E-Financial
World Bank Sees Sub-Sahara Africa’s 1st Recession in 25 Years
World Bank Group says Coronavirus (COVID-19), is taking Sub-Saharan Africa towards its first recession in 25 Years.
The bank stated this in a statement released on Thursday.
It explained that growth in Sub-Saharan Africa had been significantly impacted by the COVID-19 outbreak, and was predicted to fall sharply from 2.4 per cent in 2019 to -2.1 to -5.1 per cent in 2020.
The bank stated that it based its forecast on the latest Africa’s Pulse, the World Bank’s twice-yearly economic update for the region.
The statement quoted Hafez Ghanem, World Bank Vice President for Africa as saying “the COVID-19 pandemic is testing the limits of societies and economies across the world, and African countries are likely to be hit particularly hard.
“We are rallying all possible resources to help countries meet people’s immediate health and survival needs, while also safeguarding livelihoods and jobs in the longer term.
“This includes calling for a standstill on official bilateral debt service payments, which would free up funds for strengthening health systems to deal with COVID- 19 and save lives.
“Social safety nets to save livelihoods and help workers who lose jobs, support to small and medium enterprises, and food security.”
According to Ghanem, the Pulse authors recommend that African policymakers should focus on saving lives and protecting livelihoods by strengthening the health systems and taking quick actions to minimise disruptions in food supply chains.
The bank noted that the authors also recommended implementing social protection programmes, including cash transfers, food distribution and fee waivers, to support citizens, especially those working in the informal sector.
The analysis shows that COVID-19 will cost the region between 37 billion dollars and 79 billion dollars in output losses for 2020 due to a combination of effects.
“They include trade and value chain disruption, which impacts commodity exporters and countries with strong value chain participation; reduced foreign financial flows from remittances, tourism and foreign direct investment,” it stated.
It further listed others as foreign aid, combined with capital flight; and through direct impacts on health systems, and disruptions caused by containment measures and the public response.
“While most countries in the region have been affected in different degrees by the pandemic, real gross domestic product growth is projected to fall sharply, particularly in the region’s three largest economies like Nigeria, Angola, and South Africa, as a result of persistently weak growth and investment.
“In general, oil exporting-countries will also be hard-hit; while growth is also expected to weaken substantially in the two fastest growing areas, the West African Economic and Monetary Union and the East African Community, due to weak external demand, disruptions to supply chains and domestic production.
“The region’s tourism sector is expected to contract sharply due to severe disruption to travel.
“The COVID-19 crisis also has the potential to spark a food security crisis in Africa, with agricultural production potentially contracting between 2.6 per cent in an optimistic scenario, and up to seven per cent if there are trade blockages.
“Food imports would decline substantially as much as 25 per cent, or as little as 13 per cent due to a combination of higher transaction costs and reduced domestic demand” the bank explained.
Renaissance Capital Africa (Rencap) has named Zenith Bank Plc its top conviction pick among Nigerian banks, ahead of GTCO and AccessCorp, in a fresh research report highlighting the lender’s robust balance sheet and dividend potential despite sector headwinds.
Zenith Bank
The comprehensive review of the Nigerian banking industry notes that Zenith’s current market valuation lags its improving fundamentals, even as the NGX Banking Index posts strong gains recently.
Rencap upgraded Zenith from HOLD to BUY, lifting its target price by 96 per cent based on a lower risk-free rate from falling government bond yields, refined beta estimates, and expectations of cleaner assets post-forybearance resolutions.
Balance Sheet Strength Drives Outlook
Analysts project challenges to earnings growth from anticipated Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) rate cuts but foresee higher dividend payouts from resolved forbearance and single obligor loan (SOL) exposures alongside rising cash profits.
“Although we expect banks to face challenges in growing earnings… the balance sheet clean-up… will support higher dividend payouts relative to prior years,” the report states, ranking Zenith first, followed by GTCO and AccessCorp.
Key positives include loan write-offs that bolstered asset quality, enabling sustainable growth amid financial system reforms.
Dividend Recovery in Focus
Sector profitability from 2023-2024 was inflated by unrealised foreign exchange gains, which regulations barred from cash dividends, capping payouts despite headline profits.
Zenith historically led payout ratios in 2021-2022 via strong cash generation and capital discipline; Rencap expects a rebound as pressures ease, attracting income-focused investors.
Tier-1 Leadership Reinforced
Zenith Bank recently topped Nigeria’s tier-1 capital rankings for the 16th straight year, per The Banker magazine (Financial Times), affirming its resilience and positioning for long-term value creation.
CBN
- Access Bank Plc
- Fidelity Bank Plc
- First Bank of Nigeria Ltd
- Guaranty Trust Bank (GTBank)
- United Bank for Africa (UBA)
- Zenith Bank Plc
- FCMB (First City Monument Bank) – currently pushing to raise additional capital to secure its international licence.
- Wema Bank
- Standard Chartered Bank (Nigeria)
- Citibank Nigeria
- Stanbic IBTC Bank
- Sterling Bank
- Globus Bank
- Premium Trust Bank
The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has revised the minimum capital applicable to all categories of regulated capital market entities after 10 years.
The minimum capital review, according to the SEC, is informed by the need to strengthen market resilience, enhance investor protection, align capital adequacy with the evolving risk profile of market activities, and ensure that regulated entities possess sufficient financial capacity to discharge their obligations in a sustainable manner.
“The revised Minimum Capital framework seeks to: enhance the financial soundness and operational resilience of market operators; align capital requirements with the scope, complexity, and risk exposure of regulated activities; promote market stability and systemic risk mitigation; and support innovation and orderly development of new market segments, including digital assets and commodities markets,” SEC said in a January 16 circular to market operators.
The SEC circular was sent to all entities regulated by the Commission, including but not limited to core and non-core capital market operators; market infrastructure institutions; capital market consultants; financial technology (FinTech) operators; Virtual Asset Service Providers (VASPs); and Commodity market intermediaries.
All affected entities are required to comply with the revised Minimum Capital Requirements on or before June 30, 2027, the circular said.
“Entities that fail to meet the prescribed requirements within the stipulated timeline shall be subject to appropriate regulatory sanctions, including suspension or withdrawal of registration, as may be determined by the Commission,” SEC said.
Tier-1 Portfolio Managers (Full Scope) involved in the management of Collective Investment Schemes (CIS) and Alternative Investment Funds (Private Equity, Venture Capital, Infrastructure Funds etc) above N20 billion Net Asset Value (NAV), or discretionary and Non-Discretionary Private Portfolio Management Services above N20 billion Assets under Management (AuM), or exposure to foreign instruments up to 40 percent of the NAV are now required to have a minimum capital of N5 billion as against N150 million.
“Any Fund and Portfolio Manager with NAV/AuM of more than N100billion should have a minimum of 10 percent of the NAV/AuM as capital,” SEC added.
For the Tier-2 fund/portfolio managers (Limited Scope) who are in the business of management of Collective Investment Schemes with limited pooled fund creation of not more than 10 times the required capital (N20 billion) on Net Asset Value (NAV), or discretionary and non-discretionary private portfolio management services of not more than N20 billion, or those exposure to foreign instruments of not more than 20 percent of the NAV, now require N2 billion as minimum capital as against low of N150 million.
Likewise, broker-dealers whose services include: client execution, proprietary trading, margin/securities lending and advisory services no longer require N300 million minimum capital to operate but N2 billion.
The SEC said the minimum capital review from 2015 low is in line with its mandate under the Investments and Securities Act 2025 to regulate and develop the Nigerian capital market.
Also, Tier 1 issuing houses who do non-interest finance services, advisory & arrangement services but no underwriting now require N2 billion as against N200 million; while Tier 2 –issuing houses with underwriting and offers a ‘one-stop-shop’ for issuers, provides underwriting services, and renders advisory and product development services require N7 billion minimum capital for this business as against N200 million.
Also, the minimum capital requirement for brokers (client execution only) has been jacked up from N200 million to N600 million, while that of dealers (proprietary trading only) has been moved from N100 million to N1 billion.
Broker-Dealers’ (client execution, proprietary trading, margin/securities lending and advisory services) has been raised from N300 million to N2 billion, while Sub-Brokers’ (Digital) from N10million to N100million; Sub-Broker (Corporate) has been increased from N10million to N50 million. Also, sub-brokers’ (Individual) now need N10 million minimum capital for the business as against N2 million while inter-dealer brokers require N2 billion as against N50 million.
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