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Subdued Hit from COVID-19, Subdued Rebound Too

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By Gregory Kronsten

The impact of COVID-19 on output in Nigeria is likely to be less severe than on many comparable economies. The IMF’s World Economic Outlook in April saw GDP contraction of -3.4 per cent this year and a rebound of just 2.4 per cent in 2021.

We might think that in the early days of COVID-19 (outside China) the Fund then lacked the materials to make credible projections. Yet earlier this month the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects came up with a similar narrative (-3.2 per cent in 2020 and 1.7 per cent next year). For the record, FBNQuest Research’s projections are -3.1 per cent and 2.2 per cent respectively.

Official sources in Nigeria have a melancholier take. Earlier this week Sarah Alade, Economic Advisor to the President and Former Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Deputy Governor, was quoted as sharing a best-case scenario of -4.4 per cent this year and a worst of more than -8.0 per cent contraction.

The governor has suggested, in contrast, that the damage could be less than indicated by the Fund. The point of interest is less the precise number than the underlying story.

We see several domestic and external reasons for Nigeria’s hit to be less strong than that of other emerging markets (EMs). The World Bank projects contraction of -7.1 per cent in South Africa this year, for example, while its central bank (SARB) forecasts -7.0 per cent.

Agriculture is the largest sector of the Nigerian economy and has a large subsistence component that is insulated from COVID-19. The Nigerian economy as a whole enjoys some protection from global headwinds with the obvious exception of the crude oil price.

Manufacturing produces consumer goods for the domestic market, and the reach of global supply chains into Nigeria is limited. Unlike large EMs such as Brazil and Argentina, it is not an important trading nation. Nor is Nigeria a regional hub for air transport. Unlike South Africa and Kenya, it is not a tourist destination other than for its large diaspora in the holiday season.

These factors should limit the contraction of the economy. That said, all the forecasts mentioned for the year would still result in one of the worst GDP outturns ever for Nigeria. We should remember that the per head figure would be far worse, given the annual growth in the population of 2.8 per cent.

A Lagos-based survey by REACH Technologies has indicated an average decline in incomes of about 30 per cent between March and end of May. Carried out on behalf of FBNQuest, the survey also found that respondents cut their spending on high-value items by about 22 per cent over the same period.

As the hit this year will be weaker than that on its peers, so will the rebound in 2021 be for the same reasons. Ideally Nigeria’s growth trajectory would be closer to its peers because it would then be more incorporated within the global village. The federal government does have the opportunity to make changes to increase that degree of incorporation. We note that the federal finance ministry has been quoted as saying that it has permanently exited gasoline subsidies.

We saw an earlier statement to the same effect from the top brass in the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, which has been absorbing the cost below the operational in its accounts. Taking the two together, we are hopeful.

Gregory Kronsten is Head Macroeconomic and Fixed Income Research, FBNQuest


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MasterCard Predicts Africa’s AI Market to Soar to $16.5Bn by 2030

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A new MasterCard report has predicted that Africa’s AI economy will more than triple in five years, reaching $16.5 billion by 2030 from $4.5 billion in 2025.

The whitepaper by the global payments technology company, with a presence in over 50 African countries, identifies responsible adoption, stronger data infrastructure, and aggressive skills development as the three pillars that will determine who benefits.

Mark Elliott, division president for Africa at MasterCard, emphasised that Africa stands at an inflection point, where smart technologies have the potential to make a real difference in people’s lives.

He likened AI’s potential to the continent’s leap into mobile money, which bypassed traditional banking infrastructure and brought millions into the financial system.

“Digital innovation, particularly AI, can drive real change on the ground by empowering communities and building a future where everyone participates in the new economy,” Elliott said.

The in-depth study flags several African frontrunners in AI adoption. South Africa tops the list, blending advanced infrastructure with strong research capabilities. It points out that Kenya is making strides with practical AI solutions, from credit scoring to healthcare services in local languages.

Nigeria’s vibrant start-up scene also gets a strong mention for attracting significant venture capital, while Morocco’s strong push in healthcare, agriculture, and energy, underpinned by bold national digital strategies, is another key driver.

Elliott stressed that success depends on powering electricity access, digitisation, and ensuring AI is fuelled by diverse, high-quality local data.

He added that inclusive transformation needs everyone involved, from small businesses to large corporations, policymakers, and communities. “The only good AI is responsible AI,” said Elliot.

Greg Ulrich, MasterCard’s chief AI and data officer, said Africa’s relationship with technology is one of active innovation, pointing to mobile payments as a homegrown success.

“AI is accelerating this transformation, reshaping how people live, work, and connect,” he said. Ulrich described MasterCard’s fraud detection systems, trained in cities like Lagos, Nairobi, and Johannesburg, as proof that global expertise and local talent can combine to deliver secure, real-time services.

He also cautioned that with scale comes responsibility. “Trust is earned, one transaction at a time,” Ulrich said.

He believes that with one of the world’s youngest populations, Africa’s next challenge is turning strategy into delivery, building infrastructure, nurturing talent, and ensuring AI lifts all communities.

 


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Huawei Hosts MTN MIP Fellows for Immersive Tech Experience in Lagos

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L-R: Isaac Ogugua-Ezechukwu, Programs Administrator, Professional Education, School of Media and Communications, Pan-Atlantic University; Blessings Mosugu, Vice President, MTN Media Innovation Programme Cohort 4; Gavin Geng Xiaoyan, Director of Solution Sales\Chief Technical Officer, Huawei; Vanessa Ukamaka Richard, Secretary, MTN MIP Cohort 4 and Dr Chike Mgbeadichie, Programs Director, Professional Education, School of Media and Communications, Pan-Atlantic University, during the July session of the MTN Media Innovation Program held at the Huawei office in Victoria Island, recently.
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The fellows of MTN Media Innovation Programme (MIP) Cohort 4 recently embarked on an immersive tour of Huawei’s Innovation Center, Cloud Service Centre, and Network Support Centre in Lagos, as part of their ongoing industry exposure sessions.

L-R: Isaac Ogugua-Ezechukwu, Programs Administrator, Professional Education, School of Media and Communications, Pan-Atlantic University; Blessings Mosugu, Vice President, MTN Media Innovation Programme Cohort 4; Gavin Geng Xiaoyan, Director of Solution Sales\Chief Technical Officer, Huawei; Vanessa Ukamaka Richard, Secretary, MTN MIP Cohort 4 and Dr Chike Mgbeadichie, Programs Director, Professional Education, School of Media and Communications, Pan-Atlantic University, during the July session of the MTN Media Innovation Program held at the Huawei office in Victoria Island, recently.

At the Huawei Innovation Center, the fellows were introduced to a wide array of next-generation technologies. Demonstrations covered Huawei’s smart city solutions, advanced power technologies, cloud systems, and upgraded router and antenna designs. These solutions represent the core of Huawei’s contributions as a strategic partner in MTN’s journey from a connectivity provider to a digital enabler.

One of the highlights of the tour was a live demo of an AI-powered video generator, which transformed selfies into high-definition 30-second avatar-based videos. The videos, created and delivered within seconds via Bluetooth, showcased the real-time capabilities of 5G.

Speaking on how 5G is transforming digital lifestyle globally, the Deputy Managing Director, Marketing and Solutions at Huawei Nigeria, Gavin Geng, noted that “Huawei’s goal is to bridge the gap between global innovation and local demand by tailoring technology to meet Nigeria’s specific challenges. From delivering Nigeria’s first digital village alongside our partners, to launching Nigeria’s first local cloud service, we are committed to working with our customers to build infrastructure that serve both urban and underserved communities.”

He emphasised Huawei’s commitment to security and cutting-edge innovation, adding that “as an employee-owned company adhering to strict global security standards, we ensure that customers’ data and connectivity remain secure while they benefit from next-gen solutions such as 5G, AI, smart city technologies.”

The session underscored MTN’s readiness to meet the increasing demands of Nigeria’s data-driven population and support the country’s digital transformation goals.

Afterwards, the fellows received certificates to commemorate the visit and proceeded to the Huawei Service Centre. Spanning 4,000 square metres, the facility supports operations in telecoms, finance, transportation, power, and public service.

With a dedicated DevOps team, the centre customises its monitoring systems for different clients. It is ISO27001 certified, and all employees hold security certifications, reflecting its emphasis on data protection and operational excellence.

To wrap up the day, the MIP cohort was hosted to a dinner attended by MTN’s Chief Services and Sustainability Officer, Tobechukwu Okigbo. He encouraged the delegates to maximise the opportunity the programme offers and shared personal insights during an experience-sharing moment.


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NIMC Sets 48-hour Deadline for Diaspora Partners to Activate New Licences

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The National Identity Management Commission (NIMC) has given its Diaspora Front-End Partners (FEPs) 48 hours to obtain and activate their National Identification Number (NIN) enrolment licences on its newly upgraded diaspora enrolment platform.

The commission said the deadline followed the successful completion of a major upgrade aimed at improving the security, efficiency and reliability of NIN registration for Nigerians living abroad.

According to NIMC, the upgraded platform will offer a more seamless and robust service to diaspora applicants, ensuring faster processing and better data protection. To prepare for the transition, all FEPs have been onboarded onto the new system and taken through intensive training to equip them with the knowledge needed for effective management of the platform.

Once compliant partners activate their licences, Nigerians abroad will be able to access NIN enrolment services through them without disruption.

“The Commission apologises for any inconvenience the upgrade process might have caused and has set up a dedicated service team to resolve all issues related to diaspora enrolment,” NIMC said in a statement signed by Dr. Kayode Adegoke, its head of corporate communications.

Diaspora applicants experiencing difficulties have been advised to contact the commission for prompt assistance.

While the new system rolls out overseas, NIN enrolment continues across all centres in Nigeria, with applicants able to locate their nearest centres on the NIMC website. Nigerians at home or abroad can also modify their NIN data via the online self-service portal.

NIMC further encouraged NIN holders to download the NIMC NINAuth App on iOS or Google Play to instantly verify their NIN, control who can access their information, and enjoy secure authentication services.

 


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