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A Bumpy Road Ahead

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By Hussein Sayed, Chief Market Strategist at FXTM,

The world has finally seen a glimpse of light at the end of this dark tunnel. The coronavirus outbreak is starting to level off across many countries and cities.

Looking at the new daily infected cases and death toll from Spain, Italy, Germany and France, all of those countries seem to be heading into a downward trajectory. Meanwhile, in the US, the governors of New York, Louisiana and New Jersey pointed to cautious signs that the virus outbreak may be starting to flatten.

It saddens me to use a ‘death’ indicator as a financial market tool, but that’s what’s driving investors at the moment. The declining number of deaths registered due to COVID-19 suggests that we are winning the fight against this horrible virus. Total death rates had decreased from 13% at the start of April to 7% yesterday. That’s the first time we have seen a single-digit number since March 14.

The drop in newly infected cases and death toll sparked a sharp rally in equities, with US stocks registering its best day in a fortnight – and its eight best day since the end of the second world war –  as the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both rallied more than 7% on Monday. At this stage, markets are repricing the worst-case scenario due to the virus outbreak, but in my opinion, it’s still too early to justify a prolonged move higher.

Investors moving into risk assets at this stage believe that we’re heading into a V-shaped recovery. Attractive valuations, ‘fear of missing out’ and extraordinary stimulus packages also exaggerate the upside moves in prices. However, no one yet knows the exact damage this virus has already done to the global economy, corporate earnings, and what kind of exit strategies countries will follow in the weeks ahead. Without proper treatment or vaccination, lockdowns could be re-imposed and the global economy will then continue to suffer. The corporate earnings outlook is also very murky as the dispersion of analysts’ forecasts are near a record high.  Hence, the road ahead won’t be a smooth one, especially as investors still need to digest a mountain of negative economic data and possibly many bankruptcies.

In my opinion, the best-case scenario is likely to be a U-shaped recovery and not a V-shaped one. The world post-coronavirus is not going to be the same for a long time to come. Social behaviour needs time to return back to normal which means the service sector will continue to feel the pain. For now, let’s hope that we beat the coronavirus and it becomes just a memory of the past.

 


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Ugo Onwuaso is an ICT enthusiast. He believes technology should be used for general good. He holds a Master of Public Administration (MPA) degree from the Lagos state University. Dear Reader, Your support matters. But we believe that technology makes life more exciting and helps improve the lives of people around Nigeria and indeed the world. That is why, we have devoted our energy to independent reportage of technology and finance and how they affect lives. Our incisive and analytical view of how technology news affects the daily life help individuals and organizations make up their minds. Quality journalism costs money. Today, we're asking that you support us to do more. Kindly support our effort to deliver technology and finance journalism to everyone in the world. Donate as little as N1,000. Bank transfers can be made to: UBA Plc 1017156876 Communication Week Media Ltd

E-Financial

Police Arrest Members of N713m Bank Fraud Syndicate, Chinese Suspect at Large

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Nigeria Police Force has arrested two suspects over a N713.9 million fraud linked to a breach involving a third-party banking platform.

Police Arrest Members of N713m Bank Fraud Syndicate, Chinese Suspect at Large

The police in a statement signed by Anthony Okon Placid, Force Public Relations Officer Force Headquarters, Abuja said the case followed a complaint by a financial institution which reported unauthorised debits on customers’ accounts, leading to an investigation by the Police Special Fraud Unit (PSFU).

Acting on the complaint, operatives of the PSFU deployed advanced investigative and digital forensic techniques, revealing that fifteen customers’ accounts had been compromised.

The funds were subsequently channelled through a network of accounts in a coordinated laundering scheme.

The operation led to the arrest of two suspects, Oguntoyinbo Olawale and Kazeem Omokayode.

Further investigations established that the suspects conspired with one Linda, a Chinese national currently at large, to use personal identification details, including Bank Verification Number (BVN), National Identification Number (NIN), and other credentials, to open multiple bank accounts across various financial institutions. These accounts were then used to receive, conceal, and launder illicit proceeds.

The suspects in custody are to be arraigned before a court of competent jurisdiction, while efforts are ongoing to apprehend other members of the syndicate still at large.

Olatunji Disu, Inspector-General of Police (IGP), commended officers of the Police Special Fraud Unit for their efforts and reaffirmed the commitment of the Nigeria Police Force to combating financial and cyber-enabled crimes.

 


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E-Financial

Firm Unveils Pan-African Financial Operating System to Improve Interoperability

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Tulupay, a fintech infrastructure firm, has announced the prelaunch of its pan-African Financial Operating System (FOS) aimed at improving interoperability across the continent’s fragmented financial ecosystem.

The company said the platform is designed to connect banks, mobile money operators, digital wallets and blockchain networks through a unified system, with the goal of easing cross-border payments, remittances and trade.

Founder, Felix Achibiri, said Africa’s financial landscape remains constrained by disconnected payment rails and high transaction costs, particularly for cross-border transfers. He noted that the new system seeks to provide a single infrastructure that links traditional financial services with emerging digital platforms.

“As cross-border transfers remain slow and expensive, and as more African central banks move toward CBDCs, the need for a unifying, interoperable operating system has never been more urgent,” he said.

According to the firm, the FOS will integrate multiple financial services, including payments, remittances, asset trading and investment, into one framework accessible to individuals, businesses and institutions.

Key components of the system include, Tulu Switch, a payments interoperability hub that enables transactions across different financial platforms through a single application interface, and Tulu Identity, a digital identity and compliance layer designed to streamline customer verification and regulatory processes.

It also plans to roll out Tulu Gateway, a trade platform aimed at supporting cross-border commerce through the digitisation of trade documents and automated settlement, as well as Tulu Wallet, which allows users to manage both fiat and digital currencies in one place.

The company added that the platform would support asset tokenisation and provide exchange infrastructure for trading digital and tokenised assets, alongside a blockchain network intended to serve as the backbone for transactions and settlement.

The announcement follows approval by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for Tulupay to participate in its fintech incubation programme, a step towards securing licences for digital asset custody, tokenisation and exchange services.

Achibiri said improving interoperability and reducing transaction costs would be critical to unlocking intra-African trade, particularly under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

The firm said it is currently conducting pilot programmes with financial institutions, regulators and other partners ahead of a full rollout.

 


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E-Financial

FCMB Opens Applications for Zero-Interest Loans of Up to ₦10m for Women Entrepreneurs

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First City Monument Bank has opened applications for a new round of its SheVentures programme, offering zero-interest loans of up to ₦10 million to women entrepreneurs to improve access to working capital and support business growth.

FCMB Opens Applications for Zero-Interest Loans of Up to ₦10m for Women Entrepreneurs

FCMB

The bank said the initiative was designed to address financing challenges faced by women-led businesses, which continue to encounter high borrowing costs and limited access to affordable credit despite accounting for a significant portion of Nigeria’s small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).

Under the scheme, eligible applicants can access loans ranging from ₦500,000 to ₦5 million under the general category, while sector-specific businesses can obtain between ₦5 million and ₦10 million.

According to the bank, the funding is capped at up to 50 per cent of an applicant’s average monthly turnover.

The facility comes with a zero per cent interest rate, with all charges incorporated into a transparent pricing structure. Repayment is spread over four or six months to allow businesses align obligations with their cash flow cycles.

Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of FCMB, Yemisi Edun, said the intervention reflects the bank’s commitment to inclusive growth and economic empowerment.

“Inclusive growth requires access to capital and the right conditions for businesses to deploy that capital effectively. Women-led enterprises are critical to economic activity, yet they face structural barriers. This intervention aims to help close that gap by providing financing that supports job creation, business expansion, and long-term sustainability for women entrepreneurs,” Edun said.

Also speaking, Group Head, SheVentures and Impact Segments at FCMB, Nnenna Jacob-Ogogo, said access to affordable finance remained a major challenge for women entrepreneurs.

“By removing the cost barrier and offering quick, flexible funding, this zero-interest loan is designed to safeguard existing jobs, enable businesses to invest in growth initiatives, and foster resilience in challenging economic conditions,” she said.

FCMB noted that beyond access to funding, SheVentures also provides broader business support services aimed at strengthening women-led enterprises, encouraging innovation and improving competitiveness.

The bank said applications for the zero-interest loans are now open to qualified women entrepreneurs across the country.


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