Connect with us

E-Financial

Nigeria Rate Cut on the Horizon as Global Monetary Easing Cycle Gains Momentum

Published

on

Kindly share this post

By Lukman Otunuga, Senior Research Analyst at FXTM

Unfavorable macroeconomic conditions across the globe have prompted major central banks to embark on a monetary easing cycle to counter a global slowdown.

There is widespread speculation that the US Federal Reserve intends to trim interest rates in order to prevent an economic deceleration in the world’s largest economy. The global financial markets have reacted positively to the idea, which theoretically makes access to funding for business activities easier, boosting investor sentiment and economic growth. The US central bank’s caution is influencing other central banks like the European Central Bank, Bank of England and Reserve Bank of Australia among many others. In Africa, the South African Reserve Bank has already cut interest rates while the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is turning dovish amid deteriorating economic conditions in the wake of trade disputes.

However, in its July meeting, the CBN decided to keep its Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) unchanged at 13.5 percent to allow time for the full impact of other measures. So far, these include a firm bank directive from July requiring 60 percent of deposits to be available for lending to the real economy instead of buying government securities. These securities are high yield because of the current 13.5 percent MPR and understandably attractive to the banking sector seeking stable investments of their own. Making sure money is in circulation instead of being tied up in government bonds sounds like a rational way to keep the economy on the road to recovery.

After surprising markets with an unexpected rate cut in March, the central bank could cut interest rates again during the second half of 2019. However, reducing the MPR when the inflation rate is already at 11.22 percent risks further overheating prices. Like many other emerging economies, Nigeria may be exposed to the impacts of a global slowdown but its economy is very different to the US’ which is currently experiencing anemic price inflation. This may be why the CBN decided to prioritize reducing inflation to single digits and said it is in no hurry to reduce its key rate. In other effects, foreign investment in Nigeria is likely to see benefits from the CBN’s decision to hold rates at 13.5 percent. This is based on the argument that international investors may be looking for higher-yield securities than those in the mature markets, especially in the light of declining or negative interest rate environments in Europe and the US.

The global monetary easing bandwagon has affected the oil markets differently from global equities. Instead of being heartened by the prospect of better lending rates, investors are focusing on the weaker global outlook for growth and Oil demand. The fact that OPEC decided to maintain its supply cuts until 2020 on the basis of weaker demand for Oil only reinforces the impression that it would take a dramatic event to reignite supply-shortage fears. In addition, the US Oil industry is pumping output at record levels, meaning that OPEC supply cuts are effectively neutralized in terms of boosting Oil prices. These circumstances have pressured Oil price benchmarks, West Texas Intermediary (WTI) and Brent Crude. Oil prices depreciated during the course of July, pulled back by a reverse tide of lower growth expectations.

The third quarter holds the potential for the Central Bank of Nigeria to cut interest rates. A fragile economic recovery coupled with external risks in the form of trade tensions and Oil price volatility should encourage the CBN to re-join the global monetary easing bandwagon. Although a rate cut is in the pipeline, the level of inflation will determine how many times the CBN pulls the trigger on rate cuts. Signs of easing inflationary pressures during the third and fourth quarter of 2019 could offer enough breathing room for the CBN to cut rates to 13% by year end.


Kindly share this post

Ugo Onwuaso is an ICT enthusiast. He believes technology should be used for general good. He holds a Master of Public Administration (MPA) degree from the Lagos state University. Dear Reader, Your support matters. But we believe that technology makes life more exciting and helps improve the lives of people around Nigeria and indeed the world. That is why, we have devoted our energy to independent reportage of technology and finance and how they affect lives. Our incisive and analytical view of how technology news affects the daily life help individuals and organizations make up their minds. Quality journalism costs money. Today, we're asking that you support us to do more. Kindly support our effort to deliver technology and finance journalism to everyone in the world. Donate as little as N1,000. Bank transfers can be made to: UBA Plc 1017156876 Communication Week Media Ltd

E-Financial

Banks Lose N10Bn to Cyber Fraud in 2023’

Published

on

Kindly share this post

Stakeholders in the banking and financial ecosystem, yesterday, decried the surge in cyber fraud as Deposit Money Banks (DMBs) lost N10 billion in the second quarter of 2023, representing almost 300 per cent year-on-year compared to the previous year.

Banks Lose N10Bn to Cyber Fraud in 2023’

At a Mastercard forum convened to tackle fraud and cybersecurity threats in the financial sector, Kari Tukur, vice president, Customer Solutions Centre, East and West Africa at Mastercard, said despite the massive awareness and innovations aimed at combating cybersecurity, the amount lost last year by DBMs was “staggering”.

She said, “With Nigeria’s rapidly growing economic expansion, we are starting to see an increase in the adoption of digital financial services, and the financial landscape is also evolving at an astronomical speed.

“What was staggering for me was in spite of the huge investment around innovation, funding in the cyber space, DBMs lost almost N10bn in Q2 last year, and that was almost 300 per cent growth year-on-year when compared to the previous year.”

She noted that there was the need for collaboration among stakeholders “to combat this rising sophistication of cyber security threat.”

Tukur further stated that Mastercard was deeply committed to cyber security and fraud prevention within the payment industry, disclosing that the company invested $250m “to assist small businesses in addressing their cyber security needs.”

She disclosed that Mastercard payment portals incorporated multiple layers of security such as tokenisation technology, encryption and biometrical to stay ahead of cyber attackers.

She added that, “The sector continues to struggle with the aforementioned challenges, necessitating vigilance, proactive action and comprehensive security strategy, and Mastercard remains committed to providing safe, secure and seamless payment services and experiences for our partners and customers in Nigeria and beyond.”

Celestina Appeal, chairman, Committee of e-Business Industry Heads (CeBIH), stated that the total loss to the banking industry in the last couple of years totalled hundreds of billions of naira while Nigeria’s Consumer Awareness and Financial Enlightenment Initiative had projected a $6trn loss by 2030 to cybercrime within and outside Nigeria.

Represented by Mr Temitope Onibaniyi, secretary of the committee, she stated that the committee was ever-willing to collaborate with industry stakeholders to fight against the perpetrators who “constantly rob banks and other stakeholders in the payments industry of their hard-earned money.”

She said the need for collaboration could not be overemphasised as no individual organisation was immune to cyber security attacks.

 

 


Kindly share this post
Continue Reading

E-Financial

Tinubu Rejigs SEC Board, Makes New Appointments

Published

on

Kindly share this post

President Bola Tinubu has approved the appointment of some Nigerian professionals to the Board of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Tinubu Rejigs SEC Board, Makes New Appointments

This is contained in a statement issued by Ajuri Ngelale, special adviser to the President on Media and Publicity.

Tinubu appointed Mr. Mairiga Aliyu Katuka  as the Chairman of the board of SEC, while Mr. Emomotimi Agama has been appointed as the  Director-General of the board.

The president also appointed Frana Chukwuogor  as Executive Commissioner (Legal and Enforcement) of the board.

Tinubu further appointed Mr. Bola Ajomale as the Executive Commissioner (Operations) of the board, while Mrs. Samiya Hassan Usman is the Executive Commissioner (Corporate Services) of the board.

Also appointed into the board are Mr. Lekan Belo as Non-Executive Commissioner and Mr. Kasimu Garba Kurfi as Non-Executive Commissioner.

According to Ngelale, the president anticipated that “all members of the Board of this critical commission will bring to bear their wealth of experience and competence in advancing the commission’s core mandate of developing and regulating a capital market that is dynamic, fair, transparent, and efficient, to bolster investor confidence and contribute immeasurably to the nation’s economic development.”


Kindly share this post
Continue Reading

E-Financial

Ecobank Repays $500m Eurobond

Published

on

Kindly share this post

Ecobank has announced the successful repayment of its $500 million five-year Eurobond issued in 2019. According to a statement filed on the Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX), the Eurobond garnered considerable interest from a diverse range of global investors, including long-term development partners such as FMO and Proparco, who served as anchor investors.

Commenting on this achievement, Ecobank Group Financial Officer, Ayo Adepoju, said: “The bond was listed on the main market of the London Stock Exchange with a coupon rate of 9.5 per cent. The principal and interest repayment, totalling $524 million, was distributed to bondholders through the transaction agent on the bond maturity date of April 18, 2024.

“This inaugural bond we are retiring today was critical in introducing our firm to a wider array of global investors and contributed to the increased visibility of our brand in the capital markets.”

Against the backdrop of challenges posed by the global operating environment, including disruptions in the world supply chain and financial markets, Adepoju highlighted the Group’s resilience. He cited strong liquidity, a robust balance sheet, and a solid leadership team as key factors enabling Ecobank’s success.

He added that the successful repayment of the Eurobond underscores Ecobank’s commitment to financial stability and investor confidence, positioning the firm for continued growth and success in the global market.

 


Kindly share this post
Continue Reading

Trending