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What Does Sub-Zero Oil Mean for Nigeria’s Economic Outlook?

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By Lukman Otunuga, Senior Research Analyst at FXTM,

 

April 20, 2020 will go down in the history books as the day when WTI crude futures expiring in May plunged more than 300 percent, falling as low as minus $40.32 per barrel amid COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns.

Utter chaos ensued after the US benchmark prices for crude Oil went sub-zero for the first time ever, driven down by the producer’s desperate attempt to pay buyers to take the commodity off their hands. This was due to fears that storage capacity could run out in May.

As Oil sank, tanker stocks soared, reflecting an intense increase in demand for crude storage space. It says a lot about the unprecedented nature of the coronavirus pandemic when we see that the fastest-growing demand trend in the Oil markets is for storage space.

Prices rose spasmodically after Iran launched its first military satellite, earning President Donald Trump’s ire. But this has not changed the fundamental themes weighing on Oil.

For Nigeria, these fundamental themes of collapsing demand and oversupply are big headwinds even if the country’s Oil is benchmarked against Brent Crude. The Nigerian state depends on Oil for 60 percent of its revenues and 90 percent of its foreign exchange. But with prices for several Oil benchmarks falling below zero, Nigeria is generating massive losses for every barrel it produces, meaning the economic outlook is growing more precarious.

It’s likely that foreign exchange reserves will stay on the firing line while the Naira remains exposed to downside shocks. A further weight on the currency and government revenues is that Nigeria spent four times as much moneysubsidising fuel versus building schools, health centres and science labs in 2019. Another inefficiency which may come back to haunt is the fact that Nigeria produces crude Oil which is sold to the US, China and Europe only to re-import natural gas at higher prices.

With the cost of producing Oil at around $15-$17 per barrel, the current volatility and weakness in Oil prices may fuel fears of a sovereign debt crisis. Nigeria’s total debt stands at around $84 billion with up to 80% of its bilateral debt owed to China. Already, Fitch Ratings has cut Nigeria’s Long-Term Foreign Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to B from B+.

Weakening outlook notwithstanding, Nigeria is making the same choice as most other world governments – to stop the spread of coronavirus. The plan is to raise as much as $6.9 billion from multilateral lenders to help fund efforts to stop the disease in its tracks.

This is the right choice, and could give the economy a better chance to recover more quickly after the pandemic ends.

Meanwhile, the short-term outlook for Oil prices remains grim due to demand destruction and slowing global growth after China experienced an economic contraction in Q1 on top of a lack of storage space.

Given that Oil sector weakness is set to remain a dominant theme in the short-to-near term, Nigeria must act fast and break away from the chains of Oil reliance to other sustainable sources of growth. Diversification is the lifesaving elixir to Nigeria’s ailments but the benefits will not happen overnight.

Digitalisation has become a hot trend in many countries as populations and governments seek to reduce human contact but increase human connection. In the same vein, the government’s ‘Change’ agenda has never been more important than it is now. Technology and innovation may be the focus of increased investment as other economic sectors come to a standstill under lockdowns.

To sum up the new reality, Nigeria has displayed resilience to external and domestic risks in the recent past but the coronavirus pandemic and collapsing Oil prices could present one of the biggest economic tests in its history. Will Nigeria be able to weather the storm, evolve and rise from the ashes like a phoenix or will Africa’s largest economy face the same fate as Venezuela and Zimbabwe?

My sincere hope is that the economy will adapt quickly, resulting in a faster-than-expected comeback. 

 


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Ugo Onwuaso is an ICT enthusiast. He believes technology should be used for general good. He holds a Master of Public Administration (MPA) degree from the Lagos state University. Dear Reader, Your support matters. But we believe that technology makes life more exciting and helps improve the lives of people around Nigeria and indeed the world. That is why, we have devoted our energy to independent reportage of technology and finance and how they affect lives. Our incisive and analytical view of how technology news affects the daily life help individuals and organizations make up their minds. Quality journalism costs money. Today, we're asking that you support us to do more. Kindly support our effort to deliver technology and finance journalism to everyone in the world. Donate as little as N1,000. Bank transfers can be made to: UBA Plc 1017156876 Communication Week Media Ltd

E-Financial

Lawyers Sue CBN over One-Time BVN Phone Number Change

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Incorporated Trustees of the Data Privacy Lawyers Association (DPLA), a group of legal experts and data privacy advocates and Etisang Solomon have filed a fundamental rights enforcement suit at the Federal High Court, Kaduna Judicial Division, against the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

Lawyers Sue CBN over One-Time BVN Phone Number Change

The suit, officially stamped by the court on April 8, 2026, seeks to nullify a CBN circular that restricts bank customers to a single lifetime amendment of phone numbers linked to their Bank Verification Numbers (BVN).

The circular titled “Addendum to the Revised Regulatory Framework for Bank Verification Number (BVN) Operations and Watchlist for the Nigerian Banking Industry,” was issued by the apex bank on March 12, 2026.

According to the provisions of clause (c) in that document, any amendment to phone numbers linked to a BVN shall be allowed only once, with the new provisions set to take effect from May 1, 2026.

Reacting to the CBN directive, legal experts and data privacy advocates argue that this timeline and the restriction itself violate multiple provisions of the 1999 constitution and the Nigeria Data Protection Act (NDPA).

They are seeking nine reliefs from the court, including declarations that the circular violates section 37 of the constitution regarding the right to privacy, Section 24(1)(e) and 34(1)(c) of the NDPA, along with orders nullifying the impugned clause, a perpetual injunction restraining the CBN from enforcing it, and a mandamus directing the CBN to review and amend the circular.

In an affidavit sworn on behalf of the applicants, Christopher Yange highlighted the practical dangers of the policy, noting that telecommunications providers frequently recycle, deactivate, or reassign numbers that have been lost or stolen.

He cited a report from the Foundation for Investigative Journalism (FIJ) to demonstrate that phone numbers are not static assets.

Furthermore, the legal experts and data privacy advocates also contend that if a customer’s number is compromised after their single permitted update, they would be permanently barred from correcting their financial records, leaving sensitive data such as transaction alerts and One-Time Passwords (OTPs) vulnerable to interception by third parties.

Olumide Babalola, Emmanuel Okpara, and Frank Ijege of Olumide Babalola LP, applicants’ counsel, in a detailed written address spanning over 12 pages, framed the case around three core legal issues.

They argued on the first issue that a phone number associated with a BVN transcends basic administrative data, serving instead as a vital conduit for financial security, including transaction notifications, OTPs, and authentication protocols.

To bolster this claim, they pointed to several legal precedents.

Among these was the 2021 Court of Appeal ruling in Digital Rights Lawyers Initiative v National Identity Management Commission (NIMC), which affirmed that constitutional privacy rights encompass the safeguarding of personal data.

Additionally, they referenced the 2025 decision in Omotayo versus Airtel Networks, where the Court of Appeal reiterated that the privacy of telecommunications and call records is protected under the constitution.

On the second issue,they  argued that by permitting only a single update, the CBN essentially grants itself a permanent power of veto over a citizen’s right to correct their data, a move that directly contradicts the clear language of the law.

To support this claim, they referenced the 2024 High Court of Lagos ruling in Rebecca Temitope Bonje versus Guaranty Trust Bank Plc, which upheld the legal requirement for data precision and the right to rectification as mandated by the NDPA.

Concerning the third legal point, the applicants argued that the single-amendment restriction serves as a rigid, all-encompassing mandate.

They noted that it fails to consider valid circumstances like the loss or physical damage of a SIM card, switching service providers, the recycling of phone numbers, or moving to a new line for personal safety.

The legal team maintained that the apex bank could achieve its anti-fraud objectives through less restrictive measures, such as advanced identity checks, multi-factor authentication, or short-term account freezes for security verification, without compromising the fundamental rights of bank customers.

The affidavit further claims the CBN’s directive lacks good faith, citing a lack of public evidence or regulatory impact assessments.

It also highlights a failure to consult stakeholders across the banking, telecom, and data protection sectors, the absence of a structured appeal process for device loss or errors, and a general lack of alignment with the NDPA.

The lawsuit, pursues several key reliefs: a declaration that the circular is unconstitutional and breaches the NDPA; the nullification of clause (c) of the addendum; and a perpetual injunction against the phone number amendment limit.

Furthermore, it seeks a mandamus to compel the CBN to revise the circular in line with constitutional and data accuracy standards, alongside an order for the bank to implement a flexible and verifiable update framework.

 


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E-Financial

Finance Minister Did not Admit Errors in New Tax Laws – PFPTRC

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Presidential Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee (PFPTRC) has dismissed reports claiming that Taiwo Oyedele, minister of State for Finance, admitted errors in Nigeria’s new tax laws.

Finance Minister Did not Admit Errors in New Tax Laws – PFPTRC

Taiwo Oyedele, minister of State for Finance,

In a statement posted on Sunday via Oyedele’s X handle, the committee described the reports as “misleading” and a misrepresentation of the minister’s comments.

“Our attention has been drawn to misleading media reports claiming that the Honourable Minister of State for Finance, Mr. Taiwo Oyedele has ‘finally admitted errors in the new tax laws.’

“These publications misrepresent the Minister’s statements, falsely alleging that he urged Nigerians to await the outcome of a ‘legislative probe’, a process that has long been concluded and the gazetted copies certified by the National Assembly published since early January 2026,” the statement said.

It warned that such narratives could distort public understanding of the reforms.

The committee said the minister, while speaking at a fireside chat during the Nigerian Bar Association Section on Legal Practice conference in Lagos, highlighted early gains from the tax reforms.

According to the statement, these include an increase in the number of informal businesses seeking registration with the Corporate Affairs Commission, as well as a rise in the number of registered taxpayers from about 10 million to over 100 million nationwide.

It attributed the outcomes to provisions in the new tax laws, including exemptions for small companies and low-income earners, as well as tax relief on essential goods and services.

“These impressive results stem from the robust design and progressive nature of the new laws,” the committee said, listing measures such as exemptions on food, education, healthcare, transportation and rent, as well as the introduction of a Tax Ombud to protect taxpayers’ rights.

The committee noted that Oyedele also acknowledged that no law is perfect and emphasised the need for continuous stakeholder engagement to address any gaps through future amendments.

“He, however, emphasized that no law is perfect. Therefore, ongoing stakeholder engagement is essential to identify and address any errors or gaps for appropriate legislative updates through Finance Bills as part of a continuous improvement process,” the statement said.

It urged the public to disregard what it described as sensational reports and rely on official sources for accurate information.

“We urge members of the public to disregard sensational headlines and twisted narratives and rely exclusively on official sources and credible media organisations for accurate information regarding the tax reform and other government policies,” the committee added.

 

 


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Quest Merchant Bank Unveils New Brand Identity, Signalling Next Phase of Strategic Growth

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Quest Merchant Bank Limited has unveiled its new brand identity, marking a significant step in the Bank’s ongoing evolution following its recent name change.

The refreshed identity reflects the Bank’s strategic direction as it deepens its role as a trusted partner to institutions and investors, providing insight-driven financial solutions and a disciplined approach to supporting long-term value creation.

With a strong legacy of execution and a deep understanding of key sectors, the Bank continues to differentiate itself through measured decision-making, strong risk management, and the ability to navigate increasingly complex market environments. The new identity brings these qualities into sharper focus, while signalling a renewed emphasis on growth, innovation, and relevance in a changing financial landscape.

Quest Merchant Bank remains focused on supporting clients across their growth journey, helping to unlock opportunities, structure transactions effectively, and provide the clarity required to make confident financial decisions in dynamic conditions.

Commenting on the development, the Ag. Managing Director/CEO, Afolabi Olorode, stated: “Our new brand identity represents an important step in our journey as Quest Merchant Bank. It reflects both who we are and where we are headed, an institution grounded in experience yet firmly focused on the future. As we continue to evolve, our priority remains to provide our clients with the clarity, confidence, and strategic support they need to achieve their long-term objectives.”

The refreshed identity will be progressively reflected across the Bank’s touchpoints, aligning its visual presence with its strategic ambition and ongoing investments in innovation, digital transformation, and service delivery.

Quest Merchant Bank remains focused on reinforcing its position as a leading merchant bank, trusted by institutions and investors to unlock value and deliver sustainable financial outcomes.


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