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Stocks, Currencies Gain as Investor Optimism Grows over US-China Trade Deal

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By Han Tan, Market Analyst at FXTM,

Most Asian stocks and currencies are gaining as investors grow increasingly hopeful that the US and China can reach a trade deal on Friday. There’s a clear risk-on mood in the markets at the expense of safe haven assets, as Gold trades below $1500, yields on 10-year US Treasuries breach 1.65 percent, and USDJPY breaks above the psychological 108 level for the first time since October 1.

Investors are ready to celebrate any form of a US-China trade deal, even an interim one, having endured trade-related volatility since May. The amount of market fanfare will correspond with the contents of the actual deal, assuming one will be announced later today. Investors are in sore need of a solid pick-me-up beyond mere whispers of a trade pact, and a formal agreement is likely to sustain risk sentiment for the rest of 2019. Still, investors are cognizant that a trade pact that marks a pause in tariff hikes without rolling back any of the tariffs imposed since last year would not solve all of the global economy’s existing problems.

At the other end of market expectations, failure to come to any agreement this week may have dire consequences for the global economy. Keep in mind that the US administration had threatened to raise existing tariffs on $250 billion worth of Chinese goods by 5 percentage points to 30 percent on Tuesday, with potentially more tariffs to follow in December.

 

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Whiffs of Brexit deal send Pound on steepest climb in seven months

Risk sentiment is also being boosted by reports of another crucial deal becoming likelier across the Atlantic.

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Irish premier Leo Varadkar said they have identified a “pathway” towards a Brexit deal. Following the news, GBPUSD breached the 1.245 mark for the first time since September 25 after seeing its biggest one-day jump in seven months, before moderating slightly to converge around its 100-day moving average.

With three weeks remaining before the existing October 31 deadline, markets can expect more twists and turns in the Brexit saga, as has been the case since 2016. This uncertainty also means that the Pound will be highly volatile as the UK endeavours to find its way out of the European Union. The 1.20 level remains the floor supporting Sterling, unless a no-deal Brexit becomes an absolute certainty.

 

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US-China trade deal to act as Brent boost

Brent futures could carve out a path back towards $64/bbl in the event that a US-China trade deal is announced going into the weekend. Despite Brent futures now breaking above the psychological $60/bbl level following news of an Iranian tanker catching fire, investors’ focus remains primarily on the outcome of the trade negotiations in Washington.

Oil markets have been weighed down by demand-side uncertainties, as heightened tariffs have choked global trade. Even in the event of a trade truce, the tariffs that remain in place however will limit Oil’s upside, barring any tightening in global supplies. This could come via a spike in geopolitical tensions involving major Oil producers or a tighter supply-cuts programme by OPEC+.

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FG Taps Indian, Chinese Technologies to Tackle $2.5Bn in Food Losses

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Federal government recently received a proposed protocol agreement from India that could pave the way for agricultural cooperation between the two countries.

FG Taps Indian, Chinese Technologies to Tackle $2.5Bn in Food Losses

Abishek Singh, India’s high commissioner to Nigeria, announced the proposal recently n Abuja during the India-Nigeria Business Forum on Agriculture and Allied Sectors.

New Delhi’s proposed cooperation would support Nigeria’s food security efforts, with the goal of reducing post-harvest losses by nearly 50% and expanding agricultural processing.

It would also cover technology transfers, mechanization, financing solutions and capacity building.

Abuja has opened similar discussions with China.

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Only recently, Mukhtar Muhammed, permanent secretary at the Ministry of Innovation, Science and Technology, said Nigeria wanted to deepen scientific and technological cooperation with Beijing in agriculture.

The discussions with China have focused on developing low-cost, solar-powered cold storage facilities and transferring food-processing technologies.

Nigeria, also wants to work with Chinese research institutes to develop infrastructure that can improve the preservation of perishable products.

Nigeria’s outreach to its Asian partners addresses a major problem for the agricultural sector.

The Bank of Agriculture (BoA) estimates that Africa’s most populous country loses 30 million to 40 million tons of food each year before it reaches consumers.

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Those losses are worth an average of about N3.5 trillion ($2.5 billion) annually, according to data the institution presented at a workshop in Kaduna in July 2026.

Perishable products are particularly vulnerable, according to local media reports, with fruits and vegetables accounting for an estimated 40% to 50% of total losses.

The government has already launched its own response to the problem.

 

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Fake Agency: ICPC Indicts NITDA, Others over Inadequate Due Diligence

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Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPC) indicted the National Information Technology Development Agency (NITDA) and other ministries over administrative lapses that allowed the fictitious Presidential Foreign Investment Promotion Council (PFIPC) to operate.

Fake Agency: ICPC Indicts NITDA, Others over Inadequate Due Diligence

Musa Aliyu, chairman, ICPC, stated that NITDA, alongside the Office of the Secretary to the Government of the Federation (OSGF), the Budget Office, and other bodies, failed to carry out adequate due diligence and standard operating procedures.

ICPC said however,  clarified that the findings pointed to severe internal control weaknesses and administrative negligence rather than active official complicity by NITDA and the other affected agencies.

The briefing followed a 30-day investigation ordered by the president on July 7 into allegations surrounding the purported presidential council.

The commission also cleared the presidency and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) of any wrongdoing but blamed institutional lapses in several ministries, departments and agencies (MDAs).

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Aliyu said investigators established that Adeniyi Adeyemi, the director-general, was never appointed by the federal government and that the PFIPC had no legal existence.

“As you may recall, on the 7th of July, Mr. President directed the ICPC to conduct an investigation into the fake Presidential Foreign Investment Promotion Council and submit a report within 30 days,” he said.

“Today, exactly within the stipulated period, we have submitted an interim report based on our interactions with all stakeholders involved.”

According to Aliyu, Tinubu directed the commission to make its findings public in the interest of transparency and accountability.

He said the investigation found that Adeyemi’s purported appointment letter was forged.

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“It has been established that Adeniyi Adeyemi Matthew was never appointed by the Federal Government or any authority whatsoever,” he said.

“The Presidential Foreign Investment Promotion Council, which sometimes they called the Presidential Foreign Intervention Promotion Council, was never established by any law, executive order or any valid instrument of government.

“The appointment letter presented by Adeniyi Adeyemi Matthew was completely forged alongside similar documents used to perpetuate the illegal activities of the fake agency.”

Aliyu stated that a purported government gazette used to legitimise the organisation was also fabricated.

“If you recall, there was a gazette which he used to support the fake agency. That gazette is an illegal document that never passed through the processes prescribed by law,” he stated.

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“Our investigation found that the office used by the fake agency was the office of the Presidential Economic Advisory Council. The office was broken into and access was gained illegally. That was how he was able to operate from there.”

Aliyu also revealed that investigators uncovered two additional fictitious government agencies allegedly created by the suspect — the FCT Investment Promotion Agency (FIPA) and the Foreign Investment Promotion Agency/Public-Private Partnership (FIPA-PPP).

According to him, fake legislative instruments were used to create the agencies and open bank accounts.

Despite the elaborate scheme, the ICPC chairman said the investigation found no evidence that federal government funds were disbursed to the fake council.

“Our investigation found that no funds of the federal government were approved or disbursed to the fake PFIPC,” he said.

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“We also discovered no weaknesses in the systems of the State House or the Central Bank of Nigeria during our investigation. The fake appointment letter did not originate from the presidency.

“Our investigation found that some public officers failed to carry out due diligence and failed to comply with standard operating procedures in their ministries and departments. That gave him the opportunity to carry out these illegal acts.”

 

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Tax Reform Built on Taxing Prosperity, Not Poverty– Adedeji

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Nigeria tax system is build on taxing prosperity not poverty, according to Dr. Zacch Adedeji, executive chairman, Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS).

Tax Reform Built on Taxing Prosperity, Not Poverty– Adedeji

Dr. Zacch Adedeji, executive chairman, Nigeria Revenue Service

Adedeji, also  dismissed the insinuation that the government’s tax reform is aimed at extracting money from Nigerians .

He said the essence of reform is creating an economic environment where individuals and businesses can prosper.

Dr. Adedeji made the clarifications on Sunday night while appearing on Channels Television’s Politics Today, where he defended the administration’s tax reforms and addressed concerns over rising government revenue amid the economic hardship facing Nigerians.

According to him, the government’s objective is to tax the fruits of investment rather than the investment itself.

“For us at Nigeria Tax, we are not there to extract. Our focus is not revenue. I don’t want to tax poverty. I’m to tax the fruit, not the seed, and I’m to tax the return, not investment.”

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Adedeji explained that the government would generate more revenue as businesses became more profitable, without necessarily increasing the tax burden on individuals and companies.

He said a company that made N100 in profit could generate N30 in tax revenue for the government, but if its profit increased to N200 or N300, government revenue would rise accordingly.

“So, if I want to make more, I must work for you to make more. And that is why it is in the best interest of us in Nigeria Revenue Service that businesses are doing well, individuals are doing well,” he said.

He said the approach was consistent with President Bola Tinubu’s economic agenda, which seeks to remove barriers to investment and create a more conducive environment for businesses to operate and expand.

Adedeji cited reforms in the electricity sector as part of the government’s efforts to stimulate economic activity.

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He noted that the Electricity Act had devolved powers to state governments to generate, transmit and distribute electricity, arguing that improved power supply would boost production and productivity across the economy.

 

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