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Depletion of ECA Leaves Nigerian Economy Vulnerable- World Bank

Nigerian economy has become more vulnerable to shocks as a result of the depletion of the Excess Crude Account (ECA), according to the World Bank.

The ECA was established in 2004 to save revenues in excess of the budgetary benchmark price generated from the sale of oil, with the aim of protecting the country’s budgets against shortfalls caused by the volatility of crude oil prices.
The account was expected to insulate the Nigerian economy from external economic shocks.
The ECA rose from $5.1bn in 2005 to more than $20bn in November 2008, but during the last meeting of the National Economic Council in December 2019, Mrs Zainab Ahmed, minister of Finance, Budget and National Planning, reportedly disclosed that the balance as of November 19, 2019 was $324.98m.
In its latest Nigeria Economic Update, the World Bank warned that a ‘moderate’ decline in oil price could trigger another recession, noting that the exhaustion of the ECA had made the country more vulnerable.
“Fiscal buffers in the Excess Crude Account have been exhausted, rendering Nigeria more vulnerable to shocks,” the bank said.
Noting that the account was mismanaged, the report added, “The ECA has rarely operated as envisaged. When it was established in 2004, it was to be drawn on only when the actual crude oil price falls below the budget benchmark price for three consecutive months.
“However, state governments contended that the federal Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2007 creating the ECA was not binding on state and local governments.”
The World Bank observed that the Sovereign Wealth Fund was established in 2011 by the three tiers of government to serve as the oil savings fund for the country.
The SWF has three components – future generations, infrastructure and stabilisation funds.
The stabilisation fund, like the ECA, was to support federation revenue in times of economic stress.
“It was envisaged that the balance in the ECA in 2011 would be transferred to the SWF.
The World Bank said, “Instead, in 2012 seed capital of only $1.5bn was transferred, plus another $0.5bn in 2017.”
The balance of the Stabilisation Account, reportedly as of December 17, 2019, was N30.5bn, while the Natural Resource Fund held N88.3 at the same date.
The World Bank further observed that Nigeria’s consolidated government revenue was very low by the standards of comparable countries.
“During the commodity boom Nigeria’s consolidated government revenue reached 12 per cent of GDP, among the lowest ratios for structural, aspirational and regional peers.
It said, “After oil price and production shocks and Nigeria’s first recession in over two decades, in 2016 general government revenue plunged to six per cent of GDP – second lowest of 115 countries for which data are available.
“Recovering to eight per cent of GDP in 2018, government revenues are projected to plateau there unless there are significant tax policy and administration reforms.”
The bank warned that the prevailing situation will continue to constrain the budget envelope and limit fiscal space for investing in physical and human capital.
In the absence of fiscal buffers such as the one that was supposed to be provided by the now exhausted ECA, Nigeria risks another recession, due to the country’s dependence on oil, the bank said.
It added, “A moderate decline in oil prices could lead to a recession in Nigeria due to its dependence on oil; the Nigerian economy is highly vulnerable to a drop in oil prices.
“The oil sector remains the dominant source of risk for growth of Nigeria’s economy, with sustained suboptimal policy decisions aggravating the size of the potential impact on the economy.
“For example, a sudden decline in oil prices to 2016 levels, sustained for a year, would undermine growth and fiscal balances and the lack of monetary and fiscal buffers would magnify the impact of any shock to the economy.
“If oil prices dropped again by about 25 per cent, the country could swing into a recession, with a more difficult recovery path.”
Evaluating the possible impact of a temporary decline in oil price, the bank noted that the development could subtract up to 0.5 percentage points from growth.
The report projected, “Yet, the indirect (spillover) effects on external and fiscal balances and the financial sector would be significant, similar to, if not worse, than what happened during the 2016 recession.
“Since the Federal Government’s deficit is already twice the size of Nigeria’s revenues, the fall in fiscal revenues proportionate to the 25 per cent fall in oil prices would virtually eliminate space for infrastructure spending, with obvious long-term repercussions for growth.
“With no fiscal buffers available –the Excess Crude Account balance is less than $0.5bn – and no likelihood of external borrowing as investor confidence drops because of uncertainty over Nigeria’s policy response, deficits would have to be financed domestically, sending the cost of borrowing soaring.
“Because there are no buffers, the nonoil economy could contract by more than in 2016, with the economy as a whole shrinking by more than two per cent.
“Recovery would be slow in the absence of structural reforms, even if the oil price rebounded by about 15 per cent as the global economy recovers.”
However, world oil prices jumped nearly $3 on Friday after the United States killed Qassem Soleimani, Iranian military chief, a development which fanned fresh fears of conflict in the crude oil-rich Middle East.
The international oil benchmark, Brent crude, hit $69.16 per barrel, its highest since September 17, 2019, before easing to $68.81 per barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate surged by $2.03 to $63.21 per barrel, having earlier spiked to $63.84 a barrel, its highest since May 1, 2019
News
Nigeria, Others Lag Behind as Egypt Tops Africa in AI Readiness

Nigeria and other Sub-Saharan Africa countries rank ninth out of nine global regions as Egypt has emerged as Africa’s leading country in artificial intelligence readiness, ranking first on the continent and 51st globally in the 2025 Government AI Readiness Index published by Oxford Insights.

The impressive ranking has been lauded as underscoring North Africa’s growing influence in the global AI race.
According to Egypt’s Ministry of Communications and Information Technology (MCIT), the country scored 57.5 points out of 100, climbing 14 places from 65th in 2024.
The Nile nation also ranked fourth in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, behind Saudi Arabia, Israel and the United Arab Emirates.
The Oxford Insights index assesses 195 governments using 69 indicators across six pillars, including policy capacity, governance, AI infrastructure, public sector adoption, development and diffusion, and resilience.
Egypt topped the Policy Capacity pillar globally with a perfect score of 100, tying with the UK, Serbia and Australia, an indicator of strong national AI policymaking and institutional readiness.
Oxford Insights noted that countries such as Egypt are “expanding the use of AI across national priorities while shaping policies to strengthen domestic AI ecosystems,” although gaps in infrastructure and talent development remain in some contexts.
MCIT minister Amr Talaat attributed Egypt’s strong performance to deliberate government action.
“This achievement reflects our efforts to integrate artificial intelligence into public services and accelerate digital transformation through Egypt’s second National AI Strategy. We are positioning Egypt as a regional AI hub while ensuring AI delivers real economic and social value,” he said.
Launched for 2025–2030, Egypt’s National AI Strategy targets sectors such as healthcare, justice and public administration, while aiming to train 30 000 AI specialists by 2030 and raise AI’s contribution to GDP to 7.7%.
Talaat also highlighted Egypt’s cybersecurity credentials when he highlighted that the country ranked among the top 12 globally in the ITU’s Global Cyber security Index.
Regionally, the results expose sharp contrasts across Africa. Sub-Saharan Africa ranks ninth out of nine global regions, with an average score of 28.04, reflecting persistent gaps in AI infrastructure and public sector adoption.
However, countries such as Kenya, South Africa, Mauritius and Nigeria lead the sub-region, while Rwanda and Ethiopia are gaining momentum through innovation hubs and policy reforms.
In contrast, the MENA region ranks fifth globally, buoyed by significant investment in AI infrastructure and policy capacity, particularly in Gulf states.
News
SERAP Sues INEC Over Alleged ₦55.9Bn Election Funds Diversion

Socio-Economic Rights and Accountability Project (SERAP) has dragged the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to court over the alleged failure to account for ₦55.9 billion reportedly meant for the procurement of election materials for the 2019 general elections.

The grave allegations are documented in the latest annual report published by the Auditor-General on 9 September 2025.
In the suit number FHC/ABJ/CS/38/2026 filed last Friday at the Federal High Court in Abuja, SERAP is seeking: “an order of mandamus to direct and compel INEC to account for the missing or diverted N55.9 billion meant to buy smart card readers, ballot papers, and other election materials for the 2019 general elections.”
SERAP is also seeking: “an order of mandamus to direct and compel INEC to disclose the names of all contractors paid the N55.9 billion for the procurement of smart card readers, ballot papers, result sheets, and other election materials for the 2019 general elections, including the names of their directors and shareholders.”
In the suit, SERAP is arguing that: “INEC must operate without corruption if the commission is to ensure free and fair elections in the country and uphold Nigerians’ right to participation.”
SERAP is also arguing that, “INEC cannot ensure impartial administration of future elections if these allegations are not satisfactorily addressed, perpetrators including the contractors involved are not prosecuted and the proceeds of corruption are not fully recovered.”
According to SERAP, “INEC cannot properly carry out its constitutional and statutory responsibilities to conduct free and fair elections in the country if it continues to fail to uphold the basic principles of transparency, accountability and the rule of law.”
SERAP is also arguing that, “These allegations also constitute abuse of public office and show the urgent need by INEC to commit to transparency, accountability, clean governance and the rule of law.”
SERAP also said, “Allegations of corruption in the supply of smart card readers, ballot papers, result sheets and other election materials directly undermine Nigerians’ right to participate in elections that are free, fair, transparent, and credible.”
The lawsuit filed on behalf of SERAP by its lawyers, Kolawole Oluwadare, Kehinde Oyewumi, and Andrew Nwankwo, read in part: “These grim allegations by the Auditor-General suggest a grave violation of the public trust, the Nigerian Constitution 1999 [as amended] and international anticorruption standards.”
“According to the recently published 2022 audited report by the Auditor General of the Federation (AGF), the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) ‘irregularly paid’ over N5.3 billion [N5,312,238,499.39] ‘to a contractor for the supply of Smart Card Readers for the 2019 general elections’.
“The contract was awarded without prior approval from the Bureau of Public Procurement (BPP) and the Federal Executive Council. The payment was also ‘made without any document. There was no evidence of supplies to the commission.’”
News
FG Inaugurates N40Bn CCTV Control Centre for Third Mainland Bridge

Federal government has inaugurated a ₦40 billion closed-circuit television (CCTV) control centre for the Third Mainland Bridge in Lagos.

Speaking at the inauguration on Sunday, David Umahi, minister of Works, said the project followed extensive rehabilitation works carried out on the bridge after the current administration took office in 2023.
“When we came on board in 2023, we met a very terrible Third Mainland Bridge,” Umahi said, adding that the structure, along with Carter and Iddo bridges, required comprehensive re-evaluation and repairs both above and below water level.
He said President Bola Tinubu approved the total rehabilitation of the bridge, including replacement of expansion joints, noting that the completed work had improved driving conditions and extended the bridge’s lifespan.
Umahi said the CCTV system, first announced in 2025, was designed to curb dangerous driving, prevent suicide attempts and strengthen security.
He added that security personnel would monitor live footage from the control centre and enforce speed limits on the bridge.
The minister commended the China Civil Engineering Construction Corporation (CCECC), which executed the project, for what he described as high-quality delivery. He said the contract also included a surveillance boat and two Hilux vans, which would be handed over to the police to support monitoring and rapid response.
“The idea is that we can see everything that is happening on the bridge,” Umahi said, expressing concern over excessive speeding and urging motorists to comply with traffic regulations.
Earlier, Olufemi Dare, federal controller of works in Lagos, said the facility was the first of its kind on any bridge in Nigeria.
He said the system allows real-time monitoring of activities on the bridge and surrounding waters.
Dare said the project includes 240 solar panels, 10 inverters, a 300 KVA transformer, a standby generator, multiple monitoring screens and full air-conditioning for the control centre.
He added that the contract also covers 1,268 solar-powered street lights and a borehole facility.
According to Dare, the project was awarded at a cost of ₦40.17 billion, with about ₦36 billion paid so far to the contractor. He said the current inauguration marked the first phase, with additional commissioning planned once work on the bridge’s extension is completed.
He thanked the president for approving the project and praised Umahi for ensuring due process during its execution.
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