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FXTM Analysis: Political Tensions Across Globe, Knock-On Effect On Markets

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FXTM Research Analyst Lukman Otunuga comments on ongoing political tensions across the globe and their knock-on effect on markets.

Ongoing geopolitical tensions across the globe and heightened political risk in Europe have limited appetite for riskier assets this week, with global stocks now on the back foot. Asian share concluded in the red on Wednesday, as the uncertainty from world events left investors on edge.

Although European markets have displayed some resilience by opening higher this morning gains may be capped, especially if anxiety mounts ahead of the French Presidential elections.

With the overall trading mood subdued and participants adopting a cautious stance in this tense environment, Wall Street could struggle to venture higher this week.

Sterling Boosted by Mixed Jobs Report
Sterling received a slight boost on Wednesday, with short bulls in action after the mixed jobs report showed that the UK’s unemployment rate remained steady at 4.7% in the three months to February.

However, the upside was limited, as claimant count increased sharply by 25.5k in March while regular pay rose by a tepid 0.1% after accounting for inflation. With nominal earnings in the United Kingdom slowing to their weakest pace in seven months, consumer spending may be negatively impacted moving forward.

A drop in consumer spending power could reignite concerns over the sustainability of the UK’s consumer-driven economic growth, which may in turn create further headaches for the Bank of England.

Focusing on the foreign exchange outlook, the GBPUSD has staged a sharp rebound, with prices breaking above 1.2500 on the back of Dollar weakness.

The currency pair still remains in a wide range on the daily timeframe, with weakness back below 1.2450 opening a path towards 1.2370. In an alternative scenario, a decisive breakout above 1.2550 will signal an official breakout with bulls targeting 1.2650.

Trump in the Spotlight Again
The heightened geopolitical risks around Syria and North Korea have left markets tense this week and investors on high alert. Participants are in need of clarity on world events this week and as such, may encourage most to focus on Donald Trump’s aired interview on Fox Business Network.

For those who remain somewhat optimistic over Trump’s fiscal policies, the pending interview could provide further insight on the market-shaking tax reforms and infrastructure spending. With Syria and North Korea developments likely to be discussed, this could be labelled as a high-risk event that sparks volatility.

The combination of profit taking, geopolitical concerns and overall uncertainty has exposed the Greenback to downside risks this week.

With short-term bulls still in control amid the expectations of higher US rates, the current Dollar decline could be treated as a technical correction. From a technical standpoint, the daily bullish outlook remains valid as long as the Dollar Index keeps above 100.25.

Commodity spotlight – Gold
The uncomfortable trading atmosphere created from geopolitical tensions and political risk has boosted Gold’s attraction this week, with prices sprinting to five-week highs. This yellow metal is firmly bullish on the daily charts, and further upside may be expected as anxiety accelerates the flight to safety.

From a technical standpoint, prices are trading above the daily 20 SMA, while the MACD has crossed to the upside. Previous resistance at $1260 could transform into a dynamic support that opens a path towards $1280 and potentially higher.


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E-Financial

Nigeria Records First Successful Transaction on National Payment Stack

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Nigeria’s digital payment industry has reached a major milestone with the first live transaction completed on the National Payment Stack (NPS), a new digital infrastructure designed to unify and modernise the country’s payment systems.

Nigeria Records First Successful Transaction on National Payment Stack

This was disclosed in a statement by the Nigeria Inter-Bank Settlement System (NIBSS).

The milestone transaction, executed between PalmPay and Wema Bank at exactly 11:56 a.m. on Friday, November 7, 2025, marks the official commencement of live operations on the NPS, which is a next-generation payment infrastructure designed to unify, secure, and modernise digital transactions across all financial institutions.

According to NIBSS, the transaction was completed in milliseconds with instant settlement, demonstrating the platform’s robustness, scalability, and transformative capacity.

Described as a new engine powering Nigeria’s payment innovation, the National Payment Stack is built on the ISO 20022 international standard for financial messaging, which enhances interoperability, data richness, and regulatory compliance.

It is expected to replace the current NIBSS Instant Payment (NIP) platform, delivering superior speed, security, and inclusivity.

Highlighting the significance of the achievement, Mr Premier Oiwoh, managing director/chief executive officer of NIBSS,  said the development represented “a key milestone in our collective journey to simplify payments, foster inclusion, and position Nigeria at the forefront of digital transformation across Africa.”

The NPS, he explained, was developed as a next-generation infrastructure anchored on five critical pillars: speed, interoperability, security, cross-border capability, and innovation.

Under the new system, payments can be processed instantly and reliably across banks, fintechs, and other licensed financial institutions, with multi-layer authentication and digital signatures ensuring the highest standards of data protection.

NIBSS noted that the NPS is central to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s directive mandating the adoption of ISO 20022 for all electronic financial transactions, a move aimed at aligning Nigeria’s payment systems with global standards.

It also extended recognition to PalmPay and Wema Bank for pioneering the first transaction on the new platform, describing them as “trailblazers” in the implementation of the system.

“As integration continues across the ecosystem, we encourage all banks, fintechs, and other payment service providers to complete their onboarding to the NPS to deliver faster, safer, and more inclusive digital payment experiences for Nigerians.” NIBSS said.


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Standard Chartered to Close Accounts Below N7.5m AUM, Shuts Branches Ahead of 2026 Restructuring

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Standard Chartered Bank has announced that it will discontinue banking relationships with customers who do not meet its minimum Assets Under Management (AUM) threshold of N7.5 million, effective February 28, 2026.

In a notice titled “Important notice: Branch network and segment update,” the bank said accounts falling below the required balance would be closed as part of its transition to a new Emerging Affluent Segment.

The bank stated that it is phasing out its personal banking segment and restructuring its services to align with evolving customer expectations and digital transformation goals.

“Effective January 15, 2026, some branches will be closed to optimise service delivery and resource utilisation,” the notice read.

Standard Chartered said the move builds on its digitisation efforts, which began several years ago, and aims to streamline operations, products, and service channels.

Despite the changes, the bank assured customers of its financial strength, noting compliance with the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) minimum capital requirement of N200 billion for national commercial banks.

It added that its online and mobile platforms remain fully operational, enabling customers to manage accounts and conduct transactions remotely.

Branches in Lagos, Abuja, and Rivers State will remain open to serve clients under the new structure.

Nigeria CommunicationsWeek reports that the bank’s restructuring comes amid broader industry shifts toward digital banking and targeted customer segmentation.


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NDIC Now Better Positioned to Prosecute Parties at Fault for Bank Failure

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Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC), has said its laws are now stronger and more effective to carry out its bank liquidation mandate.

NDIC Now Better Positioned to Prosecute Parties at Fault for Bank Failure

This is contained in a statement issued by Hawwau Gambo, head, Communication and Public Affairs Department, NDIC, in Abuja on Sunday.

Gambia quoted Mr Thompson Sunday, the Corporation’s Managing Director as saying that NDIC’s powers in liquidation of failed insured institutions had been enhanced with the enactment of the NDIC Act No. 30 of 2023.

Sunday said that the Banks and Other Financial Institutions Act (BOFIA) 2020, also empowered the Corporation.

He said the NDIC was now better positioned to prosecute parties at fault in bank failures, unlike in the past when insufficient legal provisions allowed such individuals to evade accountability.

Sunday commended the National Assembly for addressing the long-standing challenge of a weak legal framework which had constrained the Corporation’s operations.

He also commended the judiciary for its growing expertise in deposit insurance law and practice, as demonstrated by the effective adjudication of failed bank cases through judgments that had brought relief to depositors.

”With stronger legal backing, individuals now approach the Corporation to settle out of court, not necessarily because the law has caught up with them, but because they can see that the noose is tightening around those responsible for bank failures.

”The Corporation’s ability to realise sufficient assets to declare a first round of liquidation dividends to the uninsured depositors of defunct Heritage bank Limited within one year of the revocation of its licence is due to the positive impact of the new legal framework,” Sunday said.

He reiterated that the NDIC would continue to leverage the strengthened laws while collaborating with stakeholders to enhance the effective discharge of its mandate.

 


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