First Abu Dhabi Bank

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The IMF on Tuesday warned of risks surrounding Nigeria’s plan to borrow up to $5 billion through a derivatives agreement with ‌First Abu Dhabi Bank, saying such transactions are often opaque and complex.

IMF Warns Nigeria of Risks in $5Bn Swap Deal with ‌First Abu Dhabi Bank

Recall that the Senate in April gave its approval to the agreement, joining other Africa borrowers like Senegal and Angola who have tapped similar arrangements over the past year.

“Our view is that the transaction in these types of structures carry risks. Usually they are opaque so the terms are not always very transparent when we reviewed these instruments ​across countries,” Christian Ebeke, IMF resident representative in Nigeria, told reporters.

Ebeke said Nigeria could instead issue eurobonds to finance its deficits or other means to raise funding, including on concessional terms.

Nigeria intends to use proceeds from the total return swap, or TRS, to refinance expensive debt and pay for infrastructure.

In its latest Article IV review, the Fund praised Nigeria’s sweeping reforms, saying they had strengthened economic stability and investor confidence, but warned that the benefits had ‌yet to reach millions of citizens and could be undermined by global shocks, including the Middle East conflict.

The reforms since 2023 under President Bola Tinubu – including fuel subsidy removal, tighter monetary policy and exchange rate liberalisation – had rebuilt buffers and improved macroeconomic management, the IMF said.

However, it cautioned that the reforms were also contributing to social strain, with poverty levels at 63% and millions facing food insecurity, underscoring a widening gap between macro gains and household realities.

The IMF said improved policy credibility and forex reforms had helped Nigeria regain access to international capital markets and attract portfolio inflows, while reducing risk premiums. The central bank says gross reserves are at $50 billion, the highest in 17 years.

But reliance on volatile foreign portfolio investment poses rollover risks, the IMF said, urging a shift towards more stable, long-term capital such as foreign direct investment.


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SSDC Warns Businesses against Cyber, Election-Related Risks

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Security Skills Development Company (SSDC) has released its 2026 Security Outlook, highlighting four major security challenges expected to shape Nigeria’s business and operating environment as the country moves closer to the 2027 general election.

SSDC Warns Businesses against Cyber, Election-Related Risks

The report, developed from a nationwide survey and expert contributions at the recently concluded Security Thought Leadership Roundtable, identifies internal security threats, protection of national assets, cyber risks and election-related instability as the most significant concerns facing organisations and institutions in the coming year.

According to SSDC, findings from the survey and stakeholder discussions reveal growing concern over the increasing complexity of security challenges and their potential impact on business continuity, economic stability and public confidence.

A substantial number of respondents identified internal threats within organisations as an emerging risk, pointing to the need for stronger corporate governance, workforce integrity measures and structured risk management systems.

Security experts at the roundtable noted that weaknesses in critical public infrastructure and national assets could have far-reaching consequences for the economy and national development if not adequately addressed.

The report also highlights cybercrime as a persistent and evolving threat to both public and private sector institutions.

Participants stressed the importance of strengthening cyber resilience through proactive monitoring, investment in technology-driven safeguards and improved security awareness.

Another key concern raised in the outlook is what SSDC described as the “2027 Election Shadow.” Many respondents expressed concerns about the possibility of heightened political tension as the election season approaches, warning that uncertainty and security disruptions could affect business operations, investment decisions and overall economic confidence.

Speaking on the report’s findings, Mike Igbodipe, managing director, SSDC, called for a more strategic approach to security management across both public and private sectors.

He said organisations must move beyond reactive security measures and integrate security considerations into their broader strategic planning and decision-making processes. He also advocated the development of a gold-standard, locally certified training programme for security professionals tailored to Nigeria’s unique security environment.

SSDC, a security training and consulting firm focused on advancing professional standards in Nigeria’s security sector and strengthening industrial resilience through capacity building and strategic expertise, said the Security Outlook forms part of its ongoing thought leadership initiative aimed at promoting informed dialogue on national security, institutional resilience and risk management.

The company reaffirmed its commitment to supporting stakeholders through research, training and strategic advisory services designed to improve preparedness and response to emerging security challenges.

 

 

 


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Moniepoint DreamDevs Bootcamp Graduates Second Cohort to Strengthen Homegrown Talent Pipeline

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L-r: Co-Founder/Chief Operating Officer, Semicolon, Ashley Immanuel; Employer Brand Manager, Moniepoint, Celestina Dike; Head of Engineering, Moniepoint, John Ojetunde and Head, Talent Acquisition, Moniepoint, Perpetual Ibe at the Moniepoint DreamDevs Demo Day presentation which held in Lagos.
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Moniepoint Inc., Africa’s leading digital financial services provider, has officially graduated the second cohort of its flagship DreamDevs Bootcamp, marking a significant milestone in the company’s ongoing effort to build world-class engineering talent from the ground up.

The graduation was celebrated at a Demo Day event held in Lagos, themed “Training Done! Demo Up!”, where participants presented capstone projects built to real-world engineering standards.

The graduation comes at a crucial time for Africa’s tech ecosystem. Although Nigeria’s tech talent is growing, it isn’t sufficient, especially at the mid-to-senior engineering level, where demand far exceeds supply. By 2030, the global shortage of software developers could reach 85 million, leading to economic losses of $5.5 trillion. For a continent developing its digital infrastructure, this is critical. Moniepoint’s DreamDevs Bootcamp is a strategic response to these challenges.

The nine-week curriculum, created by Moniepoint’s Engineering Unit in partnership with Semicolon, covered Java Object-Oriented Programming, Data Structures and Algorithms, Software Testing, MySQL, Spring Boot APIs, System Design, Docker, Messaging Queues, Frontend UI, and Cloud Infrastructure. Participants received programme stipends and mentorship from experienced Moniepoint software engineers, gaining valuable exposure to the production environment of one of Africa’s fastest-growing fintech firms.

During the Demo Day presentation, the participants paired into 9 teams were excited to showcase how they have deployed knowledge and skills gained during the course of the bootcamp  into real and useful  solutions in real estate, hospital management, event management, food and agriculture.

Commenting, Felix Ike, Co-Founder and Chief Technology Officer of Moniepoint, said, “DreamDevs is a structural investment in Nigeria’s digital economy, not a recruitment exercise, not a pipeline built solely to serve Moniepoint’s hiring needs. That said, we are proud that some graduates from our first cohort are already active members of our engineering team, proof that when young African engineers are given the right training and the right environment, they can compete at the highest level”.

Felix added that “Engineering excellence is not a naturally occurring phenomenon. It is a curated and intentionally built process that requires the right systems, the right resources, and sufficient time to take hold. Building that process and making it accessible to the brightest young engineers on this continent is a responsibility we have chosen to own.

Africa’s digital economy is attracting significant global capital, yet the talent infrastructure required to sustain that growth remains underdeveloped. The DreamDevs Bootcamp and our other capacity-building initiatives across some of Nigeria’s public universities demonstrate Moniepoint’s commitment to this responsibility.

The initiative also aligns with Nigeria’s broader national agenda on technology skills development. Moniepoint serves as a key sponsor of the Federal Government’s 3 Million Technical Talent (3MTT) programme, which focuses on mass technical skills training across the country. While 3MTT addresses the scale challenge, DreamDevs provides depth, offering a specialised, end-to-end pathway from foundational training through to employment within Moniepoint’s complete development ecosystem.

As Nigerian fintechs deepen their infrastructure ambitions, the ability to grow engineering capacity that feeds these aspirations requires an urgent industry intervention, as Moniepoint is demonstrating to address Africa’s engineering talent challenge.


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