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US Elections: Trump Wins! What Does this Mean for Nigeria?

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By Lukman Otunuga, Senior Market Analyst At FXTM

America has chosen Republican Donald Trump as its 47th president following a tight race for the White House!

As of writing, Trump has secured 277 electoral votes with Republicans taking control of the Senate. If the House comes under his control, this will be a “red sweep” scenario.

Assets tied to the “Trump trade” rallied during the Asian session after Trump took an early lead with his victory keeping bulls in the game. US futures are flashing green, Treasury yields have jumped while Bitcoin hit an all-time high.

Before election day, we thoroughly discussed a list of assets that could soar on a Trump win:

· US dollar: jumped 1.8% – its biggest 1-day gain since February 2023 on the prospects of slower rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

· Bitcoin: rallied almost 10% to hit a fresh all-time high above $75,000 as crypto enthusiasts cheered a pro crypto president.

· S&P500 index: futures climbed 1.4% signalling that the S&P500 will open hitting fresh all-time highs. As mentioned in our week ahead report, the prospects of corporate tax cuts and a softer regulatory environment under Trump is good news for US equity bulls.

What does this mean for Nigeria?

Trump’s victory may pressure oil prices as he is seen pushing for a further increase in domestic oil and gas production, leading to increased supply in the long term.

In addition, his policies could see a boost in US growth – triggering inflationary pressures.

Should this prompt the Fed to keep interest rates higher for longer, a stronger dollar may drag oil prices lower as a result. This could be bad news for major oil producing countries who acquire most of their revenues from oil sales.

For Nigeria, the combination of lower global oil prices and a stronger dollar could add to its woes as it navigates a rough period.

Here are assets that could be burned by Trump’s return to the White House:

· Gold: dropped as much as 1.5% thanks to a stronger dollar and rising Treasury yields. The prospect of slower Fed rate cuts could limit upside gains.

· Chinese stock indices: slipped this morning amid renewed fears over US-China trade tensions.

· European stock indices: flashed red due to concerns over the impacts of Trumps proposed tariffs on Europe.

· Currencies of major US trading partners: Euro (EUR), Chinese Yuan (CNH), and especially Mexican Peso (MXN) have all weakened against the USD.

The bigger picture…

Trump’s return to the White House will most likely set the market tone for the next few years with the USD, Bitcoin and other assets tied to the “Trump trade” the biggest winners.

Investors with some skin in the game have already experienced how markets reacted under Trump between 2017 – 2021.

Trump’s unpredictability, policy uncertainty and tariff wars with China left investors on edge. This and other major themes triggered sharp moves on the Vix index during his term. Market volatility jumped over 60% during Trump’s previous administration, from 2017 until 2020. Since then, volatility fell about 10% under President Biden.

What does this mean?

And Trump’s return to the White House is likely to trigger fresh levels of volatility across the globe.

· Trump’s proposed tariff increases in Europe and China could spark a global trade war.

· If this pushes up the prices for American consumers, a return of inflation may spell higher interest rates – boosting the USD.

· An appreciating USD could hit gold prices along with emerging market currencies.

· On the geopolitical front, Trump has already vowed to “stop wars” and swiftly end the war in Ukraine. Any major shifts in US foreign policy that escalate tensions could trigger risk-aversion.

By the way….

With the US election done and dusted, the next market-moving event could be Thursday’s Fed rate decision.
As discussed in our week ahead report, US interest rates are widely expected to be cut by 25 basis points in November. But the election outcome is likely to determine what action the Fed will take in December and beyond.
Traders are currently pricing in a 67% probability of another 25-basis point cut by December.

Given how Trump’s victory could lead to rising inflationary pressures down the road, this may prompt the Fed to keep interest rates higher for longer.

It will be wise to keep a close eye on the US dollar and gold which remain sensitive to US rate expectations.

· A less dovish than expected Fed may push the US dollar higher while pulling gold further away from its all-time high at $2790.

· If the Fed confirms that a December cut is still on the table, this may limit the USD’s upside while supporting gold prices.


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Ugo Onwuaso is an ICT enthusiast. He believes technology should be used for general good. He holds a Master of Public Administration (MPA) degree from the Lagos state University. Dear Reader, Your support matters. But we believe that technology makes life more exciting and helps improve the lives of people around Nigeria and indeed the world. That is why, we have devoted our energy to independent reportage of technology and finance and how they affect lives. Our incisive and analytical view of how technology news affects the daily life help individuals and organizations make up their minds. Quality journalism costs money. Today, we're asking that you support us to do more. Kindly support our effort to deliver technology and finance journalism to everyone in the world. Donate as little as N1,000. Bank transfers can be made to: UBA Plc 1017156876 Communication Week Media Ltd

E-Financial

NIBBS to Boost Financial Inclusion with Offline Payment Solutions

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The Nigeria Inter-Bank Settlement System (NIBSS) is looking into offline payment solutions as part of its efforts to increase financial inclusion and reach Nigerians who have limited or no access to mobile data.

The project was announced by Ngover Nwankwo, NIBSS executive director for business and products, at the 2026 CHBO Conference in Lagos.

Nwankwo pointed out that the rapid expansion of digital payments must be matched by purposeful inclusion initiatives, cautioning that innovation should not exclude groups of the population that still rely largely on cash.

She emphasised that cash is still an important element of Nigeria’s economy and that digital and cash-based payments must coexist to safeguard disadvantaged users while boosting efficiency for digitally connected customers.

Nwanko also commended banks for operational performance, particularly during the December 2025 cash demand period, which she said was met with few public complaints.

Lloyd Onaghinon, Bankers Warehouse Plc,had similar sentiments on the enduring need of cash. He explained that cash usage remained high globally due to cultural, demographic, and trust-related factors

However, he cautioned that surplus currency outside the banking system undermines financial intermediation and monetary policy efficacy, demanding greater cooperation among regulators, banks, and other stakeholders.

Director Solaja Olayemi, representing the Central Bank of Nigeria, stated that around 90% of Nigeria’s cash remained outside the banking system and encouraged banks to collaborate with fintechs and microfinance institutions..

He added that fintechs with substantial agent networks, such as Moniepoint, OPay, and Kuda, are better positioned to drive inclusion, with some companies now holding national licenses.

 


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CBN Upgrades Licences of Opay, Moniepoint, Kuda, Palmpay, Paga to National Status

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has approved the upgrade of operating licences for major FinTech companies and Microfinance Banks (MFBs), including Opay, Moniepoint MFB, Kuda Bank, Palmpay and Paga, to national status, formalising their nationwide operations after fulfilling regulatory compliance requirements.

The development addresses the rapid expansion of these digital platforms, which have leveraged mobile technology and extensive agent networks to serve millions across Nigeria, outgrowing their previous regional or state-level licences.

Yemi Solaja, Director of the CBN’s Other Financial Institutions Supervision Department, announced the upgrades during the annual conference of the Committee of Heads of Banks’ Operations (CHBO) in Lagos.

Institutions like Moniepoint MFB, Opay, Kuda Bank and others have now been upgraded. In practice, their operations are already nationwide, Solaja stated, highlighting the mismatch between prior licensing scopes and actual service footprints.

He underscored the critical need for physical customer support infrastructure, especially for informal sector users who form the bulk of their clientele, noting that Most of their customers operate in the informal sector. They need a clear point of contact if any issues arise.

With national licences, these institutions must adhere to elevated standards, including a minimum capital base of N5 billion for national MFBs, establishment of dedicated offices for complaint resolution, and rigorous Know-Your-Customer (KYC) protocols to bolster consumer protection and financial system stability.

The reforms align with CBN’s broader strategy to integrate large-scale digital operators into a robust regulatory framework commensurate with their reach, while harnessing their potential to deepen financial inclusion across Nigeria’s underserved populations.

This milestone follows intensified oversight, exemplified by 2024 penalties of N1 billion each imposed on Moniepoint and Opay for KYC non-compliance during routine audits, alongside similar actions against other players like Kuda and Palmpay, which prompted operational overhauls.

Such measures reflect the apex bank’s commitment to balancing innovation with risk management in the fintech sector, which has revolutionised access to banking services for millions in the informal economy through agent banking and mobile wallets.

Industry observers view the national upgrades as a vote of confidence in these trailblazers, while signalling that sustained compliance remains non-negotiable for their continued dominance in Nigeria’s digital finance ecosystem.

 


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NIBSS, Others Flag 13,417 Nigerian Fraudsters on Person of Interest Portal

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At least 13,417 individuals linked to fraudulent activities in Nigeria’s financial system have been captured on the Person of Interest Portal jointly developed by the Nigeria Inter Bank Settlement System (NIBSS) in collaboration with the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), security agencies and other stakeholders.

NIBSS, Others Flag 13,417 Nigerian Fraudsters on Person of Interest Portal

Premier Oiwoh, managing director of NIBSS,  disclosed this while speaking on ongoing efforts to curb fraud in the payments ecosystem, noting that the portal which contains names and photographs of suspects has been actively used by law enforcement agencies since it began capturing data from 2019.

Oiwoh, while noting that fraud management remains a core responsibility of NIBSS, noted that the number of reported fraud cases has declined over the past five years, the value of losses remains a key concern for regulators and operators.

According to him, actual fraud losses stood at about N17.67 billion in 2023 before rising sharply to N52.26 billion in 2024, mainly due to a single incident involving N31.1 billion by one entity. He noted, however, that losses dropped significantly in 2025, reflecting tighter controls and improved collaboration across the industry.

He explained that Lagos continues to account for the highest concentration of fraud cases due to its position as the country’s commercial hub, while Abuja has also recorded a notable rise, with other states still featuring in reported incidents.

By transaction channel, Oiwoh said fraud is most prevalent in e-commerce and internet banking, followed by POS, mobile and web platforms.

He identified social engineering as the most common technique used by fraudsters, warning that insider abuse now poses the greatest threat to the system.

“Insider involvement is high, and recent investigations have confirmed this. Many of the fraud cases we are seeing today involve insiders, including former bankers,” he stated, noting that coordinated industry action has yielded results, and that joint efforts last year alone prevented losses of about N20 billion that could have been lost to fraud.

He raised concern over non-reporting of fraud incidents revealing that fraud reporting declined by about 34 per cent in the last quarter of 2025.

He warned that failure to report allows perpetrators to move freely between institutions undetected.

“In several cases investigated last year, individuals involved in fraud simply moved to other institutions because incidents were not reported. Non-reporting is unacceptable,” he said.

He said NIBSS, working with the CBN, the Nigerian Financial Intelligence Unit, and security agencies, has integrated centralised data systems, including industry watch lists, politically exposed persons databases, and customer account repositories, into the Person of Interest Portal to strengthen monitoring, identity management, and fraud prevention.

Credit… Leadership


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