General News
FG May Lose $12Bn to Oil Theft this Year
Revenue earned by Nigeria this year may be as much as $12 billion short of budget estimates as theft of crude and output disruptions persist in the oil-rich Niger River delta, according to Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, minister of Finance
Nigeria depends largely on proceeds from crude oil but crude theft, which a report by the London-based Chatham House blamed on a cabal of politicians, officials of international oil companies (IOCs) and military formations in the Niger Delta has been a major problem for the Nigeria’s economy.
Okonjo-Iweala said in an interview with Bloomberg in Abuja that the government will draw down its oil savings in the Excess Crude Account to compensate for the drop in revenue to keep the budget deficit under control.
Savings in the special crude account have dropped by half as President Goodluck Jonathan’s government tries to make up for the drop in oil revenue and fund a deficit that has reached 2.5 percent, according to the Central Bank.
With a 2013 budget based on a daily output of 2.53 million barrels and an oil price of $79 a barrel, Nigeria expected revenue of almost $80 billion from exports.
In the first half of the year, oil receipts amounted to $28.2 billion, more than $7 billion below the estimate, according to central bank figures.
“What is amazing now is that we’ve had this quantity of shock and we were able to weather it,” Okonjo-Iweala said. “You can say theft, but it’s still a quantity shock.”
Nigeria depends on crude exports for about 80 per cent of government revenue and 95 percent of export income.
Criminal gangs tapping oil from pipelines for illegal sale have posed the biggest threat to output since a government amnesty in 2009 reduced armed attacks led by rebels fighting for greater control of the region’s resources.
The revenue shortfall due to output disruptions will probably be between $6 billion and $12 billion, said Bright Okogu, director of the Budget Office, who sat in on the interview with the finance minister.
The government saves the balance of oil revenue above the budgeted price in the Excess Crude Account, which had a balance of just under $5 billion, down from about $9 billion at the beginning of the year, according to the minister.
Nigeria’s vulnerability to shocks is heightened because of lower government revenue from oil, putting pressure on the currency, central bank Governor Lamido Sanusi said in an interview in Oslo.
“The great challenge now is that the fiscal buffers are not as strong as they would be because of the revenue shortfall,” Sanusi said. “If there are any adverse external developments that would feed into this weak revenue profile and put pressure on exchange rates.”
The Central Bank draws down its foreign-currency reserves to sell dollars at twice-weekly auctions to keep the naira within a band of 3 percent around 155 per dollar. The naira gained 0.2 percent to 158.73 against the dollar on the interbank market as of 2:09 p.m. in Lagos, the commercial capital.
“This increases the pressure on the external balance which means the external reserves and exchange rate will be under pressure,” Bismarck Rewane, chief executive officer at Financial Derivatives Co., said by phone from Lagos today. “Once the external balance is under pressure, there is an underlying threat that will manifest in speculative attack against the currency.”
Okonjo-Iweala is seeking to meet a budget deficit target of 1.9 percent of gross domestic product this year. The shortfall reached 2.5 percent in the second quarter during the peak of the output outages, according to data from the central bank.
President Goodluck Jonathan is due to present his 2014 budget to lawmakers on Nov. 12. ”When there’s a breakage the impact is that the pipes are shut down, the effect is that 400,000 barrels are shut down,” Okonjo-Iweala said. “The actual theft is like 70 to 80,000 barrels a day.”
The average price of Nigeria’s light, sweet crude has stayed above $100 a barrel this year. The official selling price of Nigeria’s benchmark Qua Iboe crude for November loading was set at $3.50 a barrel more than dated Brent, the European benchmark, according to state-run Nigerian National Petroleum Corp. Dated Brent was priced at $108.92 a barrel at 9:18 a.m. in London. Income earned by Nigeria from crude exports, taxes and other sources are shared among the three tiers of government, including the federal, 36 state governments and 774 local councils.
At allocation meetings in August and September, funds received were not enough to meet expected allocations, prompting complaints from some state officials. The disputes over allocations “are over,” Okonjo-Iweala said. “Everybody realizes that we have to allocate what comes into the coffers.”
Nigeria Atomic Energy Commission (NAEC), has said that there are plans for Nigeria to begin to generate electricity from nuclear sources.
Mr Anthony Godwin Ekedegwa, chief executive, NAEC stated this when he recently visited Mr Umar Yusuf Girei, acting managing director, National Inland Waterways Authority (NIWA),in Abuja.
He was at NIWA’s office to solicit the support of NIWA in achieving the numerous advantages of using nuclear energy technology in the country.
According to him, the partnership of critical stakeholders in Nigeria will position the country well in developing and maintaining its nuclear power plant.
The NAEC chief said Nigeria intends to begin the generation of electricity from nuclear sources instead of fossil-based power plants and hydro-based power plants, stressing that for Nigeria to develop, there is a need for the country to diversify its energy needs.
In his remarks, Mr Girei assured NAEC of his agency’s readiness to collaborate on the advancement of a nuclear power plant in Nigeria.
He promised the full support of NAEC for the success of a nuclear power plant in the country, saying that as the organisation saddled with the responsibility of regulating and developing Nigeria Inland Waterways, his entity is strategically positioned to play a critical role in the federal government’s quest for sustainable energy through the new technology.
In a powerful call for continental solidarity, Ralph Mupita, Group CEO of MTN, has asserted that the future of the African continent depends on the dismantling of xenophobic barriers.
Speaking at the Kgalema Motlanthe Foundation (KMF) Winter Seminar, Mupita framed migration as a fundamental characteristic of the African identity, urging South Africa and other nations to embrace integration over exclusion.
He emphasised that the survival of African enterprises depends on a borderless approach to trade and talent. “The digital economy we’re fast moving to knows no borders.” Mupita declared, noting that the mindset of exclusion is an outdated relic that hinders the continent’s ability to compete globally.
He argued that for Africa to leverage the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), the psychological barriers of xenophobia must be eradicated.
Providing a stark financial justification for this stance, Mupita highlighted MTN’s own operational reality as a blueprint for Pan-African success. “We earn about 80 to 82% of our earnings from outside South Africa,” he revealed, illustrating that the prosperity of South African-born entities is inextricably linked to their success across the rest of the continent. This figure underscores the interdependence of African economies and the danger of isolationist policies.
Mupita’s stance was strong advocating for unity: “The future of Africa will not be determined by the borders that separate us, but by the economic opportunities that connect us. Governments must set predictable policy and regulations.
Businesses will follow and allocate resources and capital. Together, we can build a continent where opportunity is more evenly shared and prosperity is more widely created.”
Analysts observing the seminar noted that Mupita’s remarks come at a critical juncture where economic volatility often fuels nationalist rhetoric. By tying the fight against xenophobia to the balance sheet, MTN is positioning Pan-Africanism beyond the moral imperative to its function as a business necessity. The CEO stressed that “Migration is part of who we are,” suggesting that the movement of people is the primary engine for the movement of capital and innovation.
Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) has urged the Federal Government and the National Pension Commission (PenCom) to suspend the proposed increase in Nigeria’s mandatory pension contribution from 18 per cent to 21 per cent, warning that the policy would raise the cost of doing business, threaten jobs and undermine enterprise sustainability at a time of mounting economic pressures.
Dr. Chinyere Almona, director general of the LCCI, said while strengthening retirement security remains an important policy objective, increasing mandatory pension contributions by three percentage points would impose additional financial burdens on businesses already grappling with high borrowing costs, persistent inflation, foreign exchange volatility, rising energy prices and multiple taxes.
According to the chamber, the proposed increase comes at a period when many businesses, particularly micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs), are struggling to remain profitable amid Nigeria’s challenging operating environment.
The LCCI noted that Nigeria’s existing mandatory pension contribution rate of 18 per cent comprising 10 per cent by employers and 8 per cent by employees is already broadly aligned with the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) average of 18.8 per cent.
It argued that raising the contribution to approximately 21 per cent would place Nigeria above several comparable economies, including the United Kingdom, where mandatory contributions stand at 8 per cent; the United States at 12.4 per cent; Kenya at 12 per cent, subject to earnings caps; and South Africa, where there is no equivalent mandatory private-sector pension contribution.
The chamber warned that implementing the proposed increase would significantly raise employment costs for employers, discourage new recruitment, constrain wage growth and place disproportionate pressure on MSMEs, which account for a substantial share of employment in Nigeria.
According to the LCCI, the higher payroll obligations could also reduce Nigeria’s competitiveness as an investment destination, encourage non-compliance with pension regulations and push more businesses into the informal sector.
“A stronger pension system cannot be built on weaker businesses,” the chamber stated, stressing that economic sustainability and business growth remain critical to expanding pension coverage over the long term.
The LCCI therefore called on the Federal Government to defer the proposal until a comprehensive Nigeria-specific actuarial and economic impact assessment is conducted to determine its implications for businesses, workers and the broader economy.
It also urged policymakers to engage in extensive consultations with organised private sector groups, labour unions and other key stakeholders before implementing any changes to the country’s pension contribution framework.
According to the chamber, the government’s immediate priority should be restoring business confidence, preserving existing jobs, encouraging investment and expanding the formal economy, which it described as the most sustainable pathway to improving retirement savings.
As an alternative to increasing contribution rates, the LCCI advised PenCom to focus on developing more innovative investment instruments capable of generating stronger returns on pension assets.
The chamber said improving investment performance would enhance contributors’ retirement savings without imposing additional financial obligations on employers and employees already facing difficult economic conditions.
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