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Insecurity and Soaring Food Prices: Why CBN’s MPC Must Target the Real Enemy Despite Favourable Macroeconomic Tailwinds

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By Blaise Udunze

Obviously, one would say that the macroeconomic indicators are finally pointing in the right direction, yet, daily realities for households and businesses tell a very different story because Nigeria stands at a delicate intersection. No doubt on paper, inflation is easing, the naira is stabilising, and sovereign ratings have improved; but food prices remain painfully high, purchasing power continues to deteriorate, and insecurity is ravaging the agricultural value chain while ensuring that any progress in inflation moderation remains fragile.

As the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) convenes its 303rd Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) as its final meeting of the year on 24-25 November, the dilemma before it is clear: Should it respond to improving macroeconomic data with further monetary easing, or should it recognise that the true enemy of price stability is not merely monetary but structural, deeply rooted in insecurity and collapsing food supply?

The reality confronting the nation is that, despite the favourable macroeconomic tailwinds, Nigeria’s biggest inflationary threat is insecurity-induced food inflation, which remains largely unaddressed. Until the MPC anchors its decisions around this core challenge, monetary policy will continue to chase shadows.

A Fall in Inflation, but Not in Hardship

The National Bureau of Statistics’ latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report revealed that inflation improved for the second consecutive month, falling sharply from 18.02 percent in September to 16.05 percent in October 2025, which is the lowest in 44 months. This moderation was driven by a new CPI base year and some easing in food prices.

Whilst the headline inflation has slowed, month-on-month inflation increased from 0.72 percent to 0.93 percent, underlining persistent price pressure at the household level. Nigerians are still struggling to pay more for food, transport, energy, housing, and essential services.

Obviously, the Organised Private Sector (OPS) welcomed the drop but quickly cautioned that it does not reflect real-life conditions.

Dr. Muda Yusuf, CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, summarised this contradiction perfectly, “The sharp moderation in October inflation represents a significant win for macroeconomic stability. However, the full welfare benefits are yet to be felt due to persistent structural constraints, especially in food supply, transportation, energy, housing, and essential services.”

These “structural constraints,” in reality, are overwhelmingly traced to insecurity, which is the silent force disrupting agricultural production and distribution across Nigeria.

Food Inflation: The Heart of the Crisis

Presently, food inflation remains Nigeria’s most damaging and persevering price problem. Even with the October headline easing, food prices remain abnormally high.

Eke Ubiji, the Director-General of the Nigerian Association of Small and Medium Enterprises (NASME), flagged the inflation data as disconnected from reality, “Send people to the market now. A half-bag of rice goes for between N30,000 and N40,000. Before, a full bag was about N20,000. So, are we moving forward or backwards?”

This is not a mere anecdote; it is the lived experience of millions. Food inflation has remained structurally high for nearly five years, and the root cause is not monetary expansion; it is insecurity.

Across key food-producing belts like Benue, Plateau, Niger, Kaduna, Katsina, Zamfara, Taraba, Kebbi, and Sokoto, farmers cannot access farmlands due to the following adverse factors:

–       Banditry

–       Terrorist attacks

–       Herdsmen conflicts

–       Kidnapping-for-ransom

–       Destruction of crops and storage facilities

–       Extortion and illegal “harvest taxes” by criminal groups

This is why the MPC’s decisions, no matter how sound, have limited impact. Monetary tightening cannot stop gunmen from attacking farmers. Interest rate adjustments cannot clear gridlocked rural roads. Liquidity controls cannot fix the collapse of rural markets emptied by chaos.

Femi Egbesola, the President of the Association of Small Business Owners of Nigeria, echoes this lived tension, “All of this has not translated to tangible results in the lives of households and small businesses. It has been very tough, and it is even getting tougher.”

Without resolving insecurity, food inflation will continue to undermine every macroeconomic gain.

OPS: Nigerians Don’t Feel the Relief

Across all private-sector groups, one message is constant, inflation numbers are falling, but hardship remains high.

–       SMEs are shutting down due to high input costs.

–       Consumers’ purchasing power is collapsing.

–       Operational costs remain higher.

–       Food remains largely unaffordable.

According to Ubiji, there is no relationship between what is sustainable in the market and what they are quoting in their boardrooms.

This scepticism is rooted in the fact that food prices, by far the largest part of household spending, remain stubbornly high because insecurity continues to decimate supply.

Even the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) recognized that while there are “green shoots,” they are small and fragile.

LCCI President, Gabriel Idahosa, said, “A trend is being established… but Nigerians often doubt the inflation numbers because they do not see it on their dining table.”

The MPC must confront this reality: monetary policy cannot deliver price stability while insecurity is simultaneously destroying food production.

Improving Macroeconomic Indicators: A Window of Opportunity

Apparently, Nigeria’s macroeconomic fundamentals have improved significantly as inflation is moderating, FX liquidity is rising, the naira is strengthening, non-oil exports are growing, domestic production of refined petroleum is improving, S&P upgraded Nigeria’s sovereign credit outlook, and GDP grew by 4.2 percent in Q2 and is projected to record 3.6-3.9 percent in Q3.

No doubt, these are important achievements that create fiscal and monetary space for reforms. But favourable indicators cannot cover the fact that Nigeria is still battling a food inflation crisis fueled by worsening insecurity. If the MPC does not align its policy response with this structural reality, monetary policy may remain misaligned with on-ground economic forces.

What Analysts Expect at the November MPC Meeting

Ahead of the MPC meeting, analysts remain divided. Some are calling for further easing. Umar Abdulqadir of CFG Africa believed the MPC should cut by at least 50bps, citing sustained disinflation, improved FX liquidity, better food supply conditions, and lower risk premia after S&P upgrade. He argued that high lending rates were constraining SME credit access and that a cut would “stimulate investment and bolster economic recovery.”

Similarly, Afrinvest’s Damilare Asimiyu projects a 25-50bps cut, citing favourable inflation trajectory, improved macro data, global central banks adopting mild dovish tones, and strong GDP growth. He believes cautious easing is justified.

Meanwhile, other analysts suggest a hold at 27 percent. Jessica Ifada of Rostrum Investment & Securities insists that the MPC should maintain September’s rate cuts, which are still filtering through the economy. CRR reduction has increased bank liquidity, and banks have largely met recapitalisation thresholds, while festive-season inflationary pressures are imminent.  She further says that the revised policy corridor already guides short-term rates close to the MPR, limiting the need for immediate policy action.

Meanwhile, another set of analysts is calling for aggressive easing (up to 200bps). On Nairametrics’ “Drinks and Mics,” Rencap Asset Management’s Arnold Dublin-Green and Nairametrics CEO Ugodre Obi-Chukwu argue that MPC should cut rates by 200bps, pointing to decreasing yields across fixed-income instruments, lower inflation, and improved macro stability.

But Here Is the Real Issue: Monetary Policy Cannot Fix Insecurity

Regardless of the MPC’s decision, whether it cuts by 50bps, 200bps, or holds, Nigeria’s biggest inflationary threat remains structural insecurity. Three facts are undeniable:

1. Over 60 percent of Nigeria’s inflation is driven by food inflation

2. Food inflation is overwhelmingly driven by insecurity in farming communities.

3. No monetary policy tool like MPR, CRR, OMO, or interest-rate corridor can resolve insecurity.

Until Nigeria secures its food-producing regions:

–       Farmers will stay away from farmlands.

–       Food supply will remain inadequate.

–       Transport costs will remain elevated.

–       Market prices will continue to rise.

–       Inflation will remain structurally high.

The MPC can only do so much with macro tools. The real work lies in addressing the insecurity choking Nigeria’s food supply chain.

What the MPC Must Do Differently

1. Overtly recognize insecurity as a core inflation driver

The MPC must move beyond generic references to “structural challenges” and specifically identify insecurity as the primary threat to price stability.

2. Collaborate with security agencies and governors

Price stability is impossible without coordinated policy across security, agriculture, and transportation ministries.

3. Recommend federal and state investments in food-producing regions, such as:

–       Secured farming clusters

–       Military-protected agro-corridors

–       Subsidised insurance for farmers in high-risk zones

–       Rural road rehabilitation

4. Prioritise credit schemes for agricultural security because credit without safety is meaningless.

5. Strengthen data collaboration

Many inflation-relevant data points, including farm output, rural insecurity, and transport disruptions, are outside the CBN’s traditional purview. It needs deeper data integration with:

–       Ministry of Agriculture

–       Ministry of Interior

–       Security agencies

–       State governments

–       Farmer associations

The MPC Must Fight the Real Enemy

Nigeria’s improving macroeconomic metrics are encouraging, but they shade a deeper crisis. Structural insecurity choking the nation’s food supply remains as the true enemy of price stability is not monetary. The MPC cannot continue to focus exclusively on interest rates while overlooking the underlying forces driving food inflation. Until insecurity is tackled, Nigeria will continue to experience high food prices, collapsing purchasing power, SME closures, persistent inflation, and monetary policy disorganization.

The November meeting provides a historic opportunity for the MPC to shift its policy approach that recognises insecurity as a macroeconomic crisis, not a security issue alone.

Nigeria does not merely have a monetary policy problem. Nigeria has a food problem driven by insecurity. And until that problem is solved, macroeconomic gains will remain fragile and incomplete.

Blaise, a journalist and PR professional, writes from Lagos, can be reached via: [email protected]


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Madonna University Taps Tech Guru Adote for Strategic Board Role

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Technology strategist Rock Adote has been appointed to the Board of Trustees of Madonna University Nigeria, a move expected to strengthen the institution’s push toward digital governance and modern technological systems in higher education.

L-r: Professor Martin Osita Anagboso, deputy vice chancellor, Madaonna University in a handshake with Rock Adote, newly appointed member of the Board of Trustees of the University

Madonna University

Adote, who has built a reputation in cybersecurity, enterprise identity management and digital transformation, brings over a decade of experience in designing secure digital infrastructure and managing identity systems for organizations.

Stakeholders believe his expertise will support the university’s efforts to strengthen data security and modernize its academic and administrative digital frameworks.

The appointment reflects the university’s growing commitment to technology-driven leadership as institutions increasingly rely on digital systems for academic operations, data management and research collaboration.

Universities today manage large volumes of sensitive digital information, including student records, research data and staff credentials, making strong cybersecurity and identity management frameworks essential.

As a member of the Board of Trustees, Adote will participate in providing institutional oversight and guiding strategic policy direction for the university.

The board is responsible for safeguarding academic standards while steering long-term development initiatives and ensuring the institution remains responsive to evolving global trends in education and technology.

Industry observers say Adote’s background in enterprise digital systems positions him to contribute significantly to the university’s digital transformation agenda, particularly in strengthening technological resilience and governance frameworks across its operations.

Other newly appointed members of the board include Sir Nwagwu Aloysius Emeka, Chief Arthur Obi Okafor (SAN), Professor Anagboso Martin Osita, Mrs. Ike Angela Unaoaku, Barrister Augustine Nenwa Obo and Rev. Fr. Stephen Ifeanyichukwu Nwatah.

Speaking on the appointment, Adote expressed appreciation for the opportunity to serve, emphasizing the importance of aligning higher education institutions with emerging technological realities.
According to him,

“Digital transformation will play a crucial role in shaping the future of academic administration, research and learning environments”.

Analysts note that the inclusion of technology leaders in university governance structures signals a growing recognition that digital transformation is becoming central to the competitiveness and sustainability of modern higher education institutions.

With Adote’s appointment, Madonna University is expected to further strengthen its technology strategy and position itself as a forward-looking institution within Nigeria’s higher education landscape.


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Healthcare Under Attack: Why Cybersecurity is Now Critical Care

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By: Kerissa Varma, Microsoft Chief Security Advisor, Africa

Africa’s healthcare sector is facing a silent emergency. Many healthcare operators, facilities and doctors across Africa already grapple with the challenges of under-resourced environments, an uneven distribution of resources and massive demand for services.

Healthcare Under Attack: Why Cybersecurity is Now Critical Care

Kerissa Varma, Microsoft Chief Security Advisor, Africa

Now healthcare administrators must turn their attention to a relatively new and extremely urgent concern. While doctors fight to save lives, cybercriminals are infiltrating hospitals, laboratories, and clinics, turning life-saving environments into digital battlegrounds.

A growing epidemic

World Health Organisation director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus noted that the digital transformation of healthcare, combined with the high value of health data, has made the sector a prime target for cybercriminals, commenting that “At best, these attacks cause disruption and financial loss. At worst, they undermine trust in the health systems on which people depend, and even cause patient harm and death.”

Recent attacks have exposed the fragility of Africa’s medical infrastructure. In May 2025, Mediclinic Southern Africa was hit by a cyber extortion attack, compromising sensitive HR data. Later in 2025, Lancet Laboratories faced a regulatory penalty for failing to notify patients about data breaches under South Africa’s POPIA law, while a ransomware strike on the National Health Laboratory Service disrupted blood test processing nationwide, delaying critical care for millions.

M-Tiba, a Kenyan digital health platform managed by CarePay and backed by Safaricom, suffered a significant cyberattack and data breach in late 2025, while earlier this year Pharmacie.ma, a Moroccan pharmaceutical platform, was reportedly the target of an alleged data leak incident that allegedly involved the unauthorised export of a customer database. And recent research indicates that Nigeria’s private healthcare sector is now one of the most targeted on the African continent, with attacks increasing at an alarming rate.

Many incidents also go unreported, as hospitals and healthcare facilities rarely disclose them publicly, yet these incidents are not isolated, with ransomware dominating the threat landscape. Africa’s healthcare sector is heavily targeted by cybercriminals, with healthcare organisations facing an average of 3,575 weekly attacks in 2025, a 38% surge from the previous year, with encryption of patient data, temporary loss of access to hospital systems and the risk of data appearing on the dark web cited as potential impacts.

Why healthcare is a prime target

The healthcare industry in Africa, particularly in the public sector, is working with legacy systems, fragmented infrastructure, and underfunded IT teams, all of which combine to make the sector an easy target for unscrupulous bad actors.

Many medical institutions are adopting open-source AI tools for diagnostics and patient management. While cost-effective, these platforms often lack enterprise-grade security, leaving sensitive data exposed. Combined with fragmented storage of paper and electronic patient records – often unencrypted and scattered across multiple systems – the risk of breaches multiplies.

Hospitals and healthcare facilities cannot afford downtime. Every minute offline risks lives, making them more likely to pay ransoms in an attempt to regain control of their systems. Cyber insurers  indicate that in 2 of 5 cases of a ransom being paid, data and operations still cannot be recovered. Additionally, in instances where some or all of the seized data is recovered after paying a ransom, the attacker goes on to request further payments.

Medical records are also a premium target for cybercriminals. In the USA, researchers found that patient records, insurance details, and research data fetch premium prices on the dark web – up to 10 times higher than financial data, according to cybersecurity analysts. A single stolen medical record can sell for $260–$310, compared to $30–$50 for a credit card, because unlike credit cards, medical records never expire and medical information cannot be easily changed, making it useful for years. Medical records frequently include personal identifiers, insurance details, and sometimes biometric data, enabling identity theft and fraud, while criminals use medical data for fake insurance claims, prescription fraud, and targeted scams. Microsoft believes cybersecurity needs to be embedded into every technology implementation. This should be a key priority, especially with sensitive medical data and operations.

How healthcare can use modern technology safely

As Africa’s healthcare systems digitise and embrace AI, protecting the digital lifeline must become as critical as protecting the physical one. Key steps can secure healthcare organisations and facilities like laboratories and diagnostic services’ systems.

Include cybersecurity in your resilience planning

Medical professionals and healthcare facilities often prioritise the resilience of physical capabilities. Power backups, multiple devices should equipment fail, and a standby roster in the event of a practitioner being unavailable are all practices that save lives. Equally cybersecurity and safeguarding online systems needs to be built into the overall resilience planning of medical facilities and services.

Investing in cybersecurity technology that can quickly identify and contain attacker activity before it leads to system downtime or data theft can save lives. Having a response plan that is practiced and maintained in the event of a cyber breach and ensuring strong data backups could mean the difference between a total failure of health services or a minor incident. Ensuring incident response plans are aligned with local compliance laws such as South Africa’s POPIA, and Kenya and Nigeria’s Data Protection Acts is critical for healthcare providers to meet both their resilience and compliance objectives.

Prepare for AI-driven attacks that are going to increase attacker speed and success

Threat actors are increasingly exploiting the interconnectedness of modern software ecosystems and operational structures to conduct malicious activity, so regular auditing of third-party integrations, especially those involving AI or cloud services, is critical.

Adversaries are using AI to scale and tailor operations, with AI-driven phishing being 4.5x more effective than traditional phishing. However, in equal measure, AI is transforming cyber defence – it automates response and containment, detects threats faster and more accurately, and identifies detection gaps and adapts to attacker behaviour. Healthcare organisations should invest in AI-driven threat detection for faster response and anomaly detection and must also take steps to secure AI models and data pipelines by implementing robust access controls, vulnerability scanning, and regular patching for open-source tools.

Remote and wider access to patient records requires strong identity practices

As both patients and medical professionals start accessing patient records digitally, strong means of identification, verification and authentication are critical. The Microsoft Digital Defense Report 2025 notes that the abuse of valid accounts is a frequent occurrence, with malicious actors gaining access to user credentials (usernames and passwords) and using them to infiltrate systems without triggering traditional security alerts. Therefore, organisations must deploy phishing-resistant multifactor authentication (MFA) and conditional access to strengthen user defences.

Invest in people and skills

People are at the heart of robust cybersecurity measures, so it is vital to train staff against common tactics such as phishing, which is the most common entry point for attackers, and apply role-based access controls for both clinical and research data to prevent privilege misuse.

Cybersecurity is no longer an IT issue – it’s a patient safety issue. Healthcare services and providers must treat digital resilience with the same urgency as infection control. By investing in comprehensive cybersecurity strategies and leveraging AI-powered defences, Africa’s healthcare sector can position itself as a crucial front line against emerging threats and help build stronger, more resilient digital ecosystems.


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South Africa’s Nomzamo Mbatha Appears on Glo-Sponsored African Voices

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Globally recognized South African actress Nomzamo Mbatha will feature on this week’s edition of African Voices Changemakers, the 30 minute show on Cable News Network International (CNN).

In this episode of the Glo-sponsored programme, Mbatha sits down with CNN’s Larry Madowo for an exclusive conversation while filming the final season of the hit television series Shaka iLembe. The interview was recorded at the historic Cradle of Humankind outside Johannesburg, where she reflects on her career and the legacy she hopes to build beyond the screen.

As her international profile continues to rise, Mbatha has appeared in two Hollywood productions and was named to the prestigious TIME100 Next list in 2025, which celebrates emerging global leaders shaping the future. She is also making strides in the beauty industry as the first South African woman to secure endorsement deals with global skincare brand Neutrogena and haircare brand Cream of Nature.

Mbatha also shares the cultural importance of Shaka iLembe, her journey from South Africa to the global stage, and why giving back remains central to the enduring contribution she aims to leave behind.

The programme will air on Saturday at 8.30 a.m., with additional broadcasts at 12.00 p.m. the same day; Sunday at 4.30 a.m. and 6.00 p.m.; Monday at 3.00 a.m. and 5.45 p.m.; and Tuesday at 5.45 p.m. It will also air again on Saturday, March 14 at 7.30 a.m. and 11.00 a.m.; Sunday, March 15 at 3.30 a.m. and 6.00 a.m.; and Monday, March 16 at 3.00 a.m.

 


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