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Nigeria on Bumpy Road to Recovery; Foreign Exchange Reserves in Focus

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By Lukman Otunuga, Senior Research Analyst at FXTM,

The Nigerian economy still remains on a rocky road to recovery in the face of depressed oil prices, US-China trade uncertainty and fears over decelerating global growth.

Although the nation’s GDP expanded 1.94% during the second quarter of 2019, it is unlikely to meet the government’s 3% growth targets this year. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected Nigeria’s growth to expand 2.3% this year and 2.5% in 2020. Despite the ongoing push for economic diversification, 90% of foreign exchange earnings and 70% of government revenues are still attained from oil sales.

While the Central Bank of Nigeria can be commended on its effort to promote Naira stability, this has come at the expense of falling reserves which decreased to $42.1 billion in September. Much attention will be directed towards the pending foreign exchange reserves data for October scheduled for release on Wednesday. Further signs of reserves declining amid weak oil prices and intervention by the CBN is likely to weigh on the Naira.

Market mood brightens on trade deal optimism

The mood across financial markets continues to brighten after President Donald Trump said that Washington “was ahead of schedule” on a trade deal with China.

This encouraging news has certainly injected global equity bulls with a renewed sense of confidence as optimism increases that the two largest economies in the world will sign “phase one ” of the trade agreement soon. Shares across Asia are pushing higher on Tuesday amid the risk-on sentiment, after the S&P 500 hit an all time record high overnight on the back of trade hopes and prospects of lower interest rates by the Fed. The positive vibe from Asian markets should also support European stocks and potentially Wall Street later this afternoon.

Fourth time lucky? Johnson seeks snap election again

There was little to cheer about on Monday in Brexit news despite the European Union granting Britain a flexible three-month extension to the Brexit process until 31 January 2020.

Although this has prevented the UK from leaving the European Union on October 31 without a deal, it is simply kicking the can down the road. This sentiment is clearly being reflected in the British Pound which offered a fairly muted reaction to the third Brexit extension. With British lawmakers rejecting Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s plan for an early election in December, where do we go from here? While Johnson is expected to try again for an early election on Tuesday, history could repeat itself for the fourth time in two months. Until investors are offered proper direction and clarity on Brexit, Sterling’s rise may be capped below 1.30.

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Dollar waits for FOMC meeting

The Dollar held steady against a basket of major currencies on Tuesday ahead of the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. With markets widely expecting the Fed to dish out another insurance rate cut in face of trade uncertainty and global growth concerns, much attention will be directed towards Jerome Powell’s press conference. Should Powell sound less dovish than expected, investors are likely to revaluate whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December.

Gold in the spotlight

Gold has stumbled into the trading week under pressure thanks to the improving market mood and risk-on sentiment. Given how prices are trading below the $1500 level, further downside could be on the cards in the short term.

However, investor expectations over the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in October coupled with Brexit uncertainty should stimulate appetite towards the precious metal in the medium term. The longer-term outlook will remain influenced by US-China trade developments and global growth concerns. Although most remain cautiously optimistic over the two largest economies in the world signing a “phase one” trade deal, there is still room for disappointment as talks have fallen apart in the past. Focusing on the technical picture, Gold is tracking sideways on the daily charts but  the breakdown below $1500 should open a path towards $1485.

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E-Financial

FCMB Turns Normal Banking into Rewards with New Mobile App Upgrade

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First City Monument Bank (FCMB) has introduced a set of new features on its mobile app, led by a reward points system that turns everyday transactions into tangible benefits for customers.

FCMB Turns Normal Banking into Rewards with New Mobile App Upgrade

With this update, FCMB shifts the focus from routine banking to value creation, giving customers a stronger reason to engage, transact, and stay within its digital ecosystem.

At the centre of the upgrade is the Reward Points feature, which allows customers to earn and redeem points on transactions made in the app. The more customers use the platform, the more value they unlock, creating a direct link between daily banking activity and real-life rewards.

Beyond the rewards, the enhanced app introduces a Regal Premium Lifestyle Subscription that offers users access to curated lifestyle benefits across travel, dining, and entertainment, plus a three-month free transfer for new-to-bank customers.

Customers can now access mutual fund investments directly within the app, helping them grow wealth without multiple platforms. This feature reinforces FCMB’s commitment to empowering customers with accessible financial tools.

To improve customer experience, the app now includes “Chat with Temi”, an intelligent in-app support feature that delivers instant assistance and quicker issue resolution.

Speaking on the update, Oladipo Alabede, divisional head, Payments and Solutions, said: “At FCMB, we are constantly innovating to meet the evolving needs of our customers. These features are designed to provide convenience, reward loyalty, and empower our customers to do more with their finances, right from their mobile devices.”

In line with its financial inclusion drive, FCMB has simplified account upgrades from Tier 1 to Tier 2, allowing customers to access enhanced banking services without visiting a branch.

Additionally, the introduction of instant virtual card request and activation ensures customers can immediately create and use secure digital cards for online transactions.

Adetunji Lamidi, divisional head, Personal Banking, emphasised the Bank’s digital transformation journey: “These upgrades reflect our technology-driven strategy to build a smarter, more intuitive banking platform. By integrating intelligent support systems like Temi and enabling instant services such as virtual card activation, we are redefining convenience and accessibility in banking.”

This comprehensive upgrade reflects FCMB’s ongoing commitment to innovation, customer focus, and digital excellence, positioning the mobile app as a one-stop platform for seamless, rewarding, and future-ready banking.

Customers are encouraged to update or download the FCMB Mobile App today from their app store to use these new features and take full control of their financial journey.

 


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E-Financial

Despite Warnings, FG Draws Down $1.5Bn as First Tranche of FAB $5Bn Loan Deal

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Nigeria has accessed the first tranche of its $5 billion derivatives financing arrangement with First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB), drawing about $1.5 billion under the deal approved by the national assembly in March.

Despite Warnings, FG Draws Down $1.5Bn as First Tranche of FAB $5Bn Loan Deal

This is despite caution by the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  against proceeding with the proposed $5 billion structured Total Return Swap (TRS) financing program with First Abu Dhabi Bank.

IMF said that the complex derivative-based financing agreements are often opaque and carry hidden financial risks.

According to Bloomberg on Friday however, the federal government received the funds in the past two weeks through a structured total return swap (TRS) transaction with the United Arab Emirates’ largest lender, citing people familiar with the matter.

On March 31, the national assembly approved President Bola Tinubu’s request to secure up to $6 billion in external borrowing.

The borrowing plan comprised two facilities from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and the United Kingdom, including a structured TRS financing programme of up to $5 billion from First Abu Dhabi Bank.

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Tinubu had said the proposed borrowing would increase Nigeria’s public debt stock, which stood at $110.3 billion (about N159.2 trillion) as of December 31, 2025.

The drawdown comes despite concerns raised by Fitch Ratings over the financing arrangement.

Fitch warned that while such transactions can provide liquidity, diversify funding sources and lower borrowing costs, they often fall outside conventional debt-reporting frameworks and could weaken transparency and legislative oversight.

The rating agency also said the structure could expose Nigeria to additional foreign exchange risks if domestic bond yields rise or the naira depreciates.

Also, the International Monetary Fund has cautioned that the derivative-based financing arrangements are often opaque and complex, making it difficult to assess the full extent of governments’ debt obligations.


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E-Financial

Paystack Unveils AI-powered Payments Tools

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Paystack has launched Paystack Index, an experimental AI-powered payments tool, enabling users in Nigeria to complete everyday transactions through AI assistants such as ChatGPT and Claude.

The product allows users to buy airtime, send money via Zap by Paystack and order food from Chowdeck using simple text prompts. Instead of switching between multiple apps, users can instruct an AI assistant to execute transactions directly.

Paystack Index acts as a bridge between AI agents, merchants and Paystack’s payments infrastructure, while ensuring users retain control of authorised transactions.

The company said it does not store sensitive financial information such as card details, PINs or bank account credentials.

Developed with support from TSG Labs, Paystack’s innovation arm, the product builds on Paystack Checkout and Zap and forms part of the company’s broader work on AI-enabled commerce.

It is initially available to selected Zap users in Nigeria through an early-access beta programme and currently supports airtime and data purchases, wallet funding, money transfers and food orders.

Paystack said the launch reflects its belief that AI agents are emerging as a new interface for commerce, enabling users to move from prompts to real-world transactions.

Announced by co-founder and chief executive officer Shola Akinlade, the product positions AI assistants as execution layers for payments and commerce, rather than just tools for information and recommendations.

The launch comes amid rising AI adoption in Nigeria. According to a Google-Ipsos survey, 88% of Nigerians surveyed said they had used generative AI in the past year, while 62% said they used it for everyday tasks such as planning trips, meals or workouts.

The launch also follows Paystack’s recent restructuring under The Stack Group (TSG), which created dedicated business units for merchant payments, consumer transactions, banking services and emerging technologies.

Paystack plans to expand Paystack Index to more merchants, services and African markets, including Ghana, Kenya and South Africa, as it evaluates user behaviour and AI-powered checkout experiences.


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