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Economy: Nigeria on a Rough Road to Recovery

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Research Analyst at FXTM, Lukman Otunuga, writes on the Nigeria’s tedious task of economic recovery.

The rising confidence in the recovery of Nigeria’s economy was dealt a heavy blow in May following reports of the nation’s first quarter GDP growth for 2017 contracting by 0.52%.

Sentiment towards the nation is likely to turn bearish in the short term as investors become defensive and reassess if economic growth will follow a negative trajectory this year.

While the current contraction is nothing to celebrate, it should be kept in mind that it remains the best performance seen in four quarters.

With many sectors of the Nigerian economy already roaring back to life this year, bullish impacts are likely to be seen in the second and third quarter of 2017.

Investors must keep in mind that Nigeria has been exposed to downside shocks since the sharp depreciation of oil with rising inflation, tepid economic growth, and a foreign exchange dilemma all adding to the pressure.

External risks such as oil price volatility and a potential U.S interest rate increase remain causes for concern in the short term that could create fresh tremors. Despite all the difficulties laid-out, the longer-term outlook for Nigeria remains bright, especially when considering how inflation is stabilizing and non-oil sectors such as manufacturing, agriculture and transportation are building momentum.

Consumer prices in Nigeria declined for the third consecutive month in April at 17.25%, which is very encouraging.

The visible display of price stability will most likely boost investor confidence towards the nation further and ultimately support growth. With April’s solid Purchasing Manager Index of 58.9 also highlighting a strong rebound in business activity as the nation stabilizes, the long-term bullish sentiment should remain supported.

The Nigerian parliament has already approved the government’s seven trillion budget to revive the economy, which may prove to break the nation away from recent recessionary chains.

Focusing on the foreign exchange outlook, the Central Bank of Nigeria has repeatedly intervened this year with a recent injection of $225 million easing some pressure on the Naira.

While the injection of cash may continue to support the Naira on the parallel markets, questions should be asked over its sustain ability. With the nation’s foreign exchange reserves dropping to $30.78 billion as the CBN defends the local currency, the central bank must look to alternative methods to stabilize prices.

For Nigeria to truly evolve and transition into a heavyweight in the global arena, the multiple exchanges should be eliminated with supply and demand determining the real value of the Naira.

From a technical standpoint, a vulnerable Dollar created from uncertainties surrounding Trump’s presidency has the ability to support the Nigerian Naira in the parallel exchange, with traders observing how prices react to 350.

Despite efforts to reduce its economy’s reliance on oil, Nigeria continues to be exposed to external risks due to oil market volatility. With OPEC potentially asking Nigeria to cut oil output in the pending OPEC meeting on May 25, the country’s 2017 budget which has been benchmarked against an oil production of 2.2 million barrels per day could be threatened.

The outlook for oil still remains bearish despite the probable nine-month extension to the supply cut deal with markets heavily focusing on how U.S Shale responds. If oil prices find comfort below $40 this year and Nigeria is forced to cut production following the OPEC meeting, this will impact government revenues and slightly obstruct the road to recovery.

2017 will be a critical test for Nigeria with foreign investors heavily scrutinizing economic data and central bank policies to gauge the health of the economy.

It is common knowledge that the largest economy in Africa needs to achieve a stable macroeconomic climate, heavily reinvest in agriculture when diversifying, and boost infrastructure to generate sustainable economic growth.

The subtle signs of stability remain visible with Nigeria’s stock exchange edging higher amid the improving sentiment while the one billion Federal Government Euro bond on the NSE continues to verify how confident foreign investors have become with regards to Nigeria’s future.

 

 


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E-Financial

Fidelity Bank Renovates Nasarawa PHC Clinic, Donates Water Facility

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As part of its Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) initiatives, leading financial institution, Fidelity Bank Plc, has renovated the Primary Healthcare Clinic along the Workers Village in the Tudun Amba Community of Lafia Local Government Area of Nasarawa State.

The bank also provided water facilities to ameliorate issues of water scarcity being experienced in the community in recent times.

Speaking at the inauguration ceremony, the Divisional Head, Brand and Communication Plc, Fidelity Bank, Meksley Nwagboh, said the dignity of every human person is a shared responsibility. The bank decided to embark on the project as a means of improving the living condition of people in the community and as part of the bank’s social responsibility to its host community.

Expressing gratitude to the leadership of the community for giving the bank the opportunity to execute the project, Nwagboh said, “What we are doing today is not different from what we have been doing in communities, local governments and states across the country over the years. As a socially responsible organisation, we take it upon ourselves to impact our host communities positively through developmental initiatives such as these.

“On behalf of the management and staff of Fidelity Bank, I want to say thank you to everyone who made it possible for us to touch the lives of the people positively in this community and we remain committed to playing our part in helping individuals grow, thrive and prosper”.

On his part, the Honourable Commissioner of Health, Nasarawa State, Gaza Gwamna, while commending Fidelity Bank for the donation of a water facility and the renovation works at the Primary Healthcare Clinic, reiterated the state government’s commitment to continue to support commercial banks to boost the economy of the state.

The Commissioner who was represented by the Permanent Secretary of the ministry, John Damina, further called on the Nasarawa State Primary Healthcare Development Agency to utilise the upgraded facility with care to encourage the bank and other private investors to continue to support the less-privileged people of the state.

“I want to use this opportunity to call on the management of the NAPHDA to ensure proper utilization of this facility for the good of the host community and beyond. This will go a long way in encouraging other private sector players to extend the same gesture to other communities in the state,” he said.

Ranked as one of the best banks in Nigeria, Fidelity Bank is a full-fledged customer commercial bank with over 8.5 million customers serviced across its 251 business offices in Nigeria and the United Kingdom as well as on digital banking channels.

The bank has won multiple local and international awards including the Export Finance Bank of the Year at the 2023 BusinessDay Banks and Other Financial Institutions (BAFI) Awards, the Best Payment Solution Provider Nigeria 2023 and Best SME Bank Nigeria 2022 by the Global Banking and Finance Awards; Best Bank for SMEs in Nigeria by the Euromoney Awards for Excellence 2023; and Best Domestic Private Bank in Nigeria by the Euromoney Global Private Banking Awards 2023.


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NDIC Gets Court Order, to Wind Down 96 Microfinance, Mortgage Banks

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Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC) has said that it has obtained Winding up Orders for 96 out of 183 microfinance and primary mortgage banks whose licenses were revoked by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) in May 2023.

NDIC Gets Court Order, to Wind Down 96 Microfinance, Mortgage Banks

Bello Hassa, managing director, NDIC, stated this at a sensitisation seminar for Judges of the Federal High Court in Lagos organised by the NDIC, to enlighten the judiciary on the intricacies of the banking industry.

Hassan said, “As at date, the Corporation had obtained Winding up Orders for 96 out of 183 Micro Finance and Primary Mortgage Banks whose licenses were revoked by the CBN in May 2023, in less than one Year of revocation.”

He added that the NDIC was committed to fulfilling its mandate of protecting depositors through bank supervision, failure resolution and liquidation so as to boost confidence in the financial system.

Speaking on the role that the judiciary plays in the fulfillment of the mandate, Hassan said, “We recognise the judiciary as one of our critical stakeholders. With this, when cases are brought before them, they can receive accelerated hearing and proclamation of Justice.”

Citing some of the achievements from previous editions of the seminar, Hassan said that instances where liquidation-related litigations experienced delays were reduced.

 

 

 


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CBN Finally Makes U-turn, Withdraws Circular on Cybersecurity Levy

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has withdrawn its earlier circular directing financial institutions to implement the national 0.5 per cent cyber security levy after the policy was largely resisted.

CBN Finally Makes U-turn, Withdraws Circular on Cybersecurity Levy

The withdrawal of the circular was announced via a statement signed by Haruna Mustafa, director, Financial Policy and Regulation, Department and Chibuzo Efobi, director, Payment System Management Department.

The apex bank confirmed the suspension in a circular issued on May 17, 2024 with reference number PSMD/DIR/PUB/LAB/017/005 addressed to commercial banks, mobile money operators, and other financial institutions.

In an earlier circular issued on May 6, 2024 with reference PSMD/DIR/PUB/LAB/017/004, the bank mandated financial institutions to charge a 0.5 per cent levy on all electronic transactions.

President Bola Tinubu last week ordered the suspension of the National Cybersecurity levy.

 

 

 

 

 


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