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What Does Sub-Zero Oil Mean for Nigeria’s Economic Outlook?

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By Lukman Otunuga, Senior Research Analyst at FXTM,

 

April 20, 2020 will go down in the history books as the day when WTI crude futures expiring in May plunged more than 300 percent, falling as low as minus $40.32 per barrel amid COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns.

Utter chaos ensued after the US benchmark prices for crude Oil went sub-zero for the first time ever, driven down by the producer’s desperate attempt to pay buyers to take the commodity off their hands. This was due to fears that storage capacity could run out in May.

As Oil sank, tanker stocks soared, reflecting an intense increase in demand for crude storage space. It says a lot about the unprecedented nature of the coronavirus pandemic when we see that the fastest-growing demand trend in the Oil markets is for storage space.

Prices rose spasmodically after Iran launched its first military satellite, earning President Donald Trump’s ire. But this has not changed the fundamental themes weighing on Oil.

For Nigeria, these fundamental themes of collapsing demand and oversupply are big headwinds even if the country’s Oil is benchmarked against Brent Crude. The Nigerian state depends on Oil for 60 percent of its revenues and 90 percent of its foreign exchange. But with prices for several Oil benchmarks falling below zero, Nigeria is generating massive losses for every barrel it produces, meaning the economic outlook is growing more precarious.

It’s likely that foreign exchange reserves will stay on the firing line while the Naira remains exposed to downside shocks. A further weight on the currency and government revenues is that Nigeria spent four times as much moneysubsidising fuel versus building schools, health centres and science labs in 2019. Another inefficiency which may come back to haunt is the fact that Nigeria produces crude Oil which is sold to the US, China and Europe only to re-import natural gas at higher prices.

With the cost of producing Oil at around $15-$17 per barrel, the current volatility and weakness in Oil prices may fuel fears of a sovereign debt crisis. Nigeria’s total debt stands at around $84 billion with up to 80% of its bilateral debt owed to China. Already, Fitch Ratings has cut Nigeria’s Long-Term Foreign Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to B from B+.

Weakening outlook notwithstanding, Nigeria is making the same choice as most other world governments – to stop the spread of coronavirus. The plan is to raise as much as $6.9 billion from multilateral lenders to help fund efforts to stop the disease in its tracks.

This is the right choice, and could give the economy a better chance to recover more quickly after the pandemic ends.

Meanwhile, the short-term outlook for Oil prices remains grim due to demand destruction and slowing global growth after China experienced an economic contraction in Q1 on top of a lack of storage space.

Given that Oil sector weakness is set to remain a dominant theme in the short-to-near term, Nigeria must act fast and break away from the chains of Oil reliance to other sustainable sources of growth. Diversification is the lifesaving elixir to Nigeria’s ailments but the benefits will not happen overnight.

Digitalisation has become a hot trend in many countries as populations and governments seek to reduce human contact but increase human connection. In the same vein, the government’s ‘Change’ agenda has never been more important than it is now. Technology and innovation may be the focus of increased investment as other economic sectors come to a standstill under lockdowns.

To sum up the new reality, Nigeria has displayed resilience to external and domestic risks in the recent past but the coronavirus pandemic and collapsing Oil prices could present one of the biggest economic tests in its history. Will Nigeria be able to weather the storm, evolve and rise from the ashes like a phoenix or will Africa’s largest economy face the same fate as Venezuela and Zimbabwe?

My sincere hope is that the economy will adapt quickly, resulting in a faster-than-expected comeback. 

 


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Ugo Onwuaso is an ICT enthusiast. He believes technology should be used for general good. He holds a Master of Public Administration (MPA) degree from the Lagos state University. Dear Reader, Your support matters. But we believe that technology makes life more exciting and helps improve the lives of people around Nigeria and indeed the world. That is why, we have devoted our energy to independent reportage of technology and finance and how they affect lives. Our incisive and analytical view of how technology news affects the daily life help individuals and organizations make up their minds. Quality journalism costs money. Today, we're asking that you support us to do more. Kindly support our effort to deliver technology and finance journalism to everyone in the world. Donate as little as N1,000. Bank transfers can be made to: UBA Plc 1017156876 Communication Week Media Ltd

E-Financial

Polaris Bank Targets Youth with Financial Literacy Drive

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As conversations around money become more complex in a fast-evolving digital world, the need to Building Financially Smart Future and equip young people with the right financial knowledge, has never been more urgent.

Polaris Bank Targets Youth with Financial Literacy Drive

Polaris Bank

From spending habits to saving culture, digital transactions, and entrepreneurial thinking, financial literacy is increasingly becoming a life skill, not just a nice-to-have.

It is against this backdrop that Polaris Bank is participating in this year’s Global Money Week (GMW), a global financial awareness campaign which kicked off from Tuesday, April 7 through Thursday, April 30, 2026.

Global Money Week is an annual initiative led by Child and Youth Finance International in collaboration with key stakeholders, including financial service providers and government institutions, to inspire children and young people to learn about money management, livelihoods, and entrepreneurship.

During the 2025 edition Polaris Bank reached and impacted directly 3,372 students, across 35 secondary schools in 36 states across Nigeria.

With the 2026 theme, “Smart Money Talks,” this year’s campaign shines a spotlight on the importance of making informed financial decisions in an increasingly digital environment. It also reinforces the value of critical thinking, emotional intelligence, and sound financial judgement in helping young people navigate today’s financial realities.

For Polaris Bank, participation in Global Money Week goes beyond fulfilling a statutory obligation. It reflects the Bank’s broader commitment to advancing financial literacy, promoting inclusion, and empowering the next generation with practical knowledge that can shape better financial behaviour and long-term economic wellbeing.

In line with the directive of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) through the Financial Literacy Secretariat, Polaris Bank will conduct Financial Literacy Sessions in schools across states where it maintains branch presence. These sessions will provide students and young adults with useful insights into key areas such as; saving, budgeting, responsible use of financial products, digital financial services, and entrepreneurship.

The initiative also presents an important opportunity for the Bank to engage directly with young people at a formative stage in their lives, helping them build confidence in money matters and make more informed choices as they grow into financially active adults.

At a time when financial decisions are increasingly shaped by technology, peer influence, and instant access to digital tools, Polaris Bank believes that early education is critical to helping young people distinguish between impulse and intention, trend and truth, convenience and responsibility.

By taking financial literacy conversations into schools, the Bank is not only supporting a national mandate but also contributing to the development of a generation that is better informed, more financially aware, and more capable of making smart choices for the future.

Polaris Bank remains committed to initiatives that create meaningful impact, strengthen communities, and empower individuals through knowledge-driven engagement.


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E-Financial

See Key Changes in BVN Rule from May 1 by CBN

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is implementing stricter Bank Verification Number (BVN) regulations, including limiting phone number changes to only once in a lifetime.

See Key Changes in BVN Rule from May 1 by CBN

This will take effect from May 1.

Also, mobile apps will be restricted to one device, a 24-hour temporary watch-list for suspicious transactions will be enforced, and enrollment is restricted to individuals aged 18 and above.

Other key changes are:

One Device Policy: Mobile banking apps will be restricted to one device, with automatic logout when accessing another device.

Fraud Watchlist: BVNs linked to suspicious activity will be placed on a 24-hour, temporary, or permanent blacklist, temporarily freezing accounts.

Age Restriction: Enrollment for BVN is now restricted to individuals aged 18 and above.

Data Correction: Changes to BVN profile details (Name, DOB) are also heavily restricted, allowing only one-time corrections to data.


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Paga Group Rejigs Leadership as Oviosu, Founder Becomes Group CEO

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Paga Group has announced a major leadership restructuring, marking 17 years of operation and signalling a strategic shift toward deeper financial infrastructure development, emerging technologies, and expansion across Africa.

Paga Group Rejigs Leadership as Oviosu, Founder Becomes Group CEO

Tayo Oviosu, founder (front) and Ope Oyinloye, Group COO and CEO of Paga Nigeria

With the restructuring, Tayo Oviosu, founder, is now the Group CEO, while Ope Oyinloye has been appointed Group COO and CEO of Paga Nigeria, in an acting capacity, pending regulatory approval from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

Oviosu will also serve as executive chairman of the Group Board and non-executive chairman of Paga Nigeria.

He will be leading Paga Labs, driving geographic expansion, and overseeing fundraising efforts.

The fintech company said the changes represent a transition from its foundational phase into a new growth chapter, known as ‘Act 2’, focused on connecting Africans to global financial systems, scaling innovation, and entering new markets.

To support this transition, the company announced key leadership changes. advertisement

Jay Alabraba, co-founder, has been appointed group director of Special Projects, where he will initially lead the company’s expansion into lending and support new market entry initiatives.

Speaking on the transition, Oviosu said the company’s mission remains unchanged but its approach continues to evolve.

“Act 1 proved that we could build a profitable, high-growth infrastructure business that the world’s leading companies trust. Act 2 is about taking that infrastructure to its full potential—connecting Africans to global financial rails, moving into new markets, and leading the next wave of financial technology,” he said.

Oyinloye added that his focus will be on sustaining operational excellence while scaling the company’s next phase of growth.

With the new structure in place, Paga is positioning itself to play a more significant role in shaping the future of financial services across Africa, particularly as digital payments, blockchain technologies, and AI-driven solutions gain traction across the continent.

Paga has since evolved into a full-stack financial services infrastructure provider. Its offerings now span enterprise solutions through Paga Engine, consumer services via the Paga app, and merchant tools under Doroki.

The company’s first phase delivered significant growth. Between 2021 and 2025, total transaction value processed increased 17-fold to $11 billion across 169 million transactions in 2025 alone, with more than $1.5 billion processed monthly.

Net revenues grew five times within the same period, underscoring the scalability of its model.

Paga also expanded its enterprise footprint, with over 265 clients which include global firms such as PayPal, Meta, Amazon, LemFi, Tencent, Pesa, and Verto building on its infrastructure.

The company was further recognised by the Financial Times and Statista as one of Africa’s fastest-growing companies for three consecutive years from 2023 to 2025.

As part of its new strategic direction, Paga outlined three priorities which are strengthening its financial infrastructure to connect local and global payment systems; advancing emerging technologies such as stablecoins, cryptocurrency, and artificial intelligence through its innovation arm, Paga Labs; and expanding into new African markets.


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