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Smartphone Volumes Will Return to Growth in 2019 and Beyond- IDC

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The worldwide smartphone market is expected to contract again in 2018 before returning to growth in 2019 and beyond, after declining 0.3% in 2017

According to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, smartphone shipments are forecast to drop 0.2% in 2018 to 1.462 billion units, which is down from 1.465 billion in 2017 and 1.469 billion in 2016.

Looking further out, IDC expects the market is to grow roughly 3% annually from 2019 onwards with worldwide shipment volume reaching 1.654 billion in 2022 and a five year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.5%.

The biggest driver of the 2017 downturn was China, which saw its smartphone market decline 4.9% year over year.

Tough times are expected to continue in 2018 as IDC forecasts consumption in China to decline another 7.1% before flattening out in 2019.

The biggest upside in Asia/Pacific continues to be India with volumes expected to grow 14% and 16% in 2018 and 2019.

Chinese OEMs will continue their strategy of selling large volumes of low-end devices by shifting their focus from China to India.

So far most have been able to get around the recently introduced India import tariffs by doing final device assembly at local India manufacturing plants.

As for components, almost everything is still being sourced from China.

Ryan Reith, program vice president with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Device Trackers. said “With 2017 now behind us a lot of interesting market dynamics are unfolding,”

“Even though it declined 5% in 2017, China remains the focal point for many given that it consumes roughly 30% of the world’s smartphones.

“But plenty of pockets of growth can be found beyond China. India is now grabbing headlines and the market itself is going through some rapid transformation.

“Local India manufacturing continues to ramp up, despite still having a heavy dependence on China for components.

“The boom in India is likely to continue in the years to come, but the move toward building up local production has certainly caught the eye of many in the industry.”

Outside of Asia/Pacific, the biggest regions for growth will be the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America.

All three regions have relatively low penetration rates and plenty of upsides.

Economic challenges have been the main inhibitor over the past two years, but IDC expects consumer spending to rise throughout the forecast and smartphones to be a big benefactor.

The other catalyst to watch will be the introduction of 5G smartphones.

IDC predicts the first commercially ready 5G smartphones will appear in the second half of 2019 with a ramp up across most regions happening in 2020.

IDC projects 5G smartphone volumes to account for roughly 7% of all smartphones in 2020 or 212 million in total.

The share of 5G devices should grow to 18% of total volumes by 2022.

Anthony Scarsella, research manager with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, said “Although overall smartphone shipments will decline slightly in 2018, the average selling price (ASP) of a smartphone will reach $345, up 10.3% from the $313 ASP in 2017.

“This year will continue to focus on the ultra-high-end segment of the market as we expect a surge of premium flagship devices to launch in developed markets in 2018.

“Devices featuring large AMOLED bezel-less displays, advanced camera functions, and an overall increase in speed and performance will be the driving factor in the increase of ASPs.

“Moving forward, we can expect this trend to continue as the ASP for a smartphone will continue to grow throughout the forecast period.

“In 2022, the final year of our forecast period, the average selling price for a smartphone will be $362, resulting in a 5-year CAGR of 2.9%.”

Platform Highlights show that Android’s share of total smartphones is expected to remain relatively stable at 85% of total shipments worldwide.

Volumes are expected to grow at a five-year CAGR of 2.5%, with shipments totaling 1.41 billion by 2022.

There is no question that Android is the OS of choice for the mass market and nothing leads us to believe this will change.

Given the large number of Chinese OEMs dependent on Google’s OS, as well as components from other U.S. companies like Qualcomm, it will be interesting to see how things develop with all the discussion about a US-China trade war.

Android OEMs continue to drive down the coast of new technology features at a rapid pace.

IDC estimates that 98% of Android phones will ship with screens larger than 5 inches by 2022, with 36% being 6 inches or larger.

While some of this will remain premium flagship models, the aggregate ASP of Android phones with a 6-inch screen or greater by 2022 is projected to be $414.

iOS: iPhone volumes are expected to grow 2.6% in 2018 to 221 million in total.

IDC is forecasting iPhones to grow at a five-year CAGR of 2.4%, reaching volumes of 242 million by 2022.

With rumors of some upcoming larger screen iOS smartphones, IDC has changed its screen size forecast for Apple by introducing volumes greater than 6 inches.

Products are likely to begin shipping in the fourth quarter of 2018, with volumes ramping up and accounting for 36% of all iPhones shipped by 2022.

 

 


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Ugo Onwuaso is an ICT enthusiast. He believes technology should be used for general good. He holds a Master of Public Administration (MPA) degree from the Lagos state University. Dear Reader, Your support matters. But we believe that technology makes life more exciting and helps improve the lives of people around Nigeria and indeed the world. That is why, we have devoted our energy to independent reportage of technology and finance and how they affect lives. Our incisive and analytical view of how technology news affects the daily life help individuals and organizations make up their minds. Quality journalism costs money. Today, we're asking that you support us to do more. Kindly support our effort to deliver technology and finance journalism to everyone in the world. Donate as little as N1,000. Bank transfers can be made to: UBA Plc 1017156876 Communication Week Media Ltd

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Why Elon Musk Halted Sales of Starlink in Lagos, Abuja

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Starlink, the satellite internet provider operated by Elon Musk’s SpaceX, has stopped taking new orders for residential kits in parts of Lagos and in Abuja after network capacity was reached, the company’s online ordering page shows.

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Neighborhoods listed as sold out include Victoria Island, Ikoyi, Lagos Island and Surulere.

Prospective customers in those areas can join a wait list by paying a deposit and will be notified when service space opens.

At Chevyville Estate in Lekki, one resident trying to subscribe was met with a message that read: “Starlink service is currently at capacity in your area. However, you can place a deposit now to reserve your spot on the waitlist and receive a notification as soon as service becomes available again.”

That experience mirrors what consumers in other busy districts are seeing.

A Starlink engineer who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal limits said the company temporarily closes new sales in zones where adding customers would degrade service for existing users.

“It happens when the area cannot take a new customer due to its designed capacity at the time,” the engineer said.

“This also helps preserve a steady connection for people already online.” Remedies can include adding more ground infrastructure, securing regulatory clearances, or expanding satellite coverage.

Since entering Nigeria, Starlink’s monthly fee has climbed: the service began at about N38,000 (roughly $25), rose to about N45,000 ($30) and — by 2025 — was charging roughly N56,000 ($37).

Starlink has cited naira depreciation, higher operating expenses and costs tied to meeting rules set by the Nigerian Communications Commission for the increases.

Those higher prices, and the service interruptions, appear to have affected subscription numbers. After a near eight-month pause that began in November 2024 and was tied to limited bandwidth and regulatory issues, orders resumed in late June 2025.

Still, data from the NCC show active Starlink users in Nigeria fell from 65,564 in the fourth quarter of 2024 to 59,509 in the first quarter of 2025, a decline of more than 6,000 users, or about 9 percent.

Analysts point to the price rises, service holds and economic pressure as key reasons for the drop; some customers have switched to cheaper alternatives or stopped service.

As Elon Musk maintains his position as the world’s richest individual, with a net worth of $429 billion (according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index), his commitment to global digital inclusion through Starlink remains a central focus.

Starlink’s activity in Nigeria is part of a wider push across Africa.

The company has recently moved to enter markets including Lesotho and Somalia and secured permission to operate in the Democratic Republic of Congo after earlier restrictions,

SpaceX is also working with operators such as Airtel Africa to reach rural areas where wired internet is scarce.

For many users in Nigeria, the appeal of Starlink remains clear: a reliable option where terrestrial networks falter.

But until the company expands capacity or adjusts pricing, consumers in dense urban pockets may have to wait for access or turn to other providers.

 

Credit excluding Headline: Pm News

 

 

 


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Google Expands Digital Infrastructure with Four New Subsea Cable Hubs and $9m AI Fund for Africa

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Google has announced a new set of investments in Africa, reaffirming its nearly two-decade commitment to the continent’s digital transformation.

The latest commitments focus on empowering Africa’s next generation through AI, unlocking opportunities and expanding on the innovation capacity of young Africans. They cover internet connectivity; youth-led learning and innovation; and skills training.

Connectivity

Google is announcing four strategic subsea cable connectivity hubs in the north, south, east and west regions of Africa. This investment creates new digital corridors within Africa and between Africa and the rest of the world – ultimately deepening international connectivity and resilience, as well as spurring economic growth and opportunity.

This is the latest addition to Google’s Africa Connect infrastructure program, which sees the company build vital connectivity across the continent: including the Google Cloud region in Johannesburg serving users across the continent, the Equiano cable running along the entire western seaboard of the continent, and Umoja, the first fiber optic route to directly connect Africa with Australia (running through Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Zambia, Zimbabwe and South Africa).

Google’s investments to date have enabled 100 million Africans to access the internet for the first time, and the Equiano cable alone is expected to increase real GDP this year in Nigeria, South Africa and Namibia by an estimated $11.1 billion, $5.8 billion and $290 million, respectively.

Youth-led learning and innovation

Enabling Africa’s young people to learn, innovate and lead is critical to Africa’s development and economic growth. That’s why Google is today also announcing free one-year subscriptions to Google AI Pro plan for college students (18 or older) across the continent – starting with Egypt, Ghana, Kenya, Morocco, Nigeria, South Africa, Rwanda and Zimbabwe. The subscription provides advanced AI to students – from Deep Research, which helps save time with custom research reports and in-depth information from hundreds of sources across the web, to Gemini 2.5 Pro, which provides help with assignments or writing.

Building skills and solutions

Equipping people with AI skills is critical. To date, Google has trained 7 million Africans and plans to train an additional 3 million students, young people, and teachers by 2030. Google is also bolstering local capacity by providing African universities and research institutions with over $17 million in funding, curriculum, training and compute and access to advanced AI models over the past four years – with an additional $9 million planned for the coming year.

On the announcements, Alex Okosi, Managing Director for Google in Africa, said: “Africa’s digital economy holds immense potential, and it will be driven by the talent and ingenuity of its next generation. Today’s announcements, spanning AI education, advanced tools for students, and expanded connectivity, are a unified investment into the upward trajectory of the continent.

“We are committed to providing the foundational infrastructure, the cutting-edge tools, and the financial support necessary for Africa’s youth to innovate, lead, and build a thriving digital world.”

Google’s long term partnership

These announcements are the latest chapter in Google’s long-term investment in the continent, which has delivered on $1 billion of investment. Google’s sustained commitment to Africa has included driving connectivity; training more than 7 million people across the continent in digital skills to support the future workforce; and supporting 153 startups from 17 African nations through the Google for Startups Accelerator Africa, helping them raise $300 million and create 3,500 jobs.

AI creates an unprecedented opportunity to benefit everyone, and Google is committed to making that a reality for people, businesses and communities across Africa. Today’s announcements are another example of how Google is continuing to expand connectivity, increase product access and skills across the continent and enable African-led innovation – with more to come.


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MTN Nigeria to Lease Spectrum from T2 Mobile, Ends Agreement with Ntel

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MTN Nigeria Communications Plc has secured regulatory approval from the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) to lease frequency spectrum from T2 Mobile Limited (formerly 9Mobile), marking a strategic shift in its network expansion plans.

Effective October 1, 2025, MTN will lease 5MHz in the 900MHz band and 15MHz in the 1800MHz band from T2 Mobile for a period of three years.

This move supports MTN’s national roaming agreement with T2, enabling shared infrastructure to manage growing network traffic and improve service delivery

According to MTN Nigeria CEO Karl Toriola, the agreement aligns with the company’s Ambition 2025 strategy, which emphasizes cost-effective, sustainable growth, industry collaboration, and digital inclusion.

In a related development, MTN Nigeria has announced it will not renew its current spectrum lease with Natcom Development and Investment Ltd (Ntel). That lease—covering 5MHz in the 900MHz band and 10MHz in the 1800MHz band across 17 states—is set to expire on November 29, 2025.

MTN reaffirmed its commitment to investing in infrastructure and strategic partnerships to deliver high-quality, innovative telecom services across Nigeria.


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