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Technology is Critical in Creation of Retail Forex Market – Ahmad

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Jameel Ahmad is the chief market analyst at Forex Time (FXTM).
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Jameel Ahmad is the chief market analyst at Forex Time (FXTM). Having worked in the UK, US and Cyprus, Jameel has built a very strong background not only in forex analysis but also in risk management and project management, all of which have been crucial stepping stones in accomplishing the position he holds today.
In this interview with peter ugwu, he spoke extensively on the devaluation of Naira, the forex market and impact of technology on the Forex market. 

Devaluation of the Naira
I felt that the central bank’s choice to act proactively and attempt to devalue the Naira before the drop in oil prices even really began, was an interesting strategy and one which I personally supported.
This action has resulted in the Naira only depreciating by around 15% against the US Dollar this year, despite the Nigerian economy being very dependent on oil trade.
It appears that the central bank’s attempt to gradually devalue the Naira has avoided the issue of unexpectedly alarming investors.
On the flip side, the central banks of other countries dependent on oil trade such as Norway and Russia acted differently, and have seen a much more rapid weakening of their currencies.
 
Economic Factors Responsible for CBN’s Action
The primary reason behind the drop in the Naira was to combat the substantial fall in oil prices, with the Nigerian economy heavily relying on Crude exports for its earnings.

Debate on Whether CBN Should Have Acted Differently
This is a question that could be repeatedly asked, and one that will be widely debated by others. In some ways the central bank acted proactively by devaluing the Naira before the drop in oil prices even began to hit full momentum.
Other central banks appear to have waited for the decline in oil prices to accelerate before acting, with this stirring some panic among investors and leading to unexpected levels of market volatility.
If moves to devalue the Naira occurred after the decline in the oil prices had already commenced, this would have risked creating market panic.
Therefore, there are arguments for both sides here.  

Expected Impact on the Economy
This is an interesting question, and there are a few different approaches that could explain what impact the drop in oil will have.
From the economic standpoint of Nigeria, there is a high reliance on oil exports so there are disadvantages that this will have on the Nigerian economy.
At the same time, Nigeria has been attempting to develop a focus on more service related industries, therefore there is an opportunity for the economy to continue focusing on this.
The same approach goes for the other economies heavily relying on crude exports, as this creates an opportunity for economies to diversify from being reliant on a few sectors.
The likely knockback the drop in oil prices will have on oil reliant economies will have some impact on the global stage, however it could also help the global economy as well. For example, some of the major economies are large consumers of oil (China, Japan, and India) and these economies will benefit from the lower prices.
In the longer term, the lower prices should encourage economies to import more oil and continue expansion projects. Continuing expansion projects is extremely important, because this would lead to increased demand for the commodity and provide oil with its highest prospects of a rebounding price.

Price of Oil Appreciating
This is appearing increasingly unlikely, with the current economic conditions being aggressively against the commodity.
In order for oil to even begin recovering a proportion of its substantial losses, these economic conditions have to change.
There is currently an overpowering supply and demand equation threatening the oil markets, which is heavily weighted in favour of the bears and preventing possible bulls from even considering purchasing.
Despite there being repeated reports over an oversupply being present in the markets, oil production levels are still on the rise.
This is weakening the price of oil on its own. We also have repeated global economic concerns dominating news headlines, which is raising fears that there will be less demand for oil moving forward.
These two factors are combining together to allow the bears to dominate, which is why the oil markets are making new milestone lows on such a frequent basis. 

Devaluation of the Naira, the Falling Oil Price and the Forex Market
One of the benefits of the forex market is that it allows for speculating on the market in both directions.
This means that even in a situation where a currency or commodity price is crashing, a trader has the potential to make a profit.
As such, I believe that the forex market is to a certain extent ‘immune’ from the kind of panicked mass exodus we see in other investment markets.
Of course, the forex market is just as prone to losses, but the ability to make a loss or profit lies in the hands of the trader and the trading decisions they make, as opposed to with other investments where there are external factors playing a role.

Assessment of Forex Market in 2014
Since the summer months of 2014, policymakers from some of the major central banks did provide insight towards the divergence in both economic sentiment and monetary policy around the global economy widening.
As 2014 wound up, this became one of the catalysts behind the increased market volatility. The other main catalyst behind the high market volatility has been the unexpected drop in oil prices.
My assessment of the market would be that there are still unanswered questions regarding the global economic recovery, and this is likely to remain in the headlines for at least the first quarter of 2015.
I also see the divergence in both economic sentiment and monetary framework from the major central banks continuing, which will further the potential for market volatility.
Although market news might continue to have headlines centered on global economic concerns, the US economy is continuing to progress and this will hopefully raise optimism in the global economy.

Phobia among Nigerians Concerning Forex Trading
I would say that this has reduced, as more Nigerians than ever before are becoming interested in trading forex and, as a result, the currency market is one of the fastest growing financial markets in Nigeria.
There is a real movement in the Nigerian people for them to take control of their own financial destiny and, because forex trading is open to almost anyone, it is a truly democratic investment option.
Forex is still a relatively new investment tool for many Nigerians which is why we focus so heavily on educational training programs and seminars.
These training sessions cover everything from the very basics of the market, right through to developing detailed trading plans and risk management strategies.
One thing can be guaranteed in investments; in order to truly prosper in any financial market it is critical to understand how the market works and to ensure you execute a balanced risk management strategy.

FXTM Assessment of Nigeria in the Global Forex Market
The forex market is developing quickly in Nigeria and interest in it is fast catching up on some of the more established financial markets, such as stock trading.
However we recognise that Nigerian traders need further education and support in order to truly benefit from investing in the financial markets which is why we organize demo contests and bespoke educational events.
Demo contests in particular are great learning experiences and they are completely risk free. By participating you are able to experience live trading conditions and the thrill of the market without risking any real money.
This is a great advantage for both novices and experienced traders as it means not only can you familiarize yourself with the platforms and tools of forex trading, but you can also test strategies and see what works best for you.
Forex trading is also somewhat of a singular activity and by participating in a demo contest you become part of a community in which you can challenge yourself against other traders from all around the world. 

Impact of internet Access on Nigeria Forex Trading
Having reliable and consistent internet access is important to any form of online investment, including forex trading, but with the growing trend for people all around the world to access the internet via mobile devices, some of the challenges regarding internet access are being reduced.  
Mobile internet adoption rates in Nigeria have accelerated in the past five years and last year it was reported that 32.5 million Nigerians were accessing the internet through mobile devices compared with 7.3 million users back in 2008.
The popularity and growth of mobile internet adoption has had a positive impact on our business as we are finding that more clients than ever before are accessing the forex market through our mobile and tablet apps, and I can only see this trend growing in the future.

Role of Technology in the Forex Market
Technology has been critical in the evolution and even the creation of the retail forex market.  Until the internet developed into the phenomenon that we know it as today, forex trading was restricted to just banks and financial institutions.
It was only once the online revolution took hold in the late 1990s and the early 2000s that online forex trading platforms emerged and the currency trading market became open to retail investors.
The opening up of the retail forex market is routinely called the “democratization” of the forex industry because it took away many of the practical barriers to entry that had previously stopped independent investors becoming involved in the forex market.
Since then, the technology has developed so enormously that it is now possible to trade from virtually anywhere via desktop, laptop, mobile phone or tablet.  
Technological developments are especially important to market participants in fast-developing economies such as Nigeria because it means that investors have the same access to the market that they would have anywhere else in the world, whether that is New York, London or Lagos. 


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Jumia Kicks Off December Holiday Sale, Bringing Festive Deals to Shoppers Nationwide

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Jumia Nigeria has launched its highly anticipated December Holiday Sale, unlocking a wide range of festive deals and savings for shoppers across the country from December 2 to December 28.

This year’s campaign goes beyond seasonal discounts, introducing a special sub-series titled “Celebrate Naija / Naija is Game,” running from December 15 to January 18. The initiative spotlights uniquely Nigerian themes and experiences, infusing the holiday season with cultural relevance and local inspiration.

The December Holiday Sale delivers a compelling mix of value, quality, and discovery, featuring the popular 12 Days of Christmas promotions, exclusive Brand Days, and deep-discount Anchor Deals across multiple product categories.

Speaking on the campaign, Temidayo Ojo, Chief Executive Officer, Jumia Nigeria, said the sale reflects the platform’s commitment to meeting the evolving needs of Nigerian consumers.

“The December Holiday Sale is our way of helping Nigerians celebrate the season without compromise. Today’s shoppers are value-driven, they want quality, convenience, and affordability. This campaign brings all three together with festive deals that address real household needs and aspirations,” Ojo said.

He added that strong Black Friday momentum continues on the platform, offering customers extended savings opportunities throughout the festive period.

On the creative direction behind the campaign, Lere Awokoya, Chief Marketing Officer, Jumia Nigeria, noted that the 2025 holiday sale is rooted in everyday moments that matter to customers.

“This year’s campaign is built around the joy of giving and daily value. ‘Celebrate Naija’ brings that spirit to life through culturally relevant themes and surprises that resonate across regions and lifestyles. We’re excited for Nigerians to discover everything we’ve curated—from gifts and essentials to dream purchases,” Awokoya said.

Shoppers can access deals across key categories including electronics, home and kitchen, fashion, beauty and personal care, and everyday essentials, with seamless online price discovery supported by Jumia’s nationwide logistics network.

Extending beyond major urban centres, Jumia’s fulfilment and pick-up infrastructure ensures customers in secondary cities and peri-urban communities enjoy the same festive prices without additional travel costs, turning convenience into tangible value.

With thousands of deals going live throughout the season, customers can expect faster deliveries, extensive pick-up options, and transparent pricing, making holiday shopping simpler and more affordable nationwide.

 


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Dangote, Monopoly Power, and Political Economy of Failure

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By Blaise Udunze

Nigeria’s refining crisis is one of the country’s most enduring economic contradictions. Africa’s largest crude oil producer, strategically located on the Atlantic coast and home to over 200 million people, has for decades depended on imported refined petroleum products. This illogicality has drained foreign exchange, weakened the naira, distorted investment incentives, and hollowed out state institutions. Instead of catalysing industrialisation, Nigeria’s oil wealth became a mechanism for capital flight, rent-seeking, and institutional decay.

Dangote, Monopoly Power, and Political Economy of Failure

Dangote

With the challenges surrounding the refining of crude oil, the establishment of Dangote Refinery signifies an important historic moment. The refinery promises to reduce fuel imports to a bare minimum, sustain foreign exchange growth, ensure there is constant fuel domestically, and strategically position Nigeria as a regional exporter of refined oil products if functioned at full capacity. Dangote Refinery symbolises what private capital, technology, and ambition can achieve in Africa following years of fuel queues, subsidy scandals, and global embarrassment.

Nigerians must have a rethink in the cause of celebration. Nigeria’s refining problem is not simply about capacity; it is about systems. Without addressing the policy failures and institutional weaknesses that made Dangote an exception rather than the rule, the country risks replacing one failure with another, this time cloaked in private-sector success.

For a fact, Nigeria desperately needs the emergence of Dangote refinery, and its success is in the national interest. Hence, this is not an argument against the Dangote Refinery. But history warns that structural failures are not solved by scale alone. Over the year, situations have shown that without competition and strong institutions, concentrated market power, whether public or private, can undermine price stability, energy security, and consumer welfare.

The Long Silence of Refinery Investments

Perhaps the most troubling question in Nigeria’s oil history is why none of the global oil majors like Shell, ExxonMobil, Chevron, Total, or Agip has built a major refinery in Nigeria for over four decades. These companies operated profitably in Nigeria, extracted their crude, and sold refined products back to the country, yet never committed capital to domestic refining.

Over the period, it has been shown that policy incoherence has been the cause, not a matter of technical incapacity, such as price controls, resistant licensing processes, subsidy arrears, frequent regulatory changes, and political interference, which made refining an unattractive investment. Importation, by contrast, offered quick returns, lower political risk, and guaranteed margins, often backed by government subsidies.

Nigeria carelessly designed a system that rather rewarded importers and punished refiners. Dangote did not succeed because the system improved; he succeeded despite it. His refinery exists largely because of the concessions from the government, exceptional financial capacity, political access, and a willingness to absorb risks that institutions should ordinarily mitigate. This raises a deeper concern; when institutions fail, progress becomes dependent on extraordinary individuals rather than predictable systems.

The Tragedy of NNPC Refineries

If private investors stayed away, Nigeria’s state-owned refineries should have filled the gap. Instead, the Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna refineries became monuments to mismanagement. Records have shown that between 2010 and 2025, Nigeria reportedly wasted between $18 billion and $25 billion, over N11 trillion, just for Turn Around Maintenance and rehabilitation. Kaduna Refinery alone is estimated to have consumed over N2.2 trillion in a decade.

Despite these expenditures, output remained negligible. This was not merely a technical failure but a governance one. Contracts were poorly monitored, accountability was absent, and consequences were nonexistent. In functional systems, such outcomes trigger investigations, sanctions, and reforms. In Nigeria, the cycle simply repeated itself, eroding public trust and deepening dependence on imports.

Where Is BUA?

Dangote is not the only Nigerian conglomerate to announce refinery ambitions. In 2020, BUA Group unveiled plans for a 200,000-barrels-per-day refinery. Years later, progress remains unclear, timelines have shifted, and execution appears stalled.

This pattern is revealing. When multiple large investors struggle to translate plans into reality, the issue is not ambition but environment. Refinery projects in Nigeria appear viable only at a massive scale and with extraordinary political leverage. Smaller or mid-sized players are effectively crowded out, not by market forces, but by systemic dysfunction.

Policy Failure and the Singapore Comparison

Nigeria often aspires to emulate Singapore’s refining and petrochemical success. The comparison is instructive. Singapore has no crude oil, yet built one of the world’s most sophisticated refining hubs through consistent policy, investor protection, infrastructure planning, and regulatory certainty.

Nigeria chose a different path: price controls, subsidies, weak contract enforcement, and politically motivated policy reversals. Refineries became tools of patronage rather than productivity. Capital exited, infrastructure decayed, and import dependence deepened. The outcome was predictable.

The Cost of Import Dependence

For years, Nigeria spent billions of dollars annually importing petrol, diesel, and aviation fuel. This placed constant pressure on foreign reserves and the naira. Petrol subsidies alone were estimated at N4-N6 trillion per year, often exceeding national spending on health, education, or infrastructure.

Even after subsidy removal, legacy costs remain: distorted consumption patterns, weakened public finances, and entrenched interests built around importation. These interests did not disappear quietly.

Who Really Benefited from the Subsidy?

Although framed as pro-poor, fuel subsidies disproportionately benefited importers, traders, shipping firms, depot owners, financiers, and politically connected intermediaries. Smuggling across borders meant Nigerians subsidised fuel consumption in neighbouring countries.

Ordinary citizens received marginal relief at the pump but paid far more through inflation, deteriorating infrastructure, and underfunded public services. The subsidy system functioned less as social protection and more as elite redistribution.

The Traders’ Dilemma

Why did major fuel marketers like Oando invest in refineries abroad but not in Nigeria? Again, incentives explain behaviour. Importation offered faster returns, lower capital requirements, and political insulation. Domestic refining demanded long-term investment under unstable rules.

In an irrational system, rational actors optimise accordingly. Importation thrived not because it was efficient, but because policy made it so.

FDI and the Confidence Problem

Sustainable Foreign Direct Investment follows domestic confidence. When local investors, who best understand political and regulatory risks, avoid long-term industrial projects, foreign investors take note. Capital flows to environments with predictable pricing, rule of law, and policy consistency.

Nigeria’s challenge is not attracting speculative capital, but building conditions for patient, productive investment.

Dangote and the Monopoly Question

Dangote Refinery deserves credit. But scale brings power, and power demands oversight. If importers exit and no competing refineries emerge, Dangote could dominate refining, pricing, and supply. Nigeria’s experience with cement, where domestic production rose but prices soared due to limited competition, offers a cautionary tale.

Markets function best with competition. Without it, price manipulation, supply risks, and weakened energy security become real dangers, especially in countries with fragile regulatory institutions.

The Way Forward: Competition, Not Replacement

Nigeria does not need to weaken Dangote; it needs to multiply Dangotes. The goal should be a competitive refining ecosystem, not a replacement of a public monopoly with a private monopoly.

This requires transparent crude allocation, open access to pipelines and storage, fair pricing mechanisms, and strong antitrust enforcement. State refineries must either be professionally concessional or decisively restructured. Stalled projects like BUA’s should be unblocked, and modular refineries should be supported.

The Litmus Test

Nigeria’s refining crisis was decades in the making and cannot be solved by one refinery, however large. Dangote Refinery is a turning point, but only if embedded within systemic reform. Otherwise, Nigeria risks trading one form of dependency for another.

The true test is not whether Nigeria can refine fuel, but whether it can build fair, open, and resilient institutions that serve the public interest. In refining, as in democracy, excessive concentration of power is dangerous. Competition remains the strongest safeguard.

Blaise, a journalist and PR professional, writes from Lagos and can be reached via: [email protected]


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OAU, Baptist Day School Oluponna honour Akano with Distinguished Alumnus Awards

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Mr. Tim Akano, renowned entrepreneur, technologist, and philanthropist, has been honoured with two Distinguished Alumnus Awards by Obafemi Awolowo University (OAU) and Baptist Day School, Oluponna, in recognition of his outstanding contributions to education, mentorship, technology, innovation, and community development at large.

OAU, Baptist Day School Oluponna honour Akano with Distinguished Alumnus Awards

Both awards were conferred in November 2025, and this mark a significant milestone in Mr. Akano’s lifelong commitment to human capital development and social impact.

Mr. Akano, a 1983 graduate of Obafemi Awolowo University, was recognized by the university for his global impact in entrepreneurship, technology and innovation, as well as his sustained mentorship of students.

In 2023, he awarded 1,000 scholarships that was worth ₦60 million to OAU students for them to study Artificial Intelligence. Since then, he has consistently adopted five students from the Department of International Relations annually under his structured mentorship initiative.

In the same vein, at Baptist Day School, Oluponna, Mr. Akano received a historic honour as the first alumnus ever to be decorated with a Distinguished Alumnus Award since the school was established in the 1930s. During a recent visit to the school, Mr. Akano inspected several infrastructural projects financed by him through the Tim Akano Foundation three years ago.

These include the construction of a borehole, modern toilet facilities for teachers and pupils, and the erection of a perimeter fence and gate around the school which has prevented incessant disturbance of pupils by Fulani Herdsmen who previously engaged in reckless grazing within the school premises, polluted the environment with cow waste, and exposed the children to security risk. All these challenges have since become a thing of the past following the erection of the perimeter fence.

In addition, the School Principal recounted a tragic incident that occurred before the fence was built, when a nine-year-old pupil was kidnapped within the school premises and was never found. According to the Principal, the pupil had gone into a nearby bush to answer the call of nature, unaware that kidnappers were hiding there. Since the completion of the fence three years ago, no case of pupil kidnapping has been recorded in the school.

The principal further disclosed that the school has experienced a geometric increase in enrolment since Mr. Akano’s intervention. In 2025 alone, over 30 new pupils were enrolled. This is a trend that has been consistent over the past three years.

To further enhance safety and learning conditions, the Tim Akano Foundation pledged to provide a grass-cutting machine to maintain the expansive school compound, noting that the pupils are fragile and overgrown vegetation could expose them to snake bites. The Foundation also announced the adoption of 10 best graduating pupils, committing to sponsor their secondary school education.

Furthermore, in a move to motivate and support teachers, the Foundation introduced a monthly cash incentive for all teachers, aimed at complementing the modest government salaries. The November incentive was paid immediately, with assurances that the initiative would continue in perpetuity.

In a symbolic and emotional moment, Mr. Akano presented the pupils with the glazed copy of his Primary School Leaving Certificate, issued by Baptist Day School in 1975. All pupils were invited to hold the certificate as a powerful reminder that “if I can do it, you can do even more.” In appreciation, the school management presented Mr. Akano with the Distinguished Alumnus Award, celebrating his transformative impact on the institution and its pupils.

Similarly, at Obafemi Awolowo University, Mr. Akano was honoured with the Distinguished Alumnus Award for his sustained mentorship of students and his contributions to entrepreneurship development, technology, and innovation within Nigeria and the global community.

The double recognition underscores Mr. Tim Akano’s enduring legacy as a bridge between education, opportunity, and societal transformation.


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