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Nigeria Monetary Policy Makers in Tight Spot as Stagflation Takes Hold

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By Lukman Otunuga, Senior Research Analyst at FXTM
Nigerian monetary policymakers face three main pressures this quarter: the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and a pressing need for economic stimulus in addition to stagflation and a weakened Naira.

Monetary policymakers are in a tough spot after COVID-19 claimed the economy as a victim of lockdowns and reduced activity. The central bank has to take on a therapeutic role to nurse the country back to health. Are the available remedies enough to save the patient or have decades of over-reliance on the cover-all solution of strong oil revenues blunted their effectiveness?

CBN unlikely to cut rates

In its January decision, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) left its key interest rate unchanged at 11.5 percent, citing the pursuit of price stability. While other central banks adopted looser monetary policy to defend their economies against COVID-19, the CBN simply doesn’t have enough breathing room because it is dealing with stagflation marked by price inflation in the essential needs sector and a loss of productivity at the same time.

The CBN shows decisiveness and determination to reverse the stagflation and loss of output trends, according to its January meeting statement. Even amid the headwinds, it’s encouraging that the CBN realises the problem and is taking measures to handle it.

Nigeria faces severe stagflation 

The economic consequences of COVID-19 are the environment of stagflation with rising inflation and a recessionary economy, said the CBN. Stagflation is characterised by price rises which occur when there is an increase in inflation and at the same time an increase in unemployment and lower economic output. Meanwhile, import restrictions announced by the central bank to help local producers have added to fuel inflation which hit a three-year high in December.

Traditional monetary policy is hard-pressed to find a solution to both stagflation and a depressed economy at the same time. Lowering interest rates is one option but in Nigeria’s case might lead to an increase in inflation which is well above the target rate of six to nine percent and make things worse.

The remedy for stagflation depends on treating the root causes. These are the extensive pandemic lockdowns, chronically high inflation, and uncertainties in the oil markets feeding into reduced output and fiscal risks. While most of the causes are likely to pass once the pandemic is under control, none of them appears to have an early ending at the time of writing. Vaccination programmes take time to be effective and meanwhile demand for oil remains at relatively low levels because of travel restrictions.

Economic recession

Nigeria struggles with a recession with the threat of higher unemployment and poverty rates exacerbated by the public health threat from COVID-19. The recession impacts the buying power of the Naira and comes at a bad time after the central bank’s efforts to manage the currency and stoke economic growth in recent years rather than just focusing on keeping inflation in its target band of six to nine percent.

Monetary authorities had to devalue the Naira twice last year after a shortage of dollars pushed up import prices and increased the gap between the official and black-market exchange rates.

Unconventional tools of growth

In January, the CBN disbursed N20 trillion to cushion the pandemic effects and support the signs of improvement which came thanks to easing lockdown restrictions and more promising Oil prices. The CBN said that N192.64 billion was disbursed to households and small businesses from the COVID-19 Targeted Credit Facility.

The deployment of funds directly to their targets is certainly a significant support for the economy but the second wave of infections and ongoing uncertainty about the vaccine rollout threatens to sabotage any meaningful recovery, at least in the short term.

Too early to tighten?

The coronavirus is the dovish factor in the CBN’s price stability mandate and the central bank is likely to adopt a wait-and-see approach for the foreseeable future. Tightening monetary policy this year may be too soon and make Nigeria an outlier among major economies expected to ease or hold rates at record lows to breathe new life into their economies.

Other than direct funding, the CBN may end up using additional unconventional tools to revive growth including tweaking the loan to deposit ratio, the liquidity ratio, and cash reserve ratio. The questions are whether these will be enough to save the patient from more financial pain and what will be the long-term effects on Nigeria’s economic health.


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Dr. Adesina, AfDB Group President Calls for Media Transformation to Uplift Africa’s Global Narrative

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Dr Akinwumi Adesina, the President of the African Development Bank Group, delivered an impassioned plea for more balanced media coverage of Africa and its development, noting it was critical for changing false narratives.

Adesina said this on Thursday in a keynote speech to the All Africa’s Media summit in Nairobi, attended by nearly 300 participants from across the continent. He praised the crucial role the media plays in strengthening democracy and advancing inclusivity.

The Bank Group president said there were many positive developments in Africa yet the continent continues to suffer misrepresentations which undermine its economic progress and investment potential.

“Despite the significant progress within our continent, the prevailing media narrative often focuses on negative stereotypes, overlooking the substantial advancements and resilience Africa demonstrates,” he added.

Adesina said there was plenty of positive news to report about and highlighted the continent’s economic resilience regional and amid global challenges. He said that in 2023, Africa’s growth rate surpassed the global average, with 11 African nations ranked among the world’s fastest-growing economies.

Adesina referenced a 2021 Africa No Filter Report, which revealed significant adherence to outdated and negative clichés in media reports about Africa. “It’s time for change,” he declared. “We must reshape the narrative about Africa to reflect its true spirit and potential.”

He emphasised the critical nature of information and its ability to have a profound negative impact on development and investor perceptions even though an in-depth investigation by Moody’s Analytics had shown the continent was much less of a risk than many other continents.

“We must promote a balanced view that highlights both the challenges and the many successes of Africa. It’s about changing perceptions and showcasing Africa as a continent rich with opportunity and innovation.”

The Bank Group President also spoke about the challenges and transformations within the media sector, highlighting the impact of digital technology.

“The media landscape has dramatically shifted with the rise of the internet and mobile technology, leading to a proliferation of digital platforms,” Adesina declared.

“While this has democratised information, it has also complicated issues, the distinction between fact and fiction can become blurred.”

To counter unfair and unbalanced narratives, Adesina urged the creation of a powerful, globally respected African media and proposed strategic collaborations among regional financial institutions to support this cause, emphasising the need for media to act as a catalyst for development.

“We need to celebrate and promote the continent’s successes, turning the tide against the longstanding stereotypes that have clouded the global view of Africa… What you call yourself, is the name others will subscribe to you.”

“For as long as we continually denigrate ourselves and play into the hands of those who control the narrative about Africa, we will be stuck with a label that does not belong to us,” he concluded.

He highlighted the African Development Bank’s own successes which included maintaining a AAA credit rating and launching groundbreaking financial initiatives that have earned it respect as an innovative and successful multilateral development bank.

“We have proven that Africa can lead with innovation and strength in the global financial landscape,” the President remarked. “Yet, these achievements receive minimal attention compared to the persistent focus on Africa’s challenges.”

Adesina added that just one month ago, the Bank launched a landmark $750 million hybrid capital instrument, again with a Triple A rating, which was oversubscribed eight times. He described this as a huge “testament to the confidence and trust in Africa’s burgeoning financial capabilities.”

He pledged that the African Development Bank remained committed to supporting initiatives that would help the media present a more balanced and progressive portrayal of Africa and support its economic development.

In a discussion with Julie Gichuru of the Mastercard Foundation after his address, Adesina said Africa was blessed with energy sources, but millions remained without electricity. “This must change,” he said.

“We cannot industrialise in the dark, we cannot develop in the dark. Our children cannot be competitive in a world of darkness,” he concluded.


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Brands Jostle for CVA 2024 as Consumers Vote

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Ongoing voting for brands on the Consumers Value Awards portals, consumers expressed brand satisfaction with their votes.

Over 40 categories of brands are listed based on consumers’ nominations on the Consumers Value Awards portal for voting as Value-for-Money brands in the 2024 edition of the award.

Consumers cast votes for brands to express satisfaction among various brands.

Presenting the one-month result, Akonte Ekine, CEO of BrandXchange, said the initiative is transparent and objective. It’s the consumer position on brands as nomination and voting drive the platform.

According to him, in the Telecommunications category (MNOs), MTN leads with 51.1% of the votes recorded in the first month, Spectranet has 47.6% of the votes in the Internet Service Provider segment, and MTN has 69.2% votes for ISP under the MNOs.

In the ongoing 3rd edition voting, two new categories of sanitary pad and Ice Cream are experiencing consumers’ attention as Always Sanitary Pad leads the segment with 63.6%, Just Delight Ice Cream at 36.2% and Viva Detergent at 41.7%.

Other leaders on the voting platform of Consumers Value Awards based on consumer preferences in the first month under home appliances (Television, Refrigerator, Air conditioner and washing machine) are Samsung 40%, Haiier Termocool 40%, Lontor 40% and Haier Termocool 42.9% respectively.

Trophy leads Alcohol Beverage with 50% of the votes, and Pepsi takes 62.5% of ⁠Carbonated Drinks. It is a tie among consumers on the cooking oil and regular Toot paste as Kings Oil and Power Oil achieved the same vote of 50%, Colgate Toothpaste and Close Up Toothpaste also tied with 26.7% votes each in the categories while Dabur Toothpaste leads in the herbal toothpaste category with 55.6%.

Lafarge Cement leads with 62.5% in the Cement, Dangote Sugar has 55% of the votes in Sugar, Leadway Insurance has 57.1%, Eva leads the Table water category with 38.5%

Other leaders in various segments based on consumer votes on the Consumers Value awards platforms are Maltina 40%, Dettol 37.5%, Peak Milk 80%, Golden Penny Spaghetti 80%, Indomie Noodle 85.7%, Checkers 90%, GTB 66.7%, OPay 62.5%, Morning Fresh 62.5%, and Gala Sausage Roll 94.4%.

Also, knorr Cube 57.1%, Lipton Tea Bag 83.3%, Vaseline 71.4% and Golden Morn lead their sectors, Milo and Bournvita tied with 50% of the vote each as leaders alongside MTN and Cadbury tying with 40% votes under Consumer-Friendly brands.

Vitafoam 44.4%, Guinness Stout 83.3%, Mobil Engine oil 100% (International Engine Oil Brand), Oleum Oil 100% (Made in Nigeria Brand), Hypo and Harpic 50%, Fearless 33.3%, Abidec 80%, Reload Kids 60% Reload Adult 66.6%, and Bet 9ja 50%

The voting will close on 30th June 2024.

 


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Sterling One Foundation Partners UNIDO, Others to Launch ESG Series

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The Sterling One Foundation, a non-profit organization dedicated to sustainable development and empowering professionals to drive social impact across Africa, has partnered with Price Waterhouse Coopers Nigeria, UNIDO-Investment Technology Promotion Office, Nigeria, Lagos Business School Sustainability Center, Sterling Bank, NGX Group, the Nigeria Employers Consultative Association and the Lagos Chamber of Commerce & Industry to unveil  the first edition of its Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) Series.

The partnership aims to support professionals in understanding, implementing, and reporting sustainability progress, in alignment with global standards.

According to a signed statement by the Foundation, the ESG Series was birthed following a workshop held at the 2023 edition of the Africa Social Impact Summit (ASIS) where it was discovered that there was a significant knowledge gap on the subject within the African development ecosystem as well as the private sector.

They commended all the excellent partners who have made the series possible noting that their commitment will strengthen professionals’ competencies in integrating ESG principles into organizational frameworks, and drive positive change while advancing the adoption of ESG principles and increased investment into the economy from local and global investors.

Over the years, Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) considerations have evolved from optional to essential for organizations, making the significance of incorporating ESG principles into business plans to enhance sustainability and corporate responsibility, for organizations an increased priority. Statistics indicate that ESG-focused institutional investments are projected to reach $33.9 trillion by 2026.

Through this series, the Foundation said it aims to demystify ESG concepts among the private, public, and development sectors in Nigeria and Africa while highlighting their tangible business benefits, to equip professionals with the knowledge and tools necessary for successful ESG integration in their organizations.

The one-day virtual event gives insight through in-depth sessions featuring thought leaders from private sector impact makers, development partners, international non-governmental organizations, and government agencies.


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