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What Does the Coronavirus Mean for Oil and the Nigerian Economy?

By Lukman Otunuga, Senior Research Analyst at FXTM,
It is hard to believe that Oil prices have depreciated over 17% since the start of 2020.
The coronavirus outbreak in China triggered shockwaves across the globe and rekindled fears over slowing global growth. As of today, Oil remains one of the biggest casualties of the virus outbreak based on the fact that China is the world’s largest energy consumer. Severely depressed Oil prices will certainly pose negative consequences for emerging market crude exporters like Nigeria.
The country remains in the process of diversifying away from the chains of oil reliance but still remains dependent on Oil in the short term to medium term. A sizeable chunk of Nigeria’s export earnings and government revenues are sourced from Oil sales. So essentially, lower oil prices could throw a proverbial wrench in the works for Nigeria’s economy and threaten its fragile recovery.
It does not end here. Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves decreased to $38.1 billion in January from $38.6 billion in December. Reserves risk falling lower as Oil depreciates which could complicate the Central Bank of Nigeria’ (CBN) efforts to defend the Naira against domestic and external risks. A depreciating Naira has the potential to fuel inflationary pressures which ultimately places the CBN in a tricky position – to cut interest rates or utilize other tools in the monetary policy arsenal.
Most importantly, falling Oil prices may question the government’s ability to implement the 2020 budget which has set the benchmark for Oil at $57 with revenue targets of N2.64 trillion.
Although Oil prices have increased by over 2.5% today following reports of an effective treatment for coronavirus, the commodity is not out of the woods yet. It is worth keeping in mind that concerns over the coronavirus outbreak remain a major market theme. With uncertainty still in the air as confirmed virus cases and death toll rise, risk aversion could make an unwelcome return – ultimately hitting Oil prices and emerging market energy producers.
News
Anambra Cuts Monday Pay to Kill Sit-at-Home

Anambra State will implement pro-rata salary payments for civil servants starting February 2026, targeting chronic Monday absenteeism from the long-running sit-at-home order, Information Commissioner Dr. Law Mefor announced Saturday.

Soludo
Speaking at an Awka briefing after the Executive Council’s end-of-tenure retreat, Mefor said improved security and transport have eliminated excuses for the four-year disruption, which cost the state trillions in lost revenue. “Workers enjoyed full pay despite staying away; now, no work means no pay for that day, calculated over 24 working days,” he stated.
Compliance measures include mandatory Monday clock-in forms, with markets urged to reopen fully amid bolstered security. This builds on a January 22 executive order docking 20% pay from teachers absent on Mondays.
Mefor warned that lost Mondays cripple revenue collection and productivity, rejecting alternatives like Saturday shifts as capitulation to agitators.
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Stakeholders Demand Stronger Governance and Infrastructure to Drive Tech Adoption @ Lagos AI Summit

As AI adoption accelerates across Nigeria, leaders at the “AI in Action Now” conference 2026 have called for a balance between rapid innovation and strict regulatory governance. The event, held at the Lagos Oriental Hotel, highlighted both the doggedness of Nigerian builders and the risks of unregulated data usage.

Dotun Adeoye, Co-Founder of AI Nigeria, raised alarms over “Shadow AI”, a trend where employees upload sensitive official documents to public AI platforms. He praised the Nigerian Data Protection Commission (NDPC) for its recent aggressive stance, including multi-million-dollar fines against major banks and social media brands.
“Innovation without governance is dangerous. The regulator now has the job of educating players. We are working in partnership with them to ensure players don’t just get fined, but actually understand how to protect data locally rather than storing it abroad, ” Adeoye noted.
Addressing issues of lack of infrastructure to carry AI adoption, Conference Convener Debola Ibiyode admitted that while Nigeria lacks the traditional foundation for AI adoption, the tech community cannot afford to wait.

“The simple answer is we don’t have the infrastructure, but Nigeria has never really had infrastructure to drive anything, and we still thrive, ” Iboyode said, encouraging students and builders to look beyond current limitations. “Once we start to build based on what we have now, it will encourage those who need to provide the infrastructure to do their part. The world will not wait for us,” she insisted.
To bridge this gap, she highlighted the AI Foundry Africa, an incubator designed to mentor ideas into market-ready products.
Meanwhile, speaking to journalists on the sidelines, Biodun Ogunleye, the Lagos State Commissioner of Energy and Mineral Resources, echoed the sentiment that the government’s role is to facilitate the right environment through partnership. He emphasized that data generated from interactions with the government must have long-term value.
“We must ensure that in all facets from production to interaction with government, the tools required to ensure data has value are appreciated,” Ogunleye stated.
He concluded that through private-sector collaboration, the government can focus on its primary functions while leveraging AI to ensure the nation aspires for the future.
News
35 Million Nigerians Face Acute Hunger in 2026, UN Warns

About 35 million Nigerians face acute hunger risks in 2026, including three million children battling severe malnutrition, the United Nations has warned, attributing the crisis to collapsing global aid budgets and escalating violence in the northeast.

UN Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator Mohamed Malick Fall disclosed this on Thursday during the launch of the 2026 humanitarian plan in Abuja, noting that the traditional foreign-led aid model proves unsustainable amid Nigeria’s escalating needs.
He highlighted dire conditions in Borno, Adamawa and Yobe states, where over 4,000 people perished in the first eight months of 2025 from surging suicide bombings and attacks—equalling the entire previous year’s toll.
The UN now targets $516 million to deliver lifesaving aid to 2.5 million people this year, a sharp drop from 3.6 million in 2025 and half of prior levels, forcing prioritisation of only the most critical interventions.
Fall stressed, “These are not statistics. These numbers represent lives, futures and Nigerians,” as shortfalls last year compelled the World Food Programme to halt support for over 300,000 children after resources dried up in December.
Yet, Fall acknowledged Nigeria’s increasing national ownership, including local funding for lean-season food assistance and proactive flood early-warning systems, signalling a shift toward self-reliant crisis response.
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