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Naira stable after CBN interest rate cut

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By Lukman Otunuga, FXTM Research Analyst,

The Naira continues to experience stability despite an unexpected rate cut from the Central Bank of Nigeria earlier this week.

This is highly encouraging and suggests that the currency has scope to appreciate if macroeconomic conditions in Nigeria stabilize further. With the jump in Brent Oil prices boosting government revenues and pushing foreign exchange reserves to $44 billion, the CBN has ammunition to defend the currency. However, external risks in the form of global growth concerns and trade developments could still create headwinds for the Naira further down the road. It must be kept in mind that the Naira is not alone, as many other emerging market currencies are also feeling the pressure.

Brexit stalemate deepens as Parliament rejects all alternatives

The drama, confusion and sheer uncertainty over Brexit intensified on Wednesday evening, after British MPs rejected all eight options aimed at breaking the Brexit deadlock.

With none of the indicative votes gaining a majority, the options in moving forward are becoming increasingly limited, with speculation in the air of a general election down the line. While MPs plan to trim the list of options and vote again on Monday, the clock is ticking with the risk of a no-deal Brexit rising by the day. Although Theresa May has pledged to stand down by May 22 if MPs back her plan, it remains uncertain whether Commons Speaker John Bercow will allow her deal to be brought forward for the third time on Friday. If May’s deal is rejected once again and Parliament is unable to agree on anything, the UK could slip into a no-deal Brexit which will have severe consequences on the British Pound.

Sterling tumbled on Wednesday evening as Brexit uncertainty haunted investor attraction towards the currency. However, looking at Sterling’s overall price action, it does feel like the risk over a no-deal Brexit is underpriced. The year-to-date uptrend for GBPUSD is still intact despite the twist and turns. There have been higher highs and higher lows so far in 2019 with prices trading around 1.3162 as of writing. While the GBPUSD has the potential to challenge the 1.3300 resistance, further gains beyond this point are likely to be limited by Brexit developments.

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Dollar running on borrowed time

Even as markets heed the Fed’s dovish tone and have ramped up expectations of a US rate cut as soon as September, the Dollar Index has repeatedly tried to break above the 97.0 handle.

Although the Dollar has been resilient in recent months, it may be time for bulls to throw in the towel as concerns mount over the health of the US economy. With the US Treasury yield curve inverting at the start of the week, warning lights are flashing over the largest economy in the world potentially entering a recession. These lingering fears are likely to dampen appetite for the Dollar as investors park their money elsewhere.

Should there be further confirmation of the largest economy in the world cooling or the Fed remaining firmly dovish, the Dollar may lose its grip on the throne.

Commodity spotlight – Gold

It has not been the best of trading weeks for Gold, with prices trading around $1311 as of writing. Although a stabilizing Dollar during the early parts of the week dragged the metal lower, the medium to longer-term outlook favours bulls. With global growth fears and geopolitical risks weighing on investor confidence and market sentiment, Gold will remain a destination of safety for investors. In regards to the technical picture, bulls remain in control above the psychological $1300 with a breakout above $1313 opening a path towards $1324.

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Ugo Onwuaso is an ICT enthusiast. He believes technology should be used for general good. He holds a Master of Public Administration (MPA) degree from the Lagos state University. Dear Reader, Your support matters. But we believe that technology makes life more exciting and helps improve the lives of people around Nigeria and indeed the world. That is why, we have devoted our energy to independent reportage of technology and finance and how they affect lives. Our incisive and analytical view of how technology news affects the daily life help individuals and organizations make up their minds. Quality journalism costs money. Today, we're asking that you support us to do more. Kindly support our effort to deliver technology and finance journalism to everyone in the world. Donate as little as N1,000. Bank transfers can be made to: UBA Plc 1017156876 Communication Week Media Ltd

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Defending the foundations for connectivity

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By Engr. Gbenga Adebayo

In 2001, when the first GSM call was made in Nigeria how many of us would have envisaged the digital world that we live in today? The pace of growth and the rate of adoption of telecoms solutions in Nigeria has been revolutionary. It is a globally acknowledged case study that we should be proud of and a clear demonstration of what can be achieved.

Almost all of us today are reliant on the network connectivity that it has enabled in different shapes and forms. From the simple need to communicate with loved ones, to the digital platforms that enable our access to and consumption of entertainment, financial products and other critical services. Our reliance on these systems is becoming more and more acute, whether it is citizens, governments, or corporations. System downtime is increasingly disruptive and offline manual redundancies are often in the advanced stages of being phased out. The pace of this transition is not slowing down. With the core infrastructure in place, innovation is driving the exponential growth of services that ride on it. From the fully adopted social media that has changed the way we interact, to the emerging Artificial Intelligence (AI) revolution.

While this innovation is enabling exciting new possibilities, there is a tendency to focus on those opportunities, to the detriment of the core infrastructure on which it rides. It is imperative that we retain a focus on the optimisation of that infrastructure and enable continued investment in its development. We have seen how the transition from 2G, through to 3G, 4G and 5G have each enabled the development of more and more sophisticated solutions.

The continued development of core infrastructure has to be sustainable, and over the last few months we have begun to see the challenges that the operators that provide it are facing. Both MTN and Airtel have declared significant foreign exchange (FX) losses in Nigeria, and the stress is not linked to them alone. The entire ecosystem is battling with a range of challenges that must be addressed. If we fail to do so, the downstream impact on innovation will be severe. Telecoms infrastructure requires a base level of investment to maintain its current capabilities, and significant additional investment to expand and grow. It is capital intensive and that capital has to be generated through sustainable business models.

At the heart of the challenge the industry faces is the issue of rising costs. Recent financial losses are directly linked to the cost of operating towers that rely on inputs like diesel, which have increased significantly as the Naira has depreciated. The provisions large telecom companies have had to make, and the consequent losses and impact on their reserves is a red flag. It tells us that business as usual is not sustainable. If we continue as we are, then those companies will struggle to continue to invest in and maintain existing services.

But those costs are not the only challenge. General cost inflation, multiple taxation, regular and damaging vandalisation of infrastructure and the costs associated with regulatory compliance all help contribute to the high cost of operations. We cannot continue to follow a path that asks those companies to simply accept those rising costs. It is no longer sustainable, and we have reached an inflection point.

This is a critical moment for the industry. How we approach and resolve it will define the future of Nigeria’s digital economy. If you want to be able to enjoy the benefits that digitisation brings. If we want the infrastructure that enables AI and helps us drive growth, then we must take action now.

Cost-reflective tariffs, like it or not, are simply non-negotiable. We have seen the impact of price controls in other segments of the economy, like power. If providers cannot operate sustainable business models, then they stop investing. When that happens, the existing infrastructure starts to crumble. For power, a consumer can choose to take ownership of the solution by buying a generator, or a solar panel. For fuel, the government can step in as the provider of last resort and manage a subsidy regime that mitigates the impact on the population. Those options are not available in the telecoms sector. There is no self-help solution.

We fully understand and appreciate the financial stress that Nigerians are experiencing today. The cost of living is the single most significant factor in most people’s daily lives. But those people are still able to enjoy the benefits that connectivity brings, at the price they paid before these challenges became so acute. Imagine a future in which the gains of the last twenty years are reversed. Nigeria, and Nigerians simply cannot afford it. The pain that we would feel under those circumstances would be exponentially worse.

We need to find a long-term, sustainable and manageable solution to this problem. Prices will need to rise, but action needs to be taken in a measured way, through sustainable conversations and partnership with the government. It is time to address this head on.

Engr. Gbenga Adebayo is the Chairman, Association of Licensed Telecoms Operators of Nigeria (ALTON)


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LCCI Urges FG to Simplify Trade Procedures to Boost Economy

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The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) has said that the government needs to simplify and harmonize trade procedures and address bottlenecks in order to boost economic growth in the country.

President of LCCI, Mr. Gabriel Idahosa, gave the charge at a Quarterly media briefing on the State of the Economy yesterday in Lagos.

He said that the government has to create an atmosphere that promotes export growth and competitiveness, which is projected to boost export earnings, raise domestic revenue, improve citizens’ welfare, and increase business productivity.

“We recommend that reforms must include simplifying and harmonizing trade procedures as well as addressing bottlenecks such as port logistics, congestion, and transportation costs. This is expected to position the country as the commercial centre of the region and a springboard into regional value chains,” he stated.

On managing the persistent high inflation, the LCCI president said both monetary and fiscal authorities should focus on the factors driving the inflation rates by tackling the supply-side deficiencies instead of focusing too much attention on the demand-side management.

“We urge the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to continue with its foreign exchange (forex) market reforms with intense discipline, as the high exchange rate against the naira is a major driver of the skyrocketing inflation rates.”

Idahosa acknowledged the improvement in the naira exchange rate in the last few days, moving towards the level of N1000 per dollar or lower.

“CBN needs to sustain its policy and regulatory reforms in the FX market, adopt policies that would attract more FX inflow into the economy as well as build market confidence in the performance of the FX market,” he added.

 


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Dufil Takes Donation of Indomie Noodles Cartons to Vulnerable Communities in Abuja and Environ

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In line with its commitment to provide critical support to indigent members of communities around the country in the face of the ongoing economic challenges, Dufil Prima Foods Limited, makers of Indomie Instant Noodles, in partnership with Golan Helps Abuja Food Bank Initiative (GHAFBI) and Meluibe Foundation on Wednesday, April 17 distributed Indomie noodles cartons to vulnerable communities in Kuje and Kubwa Local Government Areas in Abuja.

With the goal of alleviating hunger and supporting communities across Nigeria, Indomie Instant Noodles has committed to donating a substantial quantity of noodle packs to various NGOs working tirelessly to address food insecurity.

These organizations play a crucial role in reaching remote and underserved areas, ensuring that nutritious meals reach those who need them most.

“We are deeply committed to making a positive impact in the communities where we operate,” said Olusola Olayinka Idowu OON, former Permanent Secretary, Budget and National Planning, and the CEO/Founder of GHAFBI.

“At GHAFBI, we believe that everyone deserves access to wholesome and nourishing food. Our partnership with Dufil Prima Foods to donate Indomie Noodles packs is a big step towards addressing food insecurity and supporting vulnerable communities in Abuja”, said Idowu who was also the former National Conveyor, UN Food System Dialogues in Nigeria.

Speaking in the same vein, Obialunanma Nnaobi-Ayodele, Executive Director, The Meluibe Empowerment Foundation, expressed her gratitude to Indomie Noodles for the partnership. “Our vision as an NGO is to change the world one step at a time, by providing relief and support to vulnerable communities.

This is achieved through collaborations and partnerships, one of which is what we have done with Indomie Noodles. We remain grateful for their support through this food relief initiative”, she said.

By partnering with NGOs, Indomie Instant Noodles works closely with local leaders and community heads in directly engaging with rural communities to distribute noodle packs and provide immediate relief to families facing hunger and ensuring that food assistance reaches those who are most in need, especially in hard-to-reach areas.

“We are grateful for the opportunity to collaborate with NGOs and community leaders to make a meaningful difference in the lives of people facing food insecurity”, said Temitope Ashiwaju, Group Corporate Communications and Events Manager, Dufil Prima Foods Limited. “Together, we bring hope, love and relief for all”.

The community leaders and some of the beneficiaries also expressed their immense gratitude to Indomie for the support, stressing the impact the products donated will have in alleviating hunger in their communities.

Speaking at the outreach centre, His Royal Highness, Muhammed D. Jibril, Community Leader of Gbazango Community in Kubwa Local Government Area said: “I am very grateful to Indomie Noodles for coming to our aid in these challenging times. I pray for more expansion and growth for the business and may God bless Indomie Noodles”.

Other communities who benefited from the product donations include Wunmi, Tondo, Godoji and Shazhi communities in Kuje Area Council of Abuja.

Dufil Prima Food’s donation of Indomie Noodle packs underscores its commitment to corporate social responsibility and its dedication to supporting communities in need. By providing essential food relief, Dufil Prima Foods is contributing to the well-being and resilience of vulnerable populations in Nigeria.

Indomie Instant Noodles remains dedicated to bringing joy to mealtimes and making a positive impact in communities around the world.


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