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Coronation Merchant Bank Projects 2.8% GDP Growth for 2023

Experts at Coronation Merchant Bank have projected 2.8 per cent growth in Gross Domestic Product for 2023, attributing it to slow policy implementations and capital expenses due to laser focus on the general elections and transition between administration in the first half of the year.
Chinwe Egwim, the Chief Economist and Head, Economic Research/Intelligence, Coronation Merchant Bank, in a presentation stated that the GDP growth is projected to be driven mainly by the non-oil sector.
According to her, “The services, agriculture and manufacturing sectors are likely to remain key growth drivers, supported by financial interventions by the CBN. Furthermore, the effective implementation of the 2022 Finance Act and the Strategic Revenue Growth Initiatives should contribute to the growth drive through increased non-oil revenues.
“We also considered stable oil prices above USD80/barrel. However, we expect domestic crude oil production to remain below pre-COVID19 levels, due to existing challenges within the sector.
“We have also taken into consideration, relatively weak consumption patterns on the back of high inflation and its impact on service-oriented sectors, the impact of foreign exchange depreciation and increased borrowing costs on business activities.”
She noted that there would Be increased foreign exchange demand due to the need for safe- haven currency (USD) on the back of security concerns.
We expect weak portfolio investment inflow on the back of negative real returns (yields vs inflation) and the political risks surrounding the 2023 general elections. We considered the absence of Nigeria from the ICM in the near term, which does not bode well for external reserves.
“Accordingly, we expect that the existing demand patterns in the parallel market will continue. In our base case scenario, we see the foreign exchange rate at the NAFEX/I&E window at N505/ USD by end-2023.
“We considered: stable growth in non-oil exports boosted by the RT 200 foreign exchange program, continuous injections by the CBN (avg. seven per cent of total inflows on a m/m basis), halt to fuel subsidy payments by end-H1 2023.
She stated that analysts at Coronation Merchant Bank expected inflation to moderate in 2023, partly attributed to positive base effects and the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) current stance on the policy rate.
She noted that the persistent supply shocks on the back of the on-going Russia-Ukraine crisis as well as structural issues impacting the cost of doing business such as insecurity and other logistical challenges would likely keep inflation elevated.
“Other factors include, base effects, depreciation of the naira in the parallel market and an uptick in the price of PMS, due to the potential subsidy removal which would impact the cost of transport and possible demand-pull inflation triggered by increased fiscal stimulus.
“In our base case scenario, we see inflation at 18.3per cent y/y for end-2023,” she added. Speaking at the leading financial institution’s Economic Review and Outlook themed: “baton handoff economic headwinds and risk resilience in Lagos recently,” she noted
Also speaking at the event, Mr. Banjo Adegbohungbe, the MD/CEO, Coronation Merchant Bank, in his opening speech said imminent transition is the overall theme of 2023 as Nigeria is currently having transitions in so many spheres happening at once.
According to him, “And not just that this transition is happening at the domestic environment, we also have the domestic impact of a lot of events that are occurring across the globe at the same time.
“For example, the recent downgrades of Nigeria’s risk ratings highlight various concerns around critical challenges that are filled the spotlight on our direction post transition in 2023.
“While there are significant headwinds in 2023, we believe that the potential also exists to tap into new opportunities.
“At the end of the day, the focus is simple and that is to enable you navigate the headwinds and achieve your respective strategic objectives by identifying those new opportunities.”
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NIA Questions Legality of Reps’ Financial Probe

The Nigerian Insurers Association has urged the House Committee on Capital Market and Institutions to respect the constitutional separation of powers as it carries out a probe on over 20 insurance firms.
In a statement on Tuesday night, the Director General/Chief Executive Officer of NIA, Mrs Bola Odukale, said the decision of NIA and the affected firms to approach the court was to seek clarity on the constitutional limits of the House Committee’s probe.
It would be recalled that the House of Representatives on Monday is investigating no fewer than 25 insurance companies operating in the country for various financial infractions spanning financial reporting, claims settlement, premium remittance, and issuance of policies.
The Chairman, House Sub-Committee on Capital Market and Institutions, Kwamoti Laori, during a meeting with the management of the insurance companies at the National Assembly Complex in Abuja, said the meeting was convened following the receipt of a petition on infractions by the insurance companies.
In the statement, Odukale said, “The Association wishes to state unequivocally that all actions taken by the NIA and the affected member companies in response to the Committee’s invitations and pronouncements were based entirely on legal advice by its Solicitors. It was on the firm instruction of legal counsel that recourse was made to the courts.
“The objective of approaching the Court is to seek judicial guidance on the legality, propriety, and constitutional limits of the Committee’s intervention in order to safeguard institutional integrity, uphold regulatory independence, and ensure that legislative oversight remains within the bounds of law.
“The Court action seeks to determine whether the current posture of the Committee reflects an exercise of legislative judgment, which, by constitutional design, is the exclusive province of statutory regulators, such as the National Insurance Commission, Securities and Exchange Commission, Nigerian Exchange, Financial Reporting Council, Nigeria Data Protection Commission, and the National Information Technology Development Agency.
“This raises serious questions about legislative overreach and an erosion of the doctrine of separation of powers, a cornerstone of Nigeria’s constitutional democracy.”
Odukale maintained that the NIA was committed to lawful and constructive engagement with all arms of government, provided that such engagement respects the autonomy of statutory regulators and the boundaries established by the Constitution.
“The NIA will continue to provide its full support to all member companies while upholding the principles of legal compliance and sector-wide integrity,” Odukale concluded.
17 of the companies that went to court were represented by their lawyer, Mr Abimbola Kayode, at the meeting with the committee.
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Horn of Africa Leaders Seek Enhanced Digital Integration for Increased Regional Growth

Finance ministers and development partners from the Horn of Africa have called for enhanced digital integration to boost trade, drive economic growth and promote regional stability during the 25th Ministerial Meeting of the Horn of Africa Initiative (HoAI).
Held in Nairobi, on July 14, the meeting was co-chaired by the African Development Bank’s Vice President for Regional Development, Integration and Business Delivery, Nnenna Nwabufo and Somalia’s Minister of Finance, Bihi Iman Egeh. Discussions underscored the critical role of digital integration in reducing trade barriers, boosting government service delivery and creating employment — particularly for the region’s youth.
“Digital technologies are shaping today’s economy and tomorrow’s industries. By embedding these technologies into our programs, we can not only improve inclusion but also leapfrog outdated development models,” said Nwabufo.
She called for digital integration a “central enabler” in each of the Horn of Africa Initiative’s pillars – trade, infrastructure, resilience, and human capital,
Learning through experience
Drawing from global and regional success stories, speakers highlighted the transformative potential of technology-led development. The ministers pointed to the Philippines as a strong example, where ICT has generated millions of jobs in business process outsourcing. Similarly, Kenya’s fintech innovation—especially the success of M-PESA—was cited as a model for scaling digital financial services across the region.
Participants urged governments to proactively foster digital ecosystems by capitalizing on the demographic dividend, identifying infrastructure upgrades, tighter regulatory reforms, and digital skills trainings as priorities to enable broader participation in the digital economy.
Minister Egeh reiterated the need for more coordinated regional efforts to create the enabling environment required for accelerated digital integration and expansion. He referenced the HoAI Digital Policy Matrix, adopted in 2023 which provides a blueprint on how to address key obstacles to achieving effective digital integration across the region.
Barack Makokha, Kenya’s Cabinet Secretary for National Treasury, underscored the importance of regionally-aligned public private partnerships and advocated for blended financing to reduce investment risk and expand digital access in underserved areas.
World Bank Vice President for Eastern and Southern Africa, Ndiame Diop, called for a comprehensive multi-pronged approach, combining cross-border coordination, large-scale financing, robust policy support, and digital infrastructure investments. He pointed out that such measures could transform digital integration into, “a powerful engine of economic transformation” for the Horn of Africa—ensuring no one is left behind in the digital era.
The meeting concluded with a shared recognition that sustained political will and the determination to implement a multifaceted approach are essential to unlocking the region’s economic potential and driving long-term growth.
The event also welcomed observers from the East African Community, Agence française de développement, and Shelter Afrique, reflecting strong regional and international backing for the HoAI in the development community.
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CSCS Inaugurates Custodian Portal to Enhance Digital Access, Operational Efficiency

Central Securities Clearing System Plc (CSCS), Nigeria’s capital market infrastructure provider, has launched its Custodian Portal, a user-centric digital solution designed to optimise custodian operations through intuitive, secure and efficient features.
Haruna Jalo-Waziri, Chief Executive Officer (CEO), CSCS, announced this in a statement on Monday.
The CSCS is a Public Limited Company with a diversified shareholder base, which serves as the Central Securities Depository for the Nigerian Capital Market.
It serves as the Central Depository for Equities, Commercial Papers, Corporate Bonds, Sub-National Bonds, certain Sovereign Bonds like the FGN Sukuk and the FGN Savings Bond, Equity-traded Funds, Real Estate Investment Trusts, Mutual funds and Commodities.
Jalo-Waziri said that the custodian portal offered a streamlined experience for market participants with powerful tools that facilitate comprehensive portfolio and trade management, document tracking, share transfer operations, client symbol search, and real-time access to vital data.
He explained that the portal, designed to operate through a flexible subscription-based model, empowered users to manage their records effortlessly and securely through convenient payment channels such as GTPay and Paystack.
According to him, “Digital transformation remains at the core of our strategy to enhance the efficiency, transparency and accessibility of Nigeria’s capital market services.
“The custodian portal is a significant leap in that direction, offering custodians a centralised platform to manage critical processes in real-time.
“We are excited about the value this innovation brings to our stakeholders, and we will continue to evolve the platform in line with users’ needs and industry trends.”
The CEO also explained that the portal was designed with user experience in mind with feature tools like portfolio viewing and downloads in PDF or Excel format.
He further said that it also featured tracking of stock movements across date ranges, inbox messaging and request tracking, as well as robust user management capabilities including role assignment and status tracking.
Similarly, the Divisional Head, Business Technology and Digital Innovation, CSCS Plc, Tobe Nnadozie, said that the portal aligned with CSCS’s drive to automate the market.
“In addition to the normal features, the platform is a part of an omnichannel platform for custodians, and includes API services.
“It also connects to the market-wide workflow, which CSCS has built to ensure secured communication and approvals across all major stakeholders in the market.
“The platform is well secured with best-of-breed cybersecurity solutions and our SOC,” he said.
The Custodian Portal reinforces CSCS’s commitment to leveraging technology to streamline back-office functions and support a more agile, data-driven capital market ecosystem.
All custodians in the Nigerian capital market have now been successfully on-boarded on the Custodian Portal, marking a significant milestone in CSCS’s ongoing drive to enhance collaboration, standardise operational processes, and promote digital adoption across the market.
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