E-Financial
Opinion: Nigeria Ends 2017 on a Firm Footing

By Lukman Otunuga
It has certainly been a phenomenal and somewhat pivotal year for the Nigerian economy which managed to climb out of its first recession in 25 years, during the second quarter of 2017.
The unsavory combination of heavily depressed oil prices, reduced foreign reserves, and a vulnerable Naira in 2016, initially fueled speculations of the nation’s macroeconomic conditions remaining depressed for a prolonged period.
However, the status of Nigeria’s economy did a pleasant turn around this year as core macro-economic indicators started to rebound.
The recession made it increasingly clear that the illness behind Nigeria’s economic woes was a heavy dependence on oil as a source of growth, but the cure could be found in diversification.
As Nigeria continues its quest to break away from the shackles of oil reliance by diversifying into other sustainable sources of growth in the longer term, recovering oil prices could still offer some benefits short term.
With the government’s revenues still dependent on the oil sector, the performance of oil in 2018 will have an impact on the economy.
Although supply-side disruptions and market optimism over OPEC’s production cuts balancing markets, have elevated WTI Crude to its highest level in over two years at $60, the question remains for how long?
With rising production from U.S. Shale seen as a threat to higher oil prices, the upside is likely to face some headwinds. Depreciating oil prices amid renewed oversupply concerns could easily trickle down to negatively impact the Nigerian economy.
Another risk to look for next year, is the possibility of OPEC formally requesting Nigeria to limit production by 1.8 million barrels a day- like the other oil producers.
With the 2018 budget based on oil production of 2.3 million barrels per day, this presents some headwinds to the successful implementation process of the budget, and could negatively impact the economy as a result.
Focusing on the macro fundamentals, the picture is encouraging, as inflationary pressures eased considerably from the peak of 18.72% to 15.90% in November 2017.
Exports followed a positive trajectory in 2017 which was supportive of GDP potential, while imports cooled as the nation consumed local produce. With Nigeria’s economic resilience stimulating investor risk appetite, the Nigerian Stock Exchange ventured higher; appreciating 41% year to date.
Due to improving business confidence in the country, the manufacturing PMI also rebounded significantly this year, indicating an expansion in the manufacturing sector.
In the most recent publication of the World Bank’s report on the ease of doing business, Nigeria’s ranking was pushed up by 24 places, underscoring the more promising economic outlook.
The Central Bank of Nigeria may be commended for its efforts to help stabilize the chaotic forex market this year by introducing an importers and exporters foreign exchange window.
With the window increasing the ease for investors to trade the Dollar, the Naira – which dropped to as low as N525 to the Dollar- staged a recovery, with prices trading around 365 as of writing. As we enter the New Year it is vital that Nigeria puts more effort into creating a stable and unified exchange rate across the forex markets.
It must be kept in mind that a liquid forex market combined with increased investment in other sources of growth such as agriculture, has the ability to tame inflationary pressures. When inflation displays further signs of moderation, the Central Bank of Nigeria is likely to take action by cutting interest rates from 14% to 12% in an effort to support economic growth further.
While the Central Bank of Nigeria is expected to cut interest rates in 2018 as inflationary pressures ease and the economy stabilizes further, attention should be paid to external factors. For example, with the Federal Reserve raising U.S. interest rates in December and the Bank of England potentially hiking rates in the near term to cap inflation, there is a possibility the CBN remains on standby during Q1.
As we enter the New Year, I remain highly optimistic over Nigeria’s long-term economic outlook but much work needs to be done in the short to medium term. The nation remains in need of urgent macroeconomic and structural reforms, not only to support the current recovery but to place it on a path of sustainable growth.
With the IMF forecasting real GDP growth of 2.1% and the Federal Government targeting 3.5% in the 2018 budget, it will be interesting to see if the nation under or over performs in 2018.
Lukman Otunuga is a research analyst at FXTM
E-Financial
SEC Shuts Over 400 Fraudulent Investment Schemes, Arrests Operators

Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has warned that unregistered schemes pose serious risks for investors.

This is coming after the commission announced that it has shut down more than 400 fraudulent investment schemes across Nigeria, in intensified regulatory crackdown on illegal investment activities and a stronger push to protect investors.
SEC also said that several suspects linked to these schemes are currently under prosecution.
The disclosure was made by Bola Ajomale, executive commissioner for Operations, SEC, during the financial literacy forum “The Money Fair,” organized by Nairametrics in Lagos.
Ajomale, who represented Dr. Emomotimi Agama, director-general, SEC, emphasized the regulator’s commitment to safeguarding market confidence amid a surge in unregulated investment platforms.
“Over the last three years, we have investigated and shut down at least 400 of these so-called schemes,” Ajomale said.
“We saw a tremendous increase in them last year, and a number of those involved have been arrested and prosecuted.”
If the investment product or the operator is not registered with the SEC, they have no business asking you to put your money there.”
The SEC has intensified its enforcement measures alongside public awareness campaigns to curb the proliferation of illegal investment platforms.
Initiatives such as the “See It, Snap It” campaign and the “SEC Scam Alert” platform have been introduced to enable Nigerians to report suspicious schemes quickly, allowing regulators to act before these operations expand.
Ajomale noted that the regulator has adopted a multi-pronged strategy combining investigations, arrests, and investor education to enhance market integrity.
“We are not just shutting down illegal schemes; we are also empowering investors with the knowledge to identify and avoid fraudulent operators,” he said.
The crackdown comes as unregulated investment products continue to pose significant risks to Nigerian investors, particularly amid rising interest in digital and alternative investment platforms.
E-Financial
Deepening Conflict, Oil Price Volatility, Inflation Scare

By Matthew Anthony, Senior Market Analyst- Africa
Tensions in the Middle East are sending shockwaves through global markets, stoking fresh inflation concerns as oil prices climb.

As these tensions escalate, mounting fears of inflationary shocks could force central banks to rethink their 2026 playbooks.
Against this backdrop, Nigeria’s inflation eased to 15.06% in February, just before the Iran conflict erupted. Since then, gasoline prices have soared by more than 30% for Africa’s leading crude exporter, pushing transportation costs higher for everyday Nigerians.
Nigeria’s oil production has helped shield it from the war’s fallout. The currency has only dipped 0.3% against the dollar in the past two weeks.
However, these shifts may challenge the CBN’s plans to keep lowering interest rates. The Naira now trades at NGN1,385 per US dollar, up from NGN1,360 before tensions flared in the Middle East.
Outside of Nigeria, risk aversion returned to global markets on Tuesday as tensions in the Middle East sapped risk appetite.
The brief tech rally in the previous session merely served as a small distraction with equities on the back foot amid the overall caution.
All eyes remain on the ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz as Trump calls for other nations to secure the critical waterway.
Ultimately, this has injected oil prices with monstrous levels of volatility with Brent rallying above $103 a barrel on Tuesday. Iran’s attacks on energy infrastructure around the Middle East have intensified fears around supply shocks, injecting oil bulls with renewed vigour.
To counter such shocks, the IEA launched its largest ever oil release amounting to 400million barrels of oil from their emergency stocks. In addition, the US issued its second temporary waiver for the purchase of Russian oil. Despite all of this, Brent is finding comfort at triple digits and could extend gains on geopolitical risk.
Gold remains on the backfoot despite the growing risk aversion.
A broadly stronger dollar and dwindling bets around lower US interest rates have dealt gold a double blow. Traders are only pricing in just one Fed cut in 2026 thanks to concerns around conflict-induced inflation.
Gold’s near-term outlook may be influenced by the Fed decision on Wednesday. No changes are expected but the Fed may be forced to reassess its policy strategy for 2026. Looking at the charts, gold is wobbling above $5000 as of writing. Weakness below this point may open a path toward $4900 while a rebound could see prices retest resistance at $5100.
Speaking of central banks, the RBA raised interest rates on Tuesday for a second consecutive meeting.
Growing concerns around conflict-induced inflation shocks may prompt central banks to reassess their policy strategies for 2026.
The Federal Reserve (Fed), European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BoE), among many others will be under the spotlight this week.
Market expectations have rapidly evaporated over the Fed cutting rates anytime while the BoE/ECB are seen potentially hiking rates by the end of the year if inflation persists. These sharp shifts in policy expectations may translate to heightened levels of volatility.
E-Financial
Crypto Transactions Hit $96Bn in Nigeria -SEC

Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) yesterday said that Nigeria’s digital finance ecosystem recorded about $96bn in cryptocurrency and other virtual asset transactions.

Emomotimi Agama, director-general, SEC,
Emomotimi Agama, director-general, SEC, revealed this during a Citizens and Stakeholders Engagement Session organised by the Federal Ministry of Finance in Abuja.
He noted the the size of transactions within the digital asset space makes regulation necessary in order to protect investors and ensure transparency.
According to him, the regulatory framework for the sector was strengthened following the enactment of the Investment and Securities Act 2025, which gives the commission powers to regulate digital assets and other emerging financial technologies.
He said the law also confirms the SEC as the apex regulator of the capital market while introducing provisions aimed at monitoring systemic risks and aligning Nigeria’s market operations with global standards.
Agama said the Nigerian capital market has continued to support investment activities across the economy, adding that the commission approved ₦3.68 trillion worth of new capital market issues in 2024, covering both equities and fixed income instruments.
He added that the market played a major role in strengthening the banking sector during the recent recapitalisation exercise, with more than 31 banks raising funds through the capital market to meet new capital requirements.
The SEC director-general said the performance of the market has improved significantly in recent years, with total market capitalisation rising from ₦55 trillion in 2024 to about ₦127 trillion currently.
He added that the capital market’s contribution to the economy has also expanded, with the market capitalisation-to-GDP ratio rising from about 13 per cent to roughly 33 per cent.
According to him, the commission has introduced several measures aimed at protecting investors and building confidence in the market.
He disclosed that the regulator has issued more than 90 advisory notices warning Nigerians about suspicious investment schemes and risky financial offers.
Agama also said the commission has intensified its actions against fraudulent investment schemes, including Ponzi operations, while working with the Nigeria Police Force to investigate and prosecute offenders.
He warned that many people who fall victim to such schemes often invest in unregistered platforms promising unrealistic returns, advising investors to verify whether any investment opportunity is approved by the SEC before committing funds.
The SEC boss said the capital market has also supported infrastructure development across the country through bond issuances by state governments.
He explained that several public projects including markets, stadiums and other infrastructure have been financed through subnational bond issuances raised in the capital market.
According to him, Nigeria protects investors in state bonds through the Irrevocable Standing Payment Order (ISPO) system, which allows loan repayments to be deducted directly from states’ allocations from the Federation Account.
Agama said the commission has also established an Office of Municipal Fund Development to help state and local governments access capital market financing for development projects at the grassroots level.
He added that the SEC supported the launch of the Ministry of Finance Incorporated Real Estate Investment Fund (MREIF) to help address Nigeria’s housing deficit by providing long-term funding that allows Nigerians access to mortgages at single-digit interest rates.
Looking ahead, he said the commission is working to deepen the market by raising the capital market capitalisation-to-GDP ratio from about 30 per cent toward levels seen in emerging economies such as India, where the ratio stands at about 92 per cent.
Also speaking at the session, Mr. Raymond Omenka Omachi, permanent secretary of the Federal Ministry of Finance, addressed concerns about the performance of the federal budget, explaining that several factors have affected implementation.
He said Nigeria has faced challenges meeting the oil production benchmark of about 2.1 million barrels per day, while fluctuations in global oil prices have also affected revenue.
The Permanent Secretary added that the budget benchmark was set at $75 per barrel, but oil prices at some point fell below $60 per barrel, reducing expected government revenue.
He noted that rising debt servicing obligations and increased salary commitments have also placed pressure on available funds.
According to him, the government is taking steps to improve the situation through regular monitoring of revenue and expenditure.
He said the ministry now holds weekly cash management meetings every Monday to review government finances and identify ways to boost revenue performance.
The Permanent Secretary added that the government expects improvements once Nigeria returns to operating a single budget cycle, noting that plans are underway to collapse overlapping budgets so that the country will run only one national budget from 2026 onward.
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