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Domestic Markets Driving Aviation Passenger Growth- IATA

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The International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced global passenger traffic results for November 2014 showing a continuation of the healthy demand trend of recent months.

Total revenue passenger kilometers (RPKs) rose 6.0% compared to November 2013, which was ahead of the 5.7% year-over-year growth recorded in October as well as the 10-year average growth rate of 5.6%.

November capacity expanded by 5.4%, leading to a 0.5 percentage point rise in the load factor to 76.7%.

Growth was driven primarily by domestic markets which experienced a 6.9% increase in demand over the previous November (an acceleration over the 5.3% year-to-date average for domestic travel).

Chinese domestic travel (which rose 15.4% over the previous November) was the main contributor to this growth. International travel, meanwhile, experienced a slight deceleration in growth towards the end of the year.

“November demand was healthy, but the overall picture is mixed. For example, strong traffic performance within China and India has not carried over into international demand for Asia-Pacific carriers. And while lower oil prices should be positive for economic activity, softening business confidence is having a dampening effect on international travel,” said Tony Tyler, IATA’s Director General and CEO.

International Passenger Markets

November 2014 international passenger demand was up 5.4% compared to the year-ago period, which was below the 6.1% year-to-date growth trend.

Capacity rose 5.9% and the load factor dipped 0.3 percentage points to 75.1%. All regions except Africa recorded year-over-year increases in demand.

However, compared to October, most regions reported slower demand growth for November.

European carriers’ demand for international services rose 5.6% in November 2014 compared to the year-ago period in spite of the region’s economic frailties and risks.

Robust travel on low cost carriers is behind much of the growth. Capacity climbed 4.9% leading to a 0.5 percentage point rise in the load factor to 77.7%.

Asia-Pacific airlines recorded a 4.9% demand increase compared to November 2013 amid signs of a slowdown in regional production activity.

Trade volumes have remained strong, however. With capacity up 5.6%, the load factor slipped 0.5 percentage points to 74.6%.

North American airlines saw demand rise 2.0% over the 2013 period. This was an improvement over growth of 1.6% in October. November capacity rose 3.1%, causing load factor to fall 0.8 percentage points to 76.8%.

The US economy is a notable bright-spot among developed economies, and recent gains in trade volumes bode well for business-related travel.

Middle East carriers had the strongest traffic growth at 11.7%.

This was the fourth consecutive month of double-digit year-over-year growth and the region’s economies are comparatively well-placed to withstand plunging oil revenues. Capacity rose 13.9% and load factor fell 1.4 percentage points to 70.1%.

Latin American airlines experienced a 4.9% rise in demand in November. Capacity increased 5.7% and load factor fell 0.6 percentage points to 78.8%. Despite the decline, the load factor was the highest for any region.

Although major economies in the region have been weak, the strength of the US economy has supported traffic carried by the region’s airlines.

African carriers were the only ones to see a decline in demand: November traffic fell 2.5% compared to the same month in 2013.

Capacity fell 3.1%, causing load factor to rise 0.4 percentage points to 63.8%, the lowest for any region. Passenger volumes for the region’s carriers are back at late 2012 levels.

The recent weakness appears to reflect adverse economic developments in parts of the continent including Nigeria, which is highly reliant on oil revenues.

The impact on traffic owing to the Ebola outbreak is largely restricted to Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone (markets that comprise a very small proportion of overall African traffic).

Domestic Passenger Markets

Demand for domestic travel rose 6.9% in November 2014 compared to the year-ago period, an acceleration of the October increase of 5.9%.

Total domestic capacity was up 4.5% and load factor climbed 1.7 percentage points to 79.3%.

China’s domestic traffic soared 15.4% compared to November 2013, the strongest performance for any market.

In fact, two-thirds of the total increase in domestic RPKs over the last few months is attributable to gains in the Chinese domestic market.

This is occurring in spite of ongoing signs of a slowdown in the Chinese economy and industrial activity, although consumer surveys and retail sales data remain robust.

Australia’s domestic demand was virtually flat year-over year and traffic volumes have largely remained stagnant since mid-2013. The economy is struggling to rebalance away from mining investment-led growth.

The Bottom Line:

Aviation is a vital driver of the global economy. Last month IATA issued an updated outlook forecasting industry earnings of $25 billion in 2015.

While this appears large, at the global level, on revenues of $783 billion, a $25 billion profit represents a margin of just 3.2% or around $7 per passenger.

And it is spread over a highly-fragmented and hyper-competitive industry with many hundreds of players, some of whom are making sustainable returns and many of whom are struggling.

“Nonetheless, the industry is investing to improve the passenger experience.

This year we expect to see some implementation of the New Distribution Capability, giving travelers the ability to view and purchase all of an airline’s products and services wherever they shop for air travel.

And more passengers will have access to Fast Travel options such as self-boarding and self-tagging of luggage that offer convenience and time-savings and give them greater control over their journey,” said Tyler.

 


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Defending the foundations for connectivity

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By Engr. Gbenga Adebayo

In 2001, when the first GSM call was made in Nigeria how many of us would have envisaged the digital world that we live in today? The pace of growth and the rate of adoption of telecoms solutions in Nigeria has been revolutionary. It is a globally acknowledged case study that we should be proud of and a clear demonstration of what can be achieved.

Almost all of us today are reliant on the network connectivity that it has enabled in different shapes and forms. From the simple need to communicate with loved ones, to the digital platforms that enable our access to and consumption of entertainment, financial products and other critical services. Our reliance on these systems is becoming more and more acute, whether it is citizens, governments, or corporations. System downtime is increasingly disruptive and offline manual redundancies are often in the advanced stages of being phased out. The pace of this transition is not slowing down. With the core infrastructure in place, innovation is driving the exponential growth of services that ride on it. From the fully adopted social media that has changed the way we interact, to the emerging Artificial Intelligence (AI) revolution.

While this innovation is enabling exciting new possibilities, there is a tendency to focus on those opportunities, to the detriment of the core infrastructure on which it rides. It is imperative that we retain a focus on the optimisation of that infrastructure and enable continued investment in its development. We have seen how the transition from 2G, through to 3G, 4G and 5G have each enabled the development of more and more sophisticated solutions.

The continued development of core infrastructure has to be sustainable, and over the last few months we have begun to see the challenges that the operators that provide it are facing. Both MTN and Airtel have declared significant foreign exchange (FX) losses in Nigeria, and the stress is not linked to them alone. The entire ecosystem is battling with a range of challenges that must be addressed. If we fail to do so, the downstream impact on innovation will be severe. Telecoms infrastructure requires a base level of investment to maintain its current capabilities, and significant additional investment to expand and grow. It is capital intensive and that capital has to be generated through sustainable business models.

At the heart of the challenge the industry faces is the issue of rising costs. Recent financial losses are directly linked to the cost of operating towers that rely on inputs like diesel, which have increased significantly as the Naira has depreciated. The provisions large telecom companies have had to make, and the consequent losses and impact on their reserves is a red flag. It tells us that business as usual is not sustainable. If we continue as we are, then those companies will struggle to continue to invest in and maintain existing services.

But those costs are not the only challenge. General cost inflation, multiple taxation, regular and damaging vandalisation of infrastructure and the costs associated with regulatory compliance all help contribute to the high cost of operations. We cannot continue to follow a path that asks those companies to simply accept those rising costs. It is no longer sustainable, and we have reached an inflection point.

This is a critical moment for the industry. How we approach and resolve it will define the future of Nigeria’s digital economy. If you want to be able to enjoy the benefits that digitisation brings. If we want the infrastructure that enables AI and helps us drive growth, then we must take action now.

Cost-reflective tariffs, like it or not, are simply non-negotiable. We have seen the impact of price controls in other segments of the economy, like power. If providers cannot operate sustainable business models, then they stop investing. When that happens, the existing infrastructure starts to crumble. For power, a consumer can choose to take ownership of the solution by buying a generator, or a solar panel. For fuel, the government can step in as the provider of last resort and manage a subsidy regime that mitigates the impact on the population. Those options are not available in the telecoms sector. There is no self-help solution.

We fully understand and appreciate the financial stress that Nigerians are experiencing today. The cost of living is the single most significant factor in most people’s daily lives. But those people are still able to enjoy the benefits that connectivity brings, at the price they paid before these challenges became so acute. Imagine a future in which the gains of the last twenty years are reversed. Nigeria, and Nigerians simply cannot afford it. The pain that we would feel under those circumstances would be exponentially worse.

We need to find a long-term, sustainable and manageable solution to this problem. Prices will need to rise, but action needs to be taken in a measured way, through sustainable conversations and partnership with the government. It is time to address this head on.

Engr. Gbenga Adebayo is the Chairman, Association of Licensed Telecoms Operators of Nigeria (ALTON)


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LCCI Urges FG to Simplify Trade Procedures to Boost Economy

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The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) has said that the government needs to simplify and harmonize trade procedures and address bottlenecks in order to boost economic growth in the country.

President of LCCI, Mr. Gabriel Idahosa, gave the charge at a Quarterly media briefing on the State of the Economy yesterday in Lagos.

He said that the government has to create an atmosphere that promotes export growth and competitiveness, which is projected to boost export earnings, raise domestic revenue, improve citizens’ welfare, and increase business productivity.

“We recommend that reforms must include simplifying and harmonizing trade procedures as well as addressing bottlenecks such as port logistics, congestion, and transportation costs. This is expected to position the country as the commercial centre of the region and a springboard into regional value chains,” he stated.

On managing the persistent high inflation, the LCCI president said both monetary and fiscal authorities should focus on the factors driving the inflation rates by tackling the supply-side deficiencies instead of focusing too much attention on the demand-side management.

“We urge the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to continue with its foreign exchange (forex) market reforms with intense discipline, as the high exchange rate against the naira is a major driver of the skyrocketing inflation rates.”

Idahosa acknowledged the improvement in the naira exchange rate in the last few days, moving towards the level of N1000 per dollar or lower.

“CBN needs to sustain its policy and regulatory reforms in the FX market, adopt policies that would attract more FX inflow into the economy as well as build market confidence in the performance of the FX market,” he added.

 


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Dufil Takes Donation of Indomie Noodles Cartons to Vulnerable Communities in Abuja and Environ

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In line with its commitment to provide critical support to indigent members of communities around the country in the face of the ongoing economic challenges, Dufil Prima Foods Limited, makers of Indomie Instant Noodles, in partnership with Golan Helps Abuja Food Bank Initiative (GHAFBI) and Meluibe Foundation on Wednesday, April 17 distributed Indomie noodles cartons to vulnerable communities in Kuje and Kubwa Local Government Areas in Abuja.

With the goal of alleviating hunger and supporting communities across Nigeria, Indomie Instant Noodles has committed to donating a substantial quantity of noodle packs to various NGOs working tirelessly to address food insecurity.

These organizations play a crucial role in reaching remote and underserved areas, ensuring that nutritious meals reach those who need them most.

“We are deeply committed to making a positive impact in the communities where we operate,” said Olusola Olayinka Idowu OON, former Permanent Secretary, Budget and National Planning, and the CEO/Founder of GHAFBI.

“At GHAFBI, we believe that everyone deserves access to wholesome and nourishing food. Our partnership with Dufil Prima Foods to donate Indomie Noodles packs is a big step towards addressing food insecurity and supporting vulnerable communities in Abuja”, said Idowu who was also the former National Conveyor, UN Food System Dialogues in Nigeria.

Speaking in the same vein, Obialunanma Nnaobi-Ayodele, Executive Director, The Meluibe Empowerment Foundation, expressed her gratitude to Indomie Noodles for the partnership. “Our vision as an NGO is to change the world one step at a time, by providing relief and support to vulnerable communities.

This is achieved through collaborations and partnerships, one of which is what we have done with Indomie Noodles. We remain grateful for their support through this food relief initiative”, she said.

By partnering with NGOs, Indomie Instant Noodles works closely with local leaders and community heads in directly engaging with rural communities to distribute noodle packs and provide immediate relief to families facing hunger and ensuring that food assistance reaches those who are most in need, especially in hard-to-reach areas.

“We are grateful for the opportunity to collaborate with NGOs and community leaders to make a meaningful difference in the lives of people facing food insecurity”, said Temitope Ashiwaju, Group Corporate Communications and Events Manager, Dufil Prima Foods Limited. “Together, we bring hope, love and relief for all”.

The community leaders and some of the beneficiaries also expressed their immense gratitude to Indomie for the support, stressing the impact the products donated will have in alleviating hunger in their communities.

Speaking at the outreach centre, His Royal Highness, Muhammed D. Jibril, Community Leader of Gbazango Community in Kubwa Local Government Area said: “I am very grateful to Indomie Noodles for coming to our aid in these challenging times. I pray for more expansion and growth for the business and may God bless Indomie Noodles”.

Other communities who benefited from the product donations include Wunmi, Tondo, Godoji and Shazhi communities in Kuje Area Council of Abuja.

Dufil Prima Food’s donation of Indomie Noodle packs underscores its commitment to corporate social responsibility and its dedication to supporting communities in need. By providing essential food relief, Dufil Prima Foods is contributing to the well-being and resilience of vulnerable populations in Nigeria.

Indomie Instant Noodles remains dedicated to bringing joy to mealtimes and making a positive impact in communities around the world.


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