General News
Dangote, Monopoly Power, and Political Economy of Failure

By Blaise Udunze
Nigeria’s refining crisis is one of the country’s most enduring economic contradictions. Africa’s largest crude oil producer, strategically located on the Atlantic coast and home to over 200 million people, has for decades depended on imported refined petroleum products. This illogicality has drained foreign exchange, weakened the naira, distorted investment incentives, and hollowed out state institutions. Instead of catalysing industrialisation, Nigeria’s oil wealth became a mechanism for capital flight, rent-seeking, and institutional decay.

Dangote
With the challenges surrounding the refining of crude oil, the establishment of Dangote Refinery signifies an important historic moment. The refinery promises to reduce fuel imports to a bare minimum, sustain foreign exchange growth, ensure there is constant fuel domestically, and strategically position Nigeria as a regional exporter of refined oil products if functioned at full capacity. Dangote Refinery symbolises what private capital, technology, and ambition can achieve in Africa following years of fuel queues, subsidy scandals, and global embarrassment.
Nigerians must have a rethink in the cause of celebration. Nigeria’s refining problem is not simply about capacity; it is about systems. Without addressing the policy failures and institutional weaknesses that made Dangote an exception rather than the rule, the country risks replacing one failure with another, this time cloaked in private-sector success.
For a fact, Nigeria desperately needs the emergence of Dangote refinery, and its success is in the national interest. Hence, this is not an argument against the Dangote Refinery. But history warns that structural failures are not solved by scale alone. Over the year, situations have shown that without competition and strong institutions, concentrated market power, whether public or private, can undermine price stability, energy security, and consumer welfare.
The Long Silence of Refinery Investments
Perhaps the most troubling question in Nigeria’s oil history is why none of the global oil majors like Shell, ExxonMobil, Chevron, Total, or Agip has built a major refinery in Nigeria for over four decades. These companies operated profitably in Nigeria, extracted their crude, and sold refined products back to the country, yet never committed capital to domestic refining.
Over the period, it has been shown that policy incoherence has been the cause, not a matter of technical incapacity, such as price controls, resistant licensing processes, subsidy arrears, frequent regulatory changes, and political interference, which made refining an unattractive investment. Importation, by contrast, offered quick returns, lower political risk, and guaranteed margins, often backed by government subsidies.
Nigeria carelessly designed a system that rather rewarded importers and punished refiners. Dangote did not succeed because the system improved; he succeeded despite it. His refinery exists largely because of the concessions from the government, exceptional financial capacity, political access, and a willingness to absorb risks that institutions should ordinarily mitigate. This raises a deeper concern; when institutions fail, progress becomes dependent on extraordinary individuals rather than predictable systems.
The Tragedy of NNPC Refineries
If private investors stayed away, Nigeria’s state-owned refineries should have filled the gap. Instead, the Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna refineries became monuments to mismanagement. Records have shown that between 2010 and 2025, Nigeria reportedly wasted between $18 billion and $25 billion, over N11 trillion, just for Turn Around Maintenance and rehabilitation. Kaduna Refinery alone is estimated to have consumed over N2.2 trillion in a decade.
Despite these expenditures, output remained negligible. This was not merely a technical failure but a governance one. Contracts were poorly monitored, accountability was absent, and consequences were nonexistent. In functional systems, such outcomes trigger investigations, sanctions, and reforms. In Nigeria, the cycle simply repeated itself, eroding public trust and deepening dependence on imports.
Where Is BUA?
Dangote is not the only Nigerian conglomerate to announce refinery ambitions. In 2020, BUA Group unveiled plans for a 200,000-barrels-per-day refinery. Years later, progress remains unclear, timelines have shifted, and execution appears stalled.
This pattern is revealing. When multiple large investors struggle to translate plans into reality, the issue is not ambition but environment. Refinery projects in Nigeria appear viable only at a massive scale and with extraordinary political leverage. Smaller or mid-sized players are effectively crowded out, not by market forces, but by systemic dysfunction.
Policy Failure and the Singapore Comparison
Nigeria often aspires to emulate Singapore’s refining and petrochemical success. The comparison is instructive. Singapore has no crude oil, yet built one of the world’s most sophisticated refining hubs through consistent policy, investor protection, infrastructure planning, and regulatory certainty.
Nigeria chose a different path: price controls, subsidies, weak contract enforcement, and politically motivated policy reversals. Refineries became tools of patronage rather than productivity. Capital exited, infrastructure decayed, and import dependence deepened. The outcome was predictable.
The Cost of Import Dependence
For years, Nigeria spent billions of dollars annually importing petrol, diesel, and aviation fuel. This placed constant pressure on foreign reserves and the naira. Petrol subsidies alone were estimated at N4-N6 trillion per year, often exceeding national spending on health, education, or infrastructure.
Even after subsidy removal, legacy costs remain: distorted consumption patterns, weakened public finances, and entrenched interests built around importation. These interests did not disappear quietly.
Who Really Benefited from the Subsidy?
Although framed as pro-poor, fuel subsidies disproportionately benefited importers, traders, shipping firms, depot owners, financiers, and politically connected intermediaries. Smuggling across borders meant Nigerians subsidised fuel consumption in neighbouring countries.
Ordinary citizens received marginal relief at the pump but paid far more through inflation, deteriorating infrastructure, and underfunded public services. The subsidy system functioned less as social protection and more as elite redistribution.
The Traders’ Dilemma
Why did major fuel marketers like Oando invest in refineries abroad but not in Nigeria? Again, incentives explain behaviour. Importation offered faster returns, lower capital requirements, and political insulation. Domestic refining demanded long-term investment under unstable rules.
In an irrational system, rational actors optimise accordingly. Importation thrived not because it was efficient, but because policy made it so.
FDI and the Confidence Problem
Sustainable Foreign Direct Investment follows domestic confidence. When local investors, who best understand political and regulatory risks, avoid long-term industrial projects, foreign investors take note. Capital flows to environments with predictable pricing, rule of law, and policy consistency.
Nigeria’s challenge is not attracting speculative capital, but building conditions for patient, productive investment.
Dangote and the Monopoly Question
Dangote Refinery deserves credit. But scale brings power, and power demands oversight. If importers exit and no competing refineries emerge, Dangote could dominate refining, pricing, and supply. Nigeria’s experience with cement, where domestic production rose but prices soared due to limited competition, offers a cautionary tale.
Markets function best with competition. Without it, price manipulation, supply risks, and weakened energy security become real dangers, especially in countries with fragile regulatory institutions.
The Way Forward: Competition, Not Replacement
Nigeria does not need to weaken Dangote; it needs to multiply Dangotes. The goal should be a competitive refining ecosystem, not a replacement of a public monopoly with a private monopoly.
This requires transparent crude allocation, open access to pipelines and storage, fair pricing mechanisms, and strong antitrust enforcement. State refineries must either be professionally concessional or decisively restructured. Stalled projects like BUA’s should be unblocked, and modular refineries should be supported.
The Litmus Test
Nigeria’s refining crisis was decades in the making and cannot be solved by one refinery, however large. Dangote Refinery is a turning point, but only if embedded within systemic reform. Otherwise, Nigeria risks trading one form of dependency for another.
The true test is not whether Nigeria can refine fuel, but whether it can build fair, open, and resilient institutions that serve the public interest. In refining, as in democracy, excessive concentration of power is dangerous. Competition remains the strongest safeguard.
Blaise, a journalist and PR professional, writes from Lagos and can be reached via: [email protected]
General News
Anti Graft Agencies Raise Alarm over Rising Crypto-Linked Financial Crimes

Ola Olukoyede, chairman, Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), has raised concerns over the growing threat of cryptocurrency-related crimes in the country.

Olukoyede made this known at the inauguration of the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) Country Programme for Nigeria 2026–2030, on Friday in Abuja.
The EFCC boss revealed that the world lost more than 160 billion dollars to illicit transactions involving digital currencies in 2025.
Olukoyede highlighted the risks posed by cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin.
He noted that criminal networks were increasingly exploiting technological advancements, global financial systems, and governance gaps to facilitate illicit activities.
“Last year, the world lost over 160 billion dollars to illicit transactions in cryptocurrencies.
”Tackling these challenges requires coordinated national responses, strong institutions and sustained intelligence-driven strategies,” he said.
He said that the UNODC programme came at a time when Nigeria and the global community were grappling with evolving threats from transnational organised crime, financial crimes, illicit financial flows, and cyber-enabled offences.
Olukoyede said the programme represented a strategic foundation for collective efforts to strengthen the rule of law.
This, he said, included enhancing the criminal justice system and protecting institutions and communities from violence, crime, and financial corruption.
He noted that the programme’s focus on combating corruption and illicit financial flows was particularly significant to the EFCC, given the enormous economic and social costs of such crimes on Nigeria.
“The imperative of sustained action to turn the tide cannot be overstated,” he said.
The EFCC chairman expressed pride in the commission’s longstanding partnership with UNODC, stating that the collaboration had strengthened institutional capacity and improved Nigeria’s response to economic and financial crimes.
He said the partnership had supported reforms and operational frameworks that enhanced the agency’s effectiveness in tackling corruption and related offences.
Olukoyede expressed optimism that the programme would further improve national security and safeguard the future of Nigerians through strengthened collaboration and shared operational experiences.
He stressed the need to continuously refine frameworks and ensure that Nigeria’s institutions and citizens remain at the centre of all collaborative efforts.
The EFCC boss commended UNODC for initiating the programme and reaffirmed the commission’s commitment to supporting its implementation to achieve measurable outcomes for Nigeria and the wider region.
Dr Musa Aliyu, SAN, chairman, Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPC), in his remarks, called for stronger collaboration among institutions to address Nigeria’s growing security and corruption challenges.
Aliyu said Nigerian society was currently grappling with multiple social ills, stressing that no single agency could effectively tackle the challenges alone.
According to him, the country faces complex and interconnected threats, including violent extremism, organised crime, illicit financial flows, smuggling, and other serious offences.
“There is a common point of truth, Nigerian society is entangled with many ills, and no agency can fight them alone,” he said.
The ICPC boss noted that these challenges also posed significant threats to the nation’s criminal justice system, warning that no society could remain secure under such conditions.
He, however, expressed optimism that through strategic partnerships and collective efforts, Nigeria could overcome the challenges.
Aliyu described the UNODC Country Programme as timely and appropriate, given the scale and urgency of the issues confronting the nation.
He emphasised the importance of international support, noting that Nigeria’s progress in tackling crime and corruption had been strengthened by its collaboration with global partners, particularly the United Nations.
The ICPC chairman said the partnership between the commission and UNODC had been beneficial to Nigerian society, contributing to efforts aimed at strengthening institutions and improving governance.
He congratulated UNODC on what he described as a significant milestone and a “grand stride” in supporting Nigeria’s fight against crime and corruption.
Aliyu reaffirmed ICPC’s commitment to continued collaboration, assuring stakeholders of the commission’s readiness to work with UNODC and other partners toward national development.
“I assure you of our continued support and willingness to work together for the growth and betterment of Nigeria,” he said.
General News
NCC to Curb SIM Fraud, Strengthen Digital Security with New Platform

Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) has unveiled plans to introduce a Telecoms Identity Risk Management System (TIRMS) platform to tackle SIM-related fraud, strengthen digital security and boost confidence in Nigeria’s digital economy.

Aminu Maida, executive vice chairman of the commission, disclosed this on Thursday in Abuja at a stakeholders’ consultative forum on the proposed platform and planned regulatory changes.
Maida, represented by Rimini Makama, executive commissioner, Stakeholder Management, said the Mobile Station International Subscriber Directory Number (MSISDN), commonly known as SIM or mobile phone number, had become central to financial transactions, digital identity and access to services, but warned that its widespread use had also created vulnerabilities.
He noted that fraudulent activities linked to recycled, swapped, churned and barred SIMs had emerged as a major channel for identity theft and financial crimes, weakening trust in digital platforms.
He said, “The Mobile Station International Subscriber Directory Number commonly known as the SIM or mobile phone number has evolved into a critical identifier underpinning financial transactions, digital authentication, and access to essential services across all sectors of our economy.
“This evolution, however, has created new and challenging vulnerabilities. The fraudulent use of churned, recycled, swapped, and barred MISISDN’s has become a significant vector for financial fraud and identity theft, eroding public trust in our digital platforms and undermining the identity of systems we have worked hard to build.
“It is in direct response to these challenges that the Commission has initiated the Telecoms Identity Risk Management System Platform.”
According to him, the platform will enable service providers to verify mobile numbers flagged for suspicious or fraudulent activities before granting access, a move expected to reduce exposure to fraud and improve accountability.
He added that the system would enhance coordination among regulators, financial institutions and security agencies to build a more resilient digital ecosystem.
To support the rollout, the commission has proposed amendments to its Quality of Service Business Rules and the Registration of Communications Subscribers framework.
The proposed changes will require telecom operators to notify subscribers at least 14 days before recycling their lines and to upload details of churned numbers to the platform within seven days.
The amendments also introduce stricter provisions for blocking fraudulently registered or misused SIMs, aimed at improving transparency and protecting consumers.
Maida said the initiative reflects the commission’s commitment to collaboration and a whole-of-government approach to addressing digital risks, urging stakeholders to actively contribute to shaping the framework.
Also speaking, Olatokunbo Oyeleye, director of Cybersecurity and Internet Governance at the commission, emphasised the importance of trust in the digital economy.
“As rightly noted, digital trust is the operating licence of modern economy. Without it, nothing scales and with it everything accelerates. For our sector, this trust must be embedded across the entire value chain,” she said.
It was reported earlier that the NCC proposed that telecom operators must give subscribers a minimum of 14 days’ notice before deactivating their SIM cards over inactivity or post-paid churn.
The proposal was contained in a consultation paper titled Stakeholders Consultation Process for the Telecoms Identity Risks Management Platform, dated February 2026 and published on the Commission’s website.
Under the proposed amendments to the Quality-of-Service Business Rules, the NCC stated that “prior to churning of a post-paid line, the Operator shall send a notification to the affected subscriber through an alternative line or an email on the pending churning of his line.”
It added, “This notification shall be sent at least 14 days before the final date for the churn of the number.”
A similar provision was proposed for prepaid subscribers. The commission said, “prior to churning of a pre-paid line, the Operator shall send a notification to the affected subscriber through an alternative line or an email on the pending churning of his line,” stressing again that the notice “shall be sent at least 14 days before the final date for the churn of the number.”
General News
Kidnappers Now Use Banks to Collect Ransoms — Expert

Dr. Kabir Adamu, a security expert, has raised concern that kidnappers in Nigeria are now using banks to collect ransom payments.

Pix… CNBC
Adamu explained that in the past, kidnappers typically demanded cash payments for ransom.
However, there has been a noticeable shift to using mainstream banks for transactions.
Speaking on Arise News, Adamu, who is the CEO of Beacon Security and Intelligence Ltd, said this trend is worrying. In the past, kidnappers usually demanded cash, but now they are asking victims’ families to pay money through bank accounts.
He revealed that his team has tracked cases where ransom money was paid into bank accounts and successfully withdrawn.
Although he did not mention the banks involved, he said some progress is being made to address the issue.
Adamu explained that criminals previously used fintech platforms, but have now moved to traditional banks. This shift raises serious concerns about how well banks are monitoring transactions and following regulations.
He said Nigeria has improved its financial intelligence systems, especially after being removed from the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) gray list.
However, he noted that there are still weaknesses in how rules are enforced.
According to him, “A lot has been done in terms of policy, but there are still major gaps in operations and compliance.”
“We’ve monitored kidnapping for ransom cases where the ransom is being collected by formal banks,” Adamu said.
“My team and I were shocked when the ransom demand was made in a formal bank. It was paid and collected. I don’t want to mention the names of the two banks that were extremely guilty, but even for those two, progress is being made,” he said.
The security expert noted that although fintech platforms had previously been linked to ransom payments, criminals have now shifted their operations to traditional banking channels, raising significant concerns about compliance and oversight in the banking industry.
Adamu emphasized that this shift in tactics underscores the urgent need for stronger accountability measures and compliance standards within Nigeria’s financial institutions.
He also pointed out the challenges faced by regulatory bodies in fully addressing the issue, despite recent advancements in financial intelligence efforts.
“From the point of view of policy, a lot has been done, but from the point of view of operations, there is still a lot that remains to be done,” Adamu stated.
According to a report by SBM Intelligence, Nigeria’s kidnap-for-ransom crisis generated at least N2.57 billion for criminal groups between July 2024 and June 2025.
The report, titled “The Year Ahead at an Inflexion Point,” highlighted that despite kidnappers’ demands totaling N48 billion during the year, they only received N2.57 billion in actual payments.
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