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US Elections: Trump Wins! What Does this Mean for Nigeria?

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By Lukman Otunuga, Senior Market Analyst At FXTM

America has chosen Republican Donald Trump as its 47th president following a tight race for the White House!

As of writing, Trump has secured 277 electoral votes with Republicans taking control of the Senate. If the House comes under his control, this will be a “red sweep” scenario.

Assets tied to the “Trump trade” rallied during the Asian session after Trump took an early lead with his victory keeping bulls in the game. US futures are flashing green, Treasury yields have jumped while Bitcoin hit an all-time high.

Before election day, we thoroughly discussed a list of assets that could soar on a Trump win:

· US dollar: jumped 1.8% – its biggest 1-day gain since February 2023 on the prospects of slower rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

· Bitcoin: rallied almost 10% to hit a fresh all-time high above $75,000 as crypto enthusiasts cheered a pro crypto president.

· S&P500 index: futures climbed 1.4% signalling that the S&P500 will open hitting fresh all-time highs. As mentioned in our week ahead report, the prospects of corporate tax cuts and a softer regulatory environment under Trump is good news for US equity bulls.

What does this mean for Nigeria?

Trump’s victory may pressure oil prices as he is seen pushing for a further increase in domestic oil and gas production, leading to increased supply in the long term.

In addition, his policies could see a boost in US growth – triggering inflationary pressures.

Should this prompt the Fed to keep interest rates higher for longer, a stronger dollar may drag oil prices lower as a result. This could be bad news for major oil producing countries who acquire most of their revenues from oil sales.

For Nigeria, the combination of lower global oil prices and a stronger dollar could add to its woes as it navigates a rough period.

Here are assets that could be burned by Trump’s return to the White House:

· Gold: dropped as much as 1.5% thanks to a stronger dollar and rising Treasury yields. The prospect of slower Fed rate cuts could limit upside gains.

· Chinese stock indices: slipped this morning amid renewed fears over US-China trade tensions.

· European stock indices: flashed red due to concerns over the impacts of Trumps proposed tariffs on Europe.

· Currencies of major US trading partners: Euro (EUR), Chinese Yuan (CNH), and especially Mexican Peso (MXN) have all weakened against the USD.

The bigger picture…

Trump’s return to the White House will most likely set the market tone for the next few years with the USD, Bitcoin and other assets tied to the “Trump trade” the biggest winners.

Investors with some skin in the game have already experienced how markets reacted under Trump between 2017 – 2021.

Trump’s unpredictability, policy uncertainty and tariff wars with China left investors on edge. This and other major themes triggered sharp moves on the Vix index during his term. Market volatility jumped over 60% during Trump’s previous administration, from 2017 until 2020. Since then, volatility fell about 10% under President Biden.

What does this mean?

And Trump’s return to the White House is likely to trigger fresh levels of volatility across the globe.

· Trump’s proposed tariff increases in Europe and China could spark a global trade war.

· If this pushes up the prices for American consumers, a return of inflation may spell higher interest rates – boosting the USD.

· An appreciating USD could hit gold prices along with emerging market currencies.

· On the geopolitical front, Trump has already vowed to “stop wars” and swiftly end the war in Ukraine. Any major shifts in US foreign policy that escalate tensions could trigger risk-aversion.

By the way….

With the US election done and dusted, the next market-moving event could be Thursday’s Fed rate decision.
As discussed in our week ahead report, US interest rates are widely expected to be cut by 25 basis points in November. But the election outcome is likely to determine what action the Fed will take in December and beyond.
Traders are currently pricing in a 67% probability of another 25-basis point cut by December.

Given how Trump’s victory could lead to rising inflationary pressures down the road, this may prompt the Fed to keep interest rates higher for longer.

It will be wise to keep a close eye on the US dollar and gold which remain sensitive to US rate expectations.

· A less dovish than expected Fed may push the US dollar higher while pulling gold further away from its all-time high at $2790.

· If the Fed confirms that a December cut is still on the table, this may limit the USD’s upside while supporting gold prices.


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Ugo Onwuaso is an ICT enthusiast. He believes technology should be used for general good. He holds a Master of Public Administration (MPA) degree from the Lagos state University. Dear Reader, Your support matters. But we believe that technology makes life more exciting and helps improve the lives of people around Nigeria and indeed the world. That is why, we have devoted our energy to independent reportage of technology and finance and how they affect lives. Our incisive and analytical view of how technology news affects the daily life help individuals and organizations make up their minds. Quality journalism costs money. Today, we're asking that you support us to do more. Kindly support our effort to deliver technology and finance journalism to everyone in the world. Donate as little as N1,000. Bank transfers can be made to: UBA Plc 1017156876 Communication Week Media Ltd

E-Financial

Access Bank Staff Arrested for Allegedly Stealing from Customers’ Accounts

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The Katsina State police command, on Thursday, paraded one Adewumi Gabriel, Head of ATM Operations of Access Bank Daura branch, for conspiring with a colleague to steal the sum of N18 million from a customer’s account.

Adewumi confessed to conspiring with David Mesioye, now at large, using their expertise of the bank’s operations to carry out the theft discovered during an audit.

Spokesperson of Katsina State Police Command, Abubakar Aliyu said, some of the exhibits recovered from Adewumi include the sum of N10.18million from his different bank accounts and a physical cash of N366,900, among other valuables.

In a separate incident, Bishir Abdullahi, a 37-year-old resident of Sokoto State, was arrested at an Old Generation Bank ATM in Katsina with 14 stolen ATM cards in his possession.

According to Sadiq, the suspect was a notorious fraudster who specialised in swapping ATM cards of unsuspecting members of the public at ATM points.

He explained that the suspect was arrested by a police officer on duty at the bank’s branch of Tudun Katsira quarters in the Katsina metropolis, following suspicious activities around the ATM machine.

“Upon instant search, 14 suspected stolen ATM cards of different banks were found in his possession.

“Preliminary investigation revealed that the suspect had been using the stolen ATM cards to withdraw sums of money from his victims’ accounts.

“The total amount withdrawn by the suspect from the victims’ accounts is N2.705million. The suspect will be charged to court upon completion of the investigation.”


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PalmPay Reaffirms Commitment to Combating Financial Fraud

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PalmPay, a leading fintech company in Nigeria, has reiterated its commitment to combating financial fraud through cutting-edge technology. This was emphasized during a high-level courtesy visit by the company’s Managing Director and management team to the Nigerian Financial Intelligence Unit (NFIU).

Addressing the growing prevalence of fraud in the country, Chika Nwosu, Managing Director of PalmPay Limited, stressed the need for robust collaboration between fintech companies and government agencies. “At PalmPay, we believe that a secure financial ecosystem is the foundation for a thriving digital economy,” he stated.

“Our partnership with the NFIU underscores our dedication to supporting Nigeria’s anti-fraud and anti-money laundering (AML) efforts. Together, we aim to ensure a safer digital experience for all Nigerians.”

Chika also highlighted the significant rise in electronic payment transactions across Nigeria’s financial system, underscoring the importance of proactive measures to address emerging threats.

PalmPay reaffirmed its support for the NFIU’s mission to safeguard the country’s financial infrastructure. The company outlined plans for close collaboration with the agency, including knowledge-sharing initiatives, stakeholder training programs, and the development of innovative solutions to combat fraud in the digital space.

Hafsat Abubakar Bakari, Chief Executive Officer of the NFIU, commended PalmPay for its proactive approach to financial security and its commitment to aligning with national and international regulatory frameworks. She emphasized the importance of continuous collaboration between private sector players and government institutions in the fight against financial crimes.

PalmPay’s visit to the NFIU reflects its vision of contributing to a secure, transparent, and inclusive financial ecosystem in Nigeria. As a fintech leader, PalmPay remains steadfast in its mission to create a digital economy where trust and security drive growth and innovation.

 


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AfDB, Italian Insurance Group Sign $6bn Deal to Foster Investment in Africa

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In a bid to provide credit protection to foster investment in Africa under the “Mattei Plan”, SACE, an Italian insurance-financial group and the African Development Bank Group (AfDB) have signed a $6bn deal.

The collaboration between SACE and AfDB is to sustain the development of initiatives with Africa’s public and private sectors, with additional opportunities for Italian businesses in education, agribusiness, healthcare, energy, water and infrastructure.

The signing took place during the African Investment Forum (AIF) 2024 Market Days currently underway in Rabat, Morocco. The AIF is a platform that helps develop bankable projects, secures funding, and facilitates deal closures. Its goal is to mobilize capital for key sectors, supporting the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals and Africa’s development agendas.

The collaboration agreement was signed by Michal Ron, chief international business officer of SACE responsible for the Overseas Network, and Hassatou N’Sele, AfDB’s vice president for finance and chief financial officer.

“The $6 billion Mattei plan to bolster economic links and create an energy hub for Europe, while curbing African emigration to Europe, was unveiled by Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni in February this year. The Italian Government and the African Development Bank Group have planned a series of joint initiatives to support the implementation of the Mattei Plan.”

This initiative establishes synergies between SACE’s products, such as the Push Strategy as an untied export credit product, traditional export credit insurance, and the financial products offered by the African Development Bank Group.

It will support the financing of high-impact projects in Africa while jointly generating opportunities for business matching between African and Italian companies.

The initiative brings together SACE’s products, including untied export credits, traditional export credit insurance, and financial solutions from the AfDB. The collaboration aims to finance high-impact projects in Africa while fostering business partnerships between African and Italian companies.

“Africa represents a market of great potential for our companies, and our collaboration under the “Mattei Plan” will strengthen their positioning in key sectors for the continent’s development, in line with the purpose of the Mattei Plan,” said Ron.

“In particular, we are already identifying new business opportunities where SACE can make a difference thanks to the Push Strategy, a financial instrument that, through guarantees, connects African buyers with Italian SMEs, involving them in strategic projects related to infrastructure, agribusiness, healthcare, energy, and education: priority sectors where Made in Italy, with SACE’s support, can offer a significant contribution.”

The collaboration also looks to expand commercial relations between Italy and Africa, encouraging the business of Italian companies interested in operating on the continent in priority sectors of the Mattei Plan: education and training, agriculture/agro-industry, healthcare, energy, water, infrastructure, including digital economy infrastructure.

 


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