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A Bumpy Road Ahead

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By Hussein Sayed, Chief Market Strategist at FXTM,

The world has finally seen a glimpse of light at the end of this dark tunnel. The coronavirus outbreak is starting to level off across many countries and cities.

Looking at the new daily infected cases and death toll from Spain, Italy, Germany and France, all of those countries seem to be heading into a downward trajectory. Meanwhile, in the US, the governors of New York, Louisiana and New Jersey pointed to cautious signs that the virus outbreak may be starting to flatten.

It saddens me to use a ‘death’ indicator as a financial market tool, but that’s what’s driving investors at the moment. The declining number of deaths registered due to COVID-19 suggests that we are winning the fight against this horrible virus. Total death rates had decreased from 13% at the start of April to 7% yesterday. That’s the first time we have seen a single-digit number since March 14.

The drop in newly infected cases and death toll sparked a sharp rally in equities, with US stocks registering its best day in a fortnight – and its eight best day since the end of the second world war –  as the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both rallied more than 7% on Monday. At this stage, markets are repricing the worst-case scenario due to the virus outbreak, but in my opinion, it’s still too early to justify a prolonged move higher.

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Investors moving into risk assets at this stage believe that we’re heading into a V-shaped recovery. Attractive valuations, ‘fear of missing out’ and extraordinary stimulus packages also exaggerate the upside moves in prices. However, no one yet knows the exact damage this virus has already done to the global economy, corporate earnings, and what kind of exit strategies countries will follow in the weeks ahead. Without proper treatment or vaccination, lockdowns could be re-imposed and the global economy will then continue to suffer. The corporate earnings outlook is also very murky as the dispersion of analysts’ forecasts are near a record high.  Hence, the road ahead won’t be a smooth one, especially as investors still need to digest a mountain of negative economic data and possibly many bankruptcies.

In my opinion, the best-case scenario is likely to be a U-shaped recovery and not a V-shaped one. The world post-coronavirus is not going to be the same for a long time to come. Social behaviour needs time to return back to normal which means the service sector will continue to feel the pain. For now, let’s hope that we beat the coronavirus and it becomes just a memory of the past.

 

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Ugo Onwuaso is an ICT enthusiast. He believes technology should be used for general good. He holds a Master of Public Administration (MPA) degree from the Lagos state University. Dear Reader, Your support matters. But we believe that technology makes life more exciting and helps improve the lives of people around Nigeria and indeed the world. That is why, we have devoted our energy to independent reportage of technology and finance and how they affect lives. Our incisive and analytical view of how technology news affects the daily life help individuals and organizations make up their minds. Quality journalism costs money. Today, we're asking that you support us to do more. Kindly support our effort to deliver technology and finance journalism to everyone in the world. Donate as little as N1,000. Bank transfers can be made to: UBA Plc 1017156876 Communication Week Media Ltd

E-Financial

FG Spent N3.1 Trillion on Domestic Debt Servicing in Q1- DMO

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Debt Management Office (DMO) said the federal government spent N3.14 trillion on servicing its domestic debt in the first quarter  of 2026.

FG Spent N3.1 Trillion on Domestic Debt Servicing in Q1- DMO

The office disclosed the data in its latest domestic debt service report for Q1 2026.

The figure comprises N2.97 trillion in interest payments and N169.68 billion in principal repayments.

The agency said in January, the government spent N741.82 billion on domestic debt service, while the figure rose to N967.67 billion in February.

Debt service increased further to N1.43 trillion in March, bringing the total for the quarter to N3.14 trillion.

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The March figure was 47.7 percent higher than the N967.67 billion recorded in February and 92.7 percent above the N741.82 billion spent in January.

Also, the debt office said interest payments accounted for about 94.6 percent of total domestic debt service during the quarter.

The DMO said treasury bills accounted for the largest share of interest payments at N1 trillion, while interest on federal government bonds stood at N1.96 trillion.

The agency said the government also paid N4.24 billion in interest on FGN savings bonds during the period.

The DMO said the principal component of the debt service comprised N169.68 billion in repayments on local-denominated promissory notes.

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Overall, the government’s domestic debt service rose sharply through the quarter, with March accounting for almost half of the N3.14 trillion spent between January and March.

Nigeria’s public debt increased by 0.01 percent to N159.35 trillion in the Q1 of 2026.

 

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E-Financial

Interswitch, Temenos Commit to Advancing Nigeria’s Digital Banking Technology

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Interswitch Group, an integrated digital payments and commerce company, together with global banking software provider, Temenos have reassured the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) of their commitment to advancing the modernisation of Nigeria’s financial services sector.

Interswitch and Temenos had earlier in June announced a strategic partnership across Africa which would see Interswitch leverage Temenos solutions – across core banking, digital banking, payments, wealth management and financial crime mitigation – to provide cloud-hosted and on-premises managed services to banks and financial institutions across Africa.

This will enable institutions to progressively transform their banking platform and evolve to more customer-centric business models. The service will initially support key African markets including Nigeria, Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire, Kenya and others.

The recent regulatory visit to CBN headquarters in Abuja, was led by the Founder and Group Chief Executive Officer of Interswitch, Mitchell Elegbe, and Managing Director for the Middle East and Africa (MEA) at Temenos, Santhosh Rao, as part of the ongoing efforts by both organisations to deepen collaboration with Central Banks across the African region on the future of digital banking infrastructure across Nigeria and key African markets.

Discussions centred on the strategic partnership between Interswitch and Temenos, and how it will enable Nigerian financial institutions to progressively modernise their core banking platforms and transition to more customer-centric business models.

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The two organisations also explored opportunities to work with the CBN in charting new frontiers in Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) innovation, leveraging resilient financial networks and decentralised application platforms to support the issuance and management of CBDCs.

Commenting on the visit, Elegbesaid: “Our partnership as Interswitch with Temenos and our continued engagement with the Central Bank of Nigeria reflect a shared commitment to building banking infrastructure that is resilient, inclusive, and ready for the next phase of Africa’s financial evolution.

We are proud to be at the table as these conversations shape the future of digital banking technology and innovation across key Africa markets…”

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E-Financial

BOI Opens N250Bn Bond Offer to Fund Businesses

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The Bank of Industry, through BOI Financing SPV Plc, has opened subscriptions for its inaugural Series 1 Fixed Rate Bond worth up to N250bn under its $1bn multi-currency instruments programme, seeking to raise long-term capital to finance businesses across Nigeria’s priority sectors.

The offer, which opened on 5 August and closes on 11 August, is being arranged by Chapel Hill Denham as the lead issuing house. The five-year bond is priced within a yield range of 17.35 per cent to 17.50 per cent and will be listed on the FMDQ Securities Exchange.

According to the offer document, proceeds from the issuance will be deployed to finance eligible businesses and projects across sectors, including agriculture and food processing, healthcare, engineering and technology, renewable energy, petrochemicals, oil and gas, creative industries and solid minerals, in line with BOI’s development finance mandate.

The lender said the financing is expected to improve access to medium and long-term funding for Nigerian enterprises, expand productive capacity, create and preserve jobs, deepen local value addition, support import substitution, boost exports and strengthen domestic value chains.

BOI, Nigeria’s foremost development finance institution, said it has provided funding to more than one million businesses across the country and disbursed over N1.27tn between 2023 and 2025. The institution operates across 34 states and the Federal Capital Territory and is jointly owned by the Ministry of Finance Incorporated and the Central Bank of Nigeria.

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The bank also highlighted its financial performance, reporting a 36 per cent compound annual growth rate in gross earnings between 2021 and 2025.

Interest income rose 64 per cent to N884bn in 2025 from N538bn in the previous year, while its capital adequacy ratio stood at 39 per cent, nearly four times the regulatory minimum of 10 per cent. Its non-performing loan ratio was 1.7 per cent, below the CBN’s prudential limit of five per cent.

The bond has been assigned AAA ratings by Agusto & Co. and Intelligence Africa, reflecting the issuer’s strong capitalization, profitability, liquidity and ownership structure.

The issuance is open to institutional and qualified investors with a minimum subscription of N5m and additional investments in multiples of N1m. Interest will be paid semi-annually at a fixed rate, while principal repayment will begin in the third year through equal semi-annual amortised instalments until maturity in 2031.

The bond is also exempt from tax, making it an attractive investment option for investors seeking stable returns amid expectations of declining interest rates.

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