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The Rise of New Industry Stocks Under COVID-19 – FBNQuest

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Gregory Kronsten

Where Big Oil, Big Pharma, bulge-bracket investment banks and Coca Cola once dominated US stock markets, their roles have now been usurped by the likes of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Tesla Motors.

The stellar performance of US equities in this year of COVID-19 can be traced to these new industries, in which we are generously including Amazon.

This sea-change came to mind when we saw media coverage of the annual sustainability report from Kenya’s Safaricom. The company estimates that it made a KES654bn (US$6.1bn) contribution to Kenya’s GDP in the 12 months to March 2020, equivalent to 6 per cent of GDP. The calculation covers jobs, opportunities for other firms along the value chain, taxes and dividends paid to the government, which has a 35 per cent stake, and its other shareholders.

More than one million Kenyans are directly or indirectly employed by the company in a population of 54 million. Because it employs people across the country such as its huge network of agents, we might argue that the company also contributes to social cohesion and stability.

Safaricom is easily the largest company listed on the local stock exchange with market cap of US$11.2bn, and on three days out of four, is the most traded stock.

Our instinct might well be to dismiss the sustainability report as the work of public relations executives. This, however, would be to overlook the sensitivity required of a huge employer making robust profits in a low-income country. The company must tread carefully when it has the government as a large minority shareholder.

Similarly, MTN Nigeria (MTNN) also has to remain cautious, having been fined US$5bn equivalent (subsequently negotiated downwards) for regulatory breaches that appeared to have had national security implications. Being necessarily spread across the country, it is vulnerable to pressure from state and local governments.

It is almost certainly the largest single non-oil taxpayer in Nigeria as well as being the largest listed company. MTNN is among the five most traded stocks in Lagos, while the two leaders are banks. Dangote Cement runs up close, having a market cap of US$6.4bn compared with MTNN’s US$7.2bn. This market cap is less than Safaricom’s because mobile penetration by any measure, including digital payments, is far more embedded in Kenya than in Nigeria.

The position of the two mobile operators has predictably strengthened since the emergence of COVID-19, as digital payments in Kenya rose by 28 per cent year on year (y/y) to KES474bn (US$4.4bn) in August.

The growth may look less impressive once the ban on fees on the transactions, ordered by the central bank, is lifted. From a low base and in a far larger economy, the increase in Nigeria was 119 per cent y/y to N852bn (US$2.2bn) in May.

Nevertheless, the relentless march forward of mobile players has not been uniform across Africa. We note that in Zimbabwe, payment platforms have been subjected to extensive new controls following a central bank study that found they were widely used for parallel market transactions and thus undermined its exchange-rate reforms. The study unearthed, for example, fictitious accounts that had not been tested by the mandatory Know-Your-Customer process.

Broadly, we see that in Africa, as in the US, information and other technology has been a high-profile winner this year. It was already in the driving seat and has cemented its position. The industry’s challenges ahead will be with regulators on perceived grounds of unfair competition and monopolistic practices.

Gregory Kronsten is Head, Macroeconomic and Fixed Income Research, FBNQuest


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E-Financial

SEC Revokes Registration of Kensington Agro Trading Limited

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Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has revoked the registration of Kensington Agro Trading Limited as a capital market operator with immediate effect.

SEC Revokes Registration of Kensington Agro Trading Limited

In a public notice issued by the Commission, the regulator announced that Kensington Agro Trading Limited’s registration as a Commodity Broker/Dealer and Collateral Manager has been withdrawn, effectively stripping the company of its authority to operate within Nigeria’s capital market.

According to the notice, the revocation was carried out pursuant to the powers vested in the Commission under Section 61(6) of the Investments and Securities Act, 2025, as well as Rule 34(1) of the SEC Rules and Regulations 2013, as amended.

The SEC stated that the decision takes immediate effect and urged all stakeholders to take note of the development.

“Accordingly, commodity exchanges, the investing public, commodity traders, and all capital market stakeholders are advised to discontinue capital market-related dealings with the company,” the Commission said.

The directive means that Kensington Agro Trading Limited is no longer authorised to engage in any capital market activities under the regulatory oversight of the SEC. Market participants have been cautioned to avoid entering into transactions or maintaining business relationships with the firm in its former capacity as a registered operator.

While the notice did not specify the reasons for the revocation, such regulatory actions are typically taken in line with the Commission’s mandate to ensure compliance with extant laws, protect investors, and maintain market integrity.

The SEC, headquartered in Abuja, reiterated its commitment to upholding transparency, investor protection, and strict adherence to regulatory standards in Nigeria’s capital market.

The Commission’s action underscores its continued enforcement drive aimed at sanitizing the market and ensuring that only duly registered and compliant operators are permitted to function within the ecosystem.

Stakeholders and members of the public are encouraged to verify the registration status of capital market operators through official SEC channels before engaging in investment-related transactions.


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NRS Targets N40trillion in Tax, Royalty Revenue in 2026

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Nigerians’ commitment to paying taxes has produced historic results. In 2025, voluntary compliance propelled the Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS) to collect a record ₦28.3 trillion, exceeding its target of ₦25.2 trillion and setting the stage for an even more ambitious 2026.

Dr. Zacch Adedeji, the Executive Chairman of NRS, while hailing the development recorded in 2025, announced that the service is targeting ₦40.7 trillion in tax and royalty collections for 2026, a 44% increase over last year.

The projection reflects reforms consolidating petroleum and mineral royalties under the NRS, streamlining a process previously handled by over 60 federal agencies, including the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission and the Nigeria Customs Service.

“With legislative support, we are confident of achieving this,” Dr. Adedeji said at a stakeholders’ roundtable organized by the House of Representatives Committee on Appropriations in Abuja.

The reforms, anchored in the Nigeria Revenue Service Establishment Act, 2025, signed by President Bola Tinubu, formalized the NRS and launched the most comprehensive tax overhaul in decades. By consolidating fragmented revenue collection, the NRS has strengthened efficiency, reduced compliance burdens, and expanded the tax base, particularly in non-oil sectors.

Finance Minister Mr. Wale Edun emphasized that the reforms aim to reduce reliance on Ways and Means financing and unsustainable subsidy arrangements funded by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited.

Meanwhile, Chairman of the House Committee on Appropriations, Rep. Abubakar Bichi, during the stakeholders’ roundtable organized by the House of Representatives Committee on Appropriations in Abuja, assured that legislative oversight will ensure credibility, transparency, and accountability in revenue collection and enforcement.

The NRS’s new mandate signals more consistent enforcement, reduced regulatory overlap, and closer scrutiny of non-oil sectors and mineral operators. For investors, the reforms indicate a centralized revenue administration and a broader, more reliable tax base, potentially reducing macroeconomic volatility if targets are met.

Dr. Adedeji, speaking at the Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC) Annual Strategic Stakeholders Retreat, emphasized that Nigeria’s journey toward a one-trillion-dollar economy depends heavily on trust.

“Strong bank capitalization and effective enforcement give confidence to the system. When people know their funds are safe, whether one naira or billions, they are more willing to save, invest, and participate in nation-building,” he said.

The NRS has also strengthened collaboration with key stakeholders, including a courtesy visit from KPMG executives, who commended the leadership and timely implementation of new tax laws, pledging continued professional engagement in support of national economic growth.

In another strategic engagement, Dr. Adedeji and Minister of State for Finance, Dr. Doris Uzoka-Anite, met with Central Bank of Nigeria Governor, Olayemi Cardoso, to align fiscal and monetary policies, further promoting sustainable national development.

With strong momentum from 2025 and a clear vision for 2026, the NRS aims not only to boost domestic revenue but also to strengthen public trust, enhance compliance, and drive national development. As Dr. Adedeji emphasized, “Your compliance strengthens our economy and drives national development.”

Nigeria’s taxpayers can take pride in their role in this historic achievement, and in shaping the country’s economic future.


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Nigeria’s Net Reserves Surge 50% to $34.8bn in 2025 – CBN Governor

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Nigeria’s net foreign exchange reserves surged to $34.80 billion by end-2025, Central Bank Governor Olayemi Cardoso disclosed, marking a 50.58 percent rise of $11.69 billion from $23.11 billion in 2024.

Nigeria's Net Reserves Surge 50% to $34.8bn in 2025 – CBN Governor

CBN

The figure—a 772.18 percent leap or $30.81 billion improvement from 2023’s $3.99 billion—exceeds 2023’s gross reserves of $33.22 billion, signaling robust external financial buffers after adjusting for short-term liabilities like FX swaps and forwards.

Gross external reserves simultaneously grew from $40.19 billion in 2024 to $45.71 billion in 2025, up $5.52 billion, providing a truer gauge of capacity to meet immediate obligations.

Cardoso credited stronger external fundamentals, FX management transparency, and monetary reforms boosting investor confidence and exchange rate stability.

The CBN remains focused on reserve adequacy for macroeconomic balance and seamless FX operations. Cardoso noted in February 2026 that gross reserves continued climbing amid reform momentum.


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