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US Elections: Trump Wins! What Does this Mean for Nigeria?

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By Lukman Otunuga, Senior Market Analyst At FXTM

America has chosen Republican Donald Trump as its 47th president following a tight race for the White House!

As of writing, Trump has secured 277 electoral votes with Republicans taking control of the Senate. If the House comes under his control, this will be a “red sweep” scenario.

Assets tied to the “Trump trade” rallied during the Asian session after Trump took an early lead with his victory keeping bulls in the game. US futures are flashing green, Treasury yields have jumped while Bitcoin hit an all-time high.

Before election day, we thoroughly discussed a list of assets that could soar on a Trump win:

· US dollar: jumped 1.8% – its biggest 1-day gain since February 2023 on the prospects of slower rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

· Bitcoin: rallied almost 10% to hit a fresh all-time high above $75,000 as crypto enthusiasts cheered a pro crypto president.

· S&P500 index: futures climbed 1.4% signalling that the S&P500 will open hitting fresh all-time highs. As mentioned in our week ahead report, the prospects of corporate tax cuts and a softer regulatory environment under Trump is good news for US equity bulls.

What does this mean for Nigeria?

Trump’s victory may pressure oil prices as he is seen pushing for a further increase in domestic oil and gas production, leading to increased supply in the long term.

In addition, his policies could see a boost in US growth – triggering inflationary pressures.

Should this prompt the Fed to keep interest rates higher for longer, a stronger dollar may drag oil prices lower as a result. This could be bad news for major oil producing countries who acquire most of their revenues from oil sales.

For Nigeria, the combination of lower global oil prices and a stronger dollar could add to its woes as it navigates a rough period.

Here are assets that could be burned by Trump’s return to the White House:

· Gold: dropped as much as 1.5% thanks to a stronger dollar and rising Treasury yields. The prospect of slower Fed rate cuts could limit upside gains.

· Chinese stock indices: slipped this morning amid renewed fears over US-China trade tensions.

· European stock indices: flashed red due to concerns over the impacts of Trumps proposed tariffs on Europe.

· Currencies of major US trading partners: Euro (EUR), Chinese Yuan (CNH), and especially Mexican Peso (MXN) have all weakened against the USD.

The bigger picture…

Trump’s return to the White House will most likely set the market tone for the next few years with the USD, Bitcoin and other assets tied to the “Trump trade” the biggest winners.

Investors with some skin in the game have already experienced how markets reacted under Trump between 2017 – 2021.

Trump’s unpredictability, policy uncertainty and tariff wars with China left investors on edge. This and other major themes triggered sharp moves on the Vix index during his term. Market volatility jumped over 60% during Trump’s previous administration, from 2017 until 2020. Since then, volatility fell about 10% under President Biden.

What does this mean?

And Trump’s return to the White House is likely to trigger fresh levels of volatility across the globe.

· Trump’s proposed tariff increases in Europe and China could spark a global trade war.

· If this pushes up the prices for American consumers, a return of inflation may spell higher interest rates – boosting the USD.

· An appreciating USD could hit gold prices along with emerging market currencies.

· On the geopolitical front, Trump has already vowed to “stop wars” and swiftly end the war in Ukraine. Any major shifts in US foreign policy that escalate tensions could trigger risk-aversion.

By the way….

With the US election done and dusted, the next market-moving event could be Thursday’s Fed rate decision.
As discussed in our week ahead report, US interest rates are widely expected to be cut by 25 basis points in November. But the election outcome is likely to determine what action the Fed will take in December and beyond.
Traders are currently pricing in a 67% probability of another 25-basis point cut by December.

Given how Trump’s victory could lead to rising inflationary pressures down the road, this may prompt the Fed to keep interest rates higher for longer.

It will be wise to keep a close eye on the US dollar and gold which remain sensitive to US rate expectations.

· A less dovish than expected Fed may push the US dollar higher while pulling gold further away from its all-time high at $2790.

· If the Fed confirms that a December cut is still on the table, this may limit the USD’s upside while supporting gold prices.


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Ugo Onwuaso is an ICT enthusiast. He believes technology should be used for general good. He holds a Master of Public Administration (MPA) degree from the Lagos state University. Dear Reader, Your support matters. But we believe that technology makes life more exciting and helps improve the lives of people around Nigeria and indeed the world. That is why, we have devoted our energy to independent reportage of technology and finance and how they affect lives. Our incisive and analytical view of how technology news affects the daily life help individuals and organizations make up their minds. Quality journalism costs money. Today, we're asking that you support us to do more. Kindly support our effort to deliver technology and finance journalism to everyone in the world. Donate as little as N1,000. Bank transfers can be made to: UBA Plc 1017156876 Communication Week Media Ltd

E-Financial

Banks quietly move to enforce new ₦50 transfer levy from Jan. 1

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A new ₦50 charge on electronic money transfers above ₦10,000 is to take effect from Jan. 1, 2026, following preliminary system adjustments observed across several banking platforms ahead of the New Year.

Banks quietly move to enforce new ₦50 transfer levy from Jan. 1

CBN

The levy, tied to government stamp duty regulations, is separate from and in addition to regular bank transfer fees already borne by customers.

Industry sources told the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) on Friday in Lagos that while existing bank charges would remain unchanged, customers initiating qualifying transfers would now pay both their normal transfer fees and the extra ₦50 stamp duty per transaction.

In a major shift to the current practice, the ₦50 levy which was previously borne by receivers of funds will now be paid by senders.

This implies that for every electronic transfer above ₦10,000, the sender will bear the full cost of the stamp duty alongside the standard transaction fees charged by their bank.

According to the emerging charge structure sighted on some banking platforms, the new levy applies only to transactions above ₦10,000 and will be deducted on a per-transaction basis.

Transfers below ₦10,000 remain exempt, while movements of funds between accounts owned by the same individual within the same bank are also not affected.

Analysts, however, warn that for millions of Nigerians who rely on frequent small-value transfers to meet daily needs, the additional government charge, layered on existing banking costs, could deepen financial strain for households already operating on thin margins.

Customers have in recent weeks raised concern over what they describe as a steady rise in transaction-related deductions, noting that the quiet rollout of the new ₦50 levy has heightened anxiety.

They observed that January is traditionally one of the most financially challenging months for households, driven by school fees, rent renewals, food inflation and post-holiday obligations, and questioned the timing and limited public communication around a change that directly affects routine financial activity.

Digital transfers have become central to everyday life in Nigeria, underpinning business settlements, informal trade, family remittances and emergency support.

With more than 70 per cent of transfers estimated to fall below ₦20,000, financial experts say the cumulative impact of a ₦50 charge on each qualifying transaction, when combined with existing bank fees, will significantly raise monthly transaction costs for individuals and micro and small enterprises.

For many Nigerians, the concern extends beyond the levy itself to the broader pattern of rising financial pressure that has eroded household resilience over time.

They point to the combined weight of escalating food prices, high transportation costs, stagnant incomes and a range of service charges that, in their view, “pile up quietly in the background”.

Stakeholders fear that introducing an additional government-backed charge at the start of the year, and doing so with minimal public sensitisation, may reinforce perceptions that more cost-heavy policies could be introduced in 2026 without adequate engagement or clarity.

“Why is such a significant cost being quietly introduced at the start of the year? Why was there no widespread announcement or public sensitisation? And what other policy shifts might be coming that Nigerians have not yet been informed about?” one Lagos-based small business owner asked in a chat with NAN.

As Jan. 1 approaches, many households say they are bracing for yet another financial burden in an economy where, for them, every naira already feels stretched beyond its limit.

They called on relevant authorities and regulators to provide clear guidance on the new charge structure, explain its legal basis, and ensure that customers are adequately informed about how it will affect their daily transactions.


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World Bank Reveals Obstacles to Growth of Mobile Money Accounts in Sub-Saharan Africa

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Despite being the global epicentre of mobile money innovation, Sub-Saharan Africa remains home to tens of millions of adults who do not own a mobile money account. A new World Bank report disclosed.

According to the Global Findex Database 2025, Sub-Saharan Africa is widely celebrated as the birthplace of mobile money, a technology that has transformed how people send, receive, save, and borrow money using basic mobile phones.

“Yet, the region still accounts for one of the world’s largest concentrations of adults without mobile money accounts,” it said.

The report shows that while about 40 percent of adults in Sub-Saharan Africa had a mobile money account in 2024, up sharply from 27 percent in 2021, roughly 60 percent still do not.

The reasons, the report argues, are less about lack of awareness and more about deep structural barriers that continue to exclude large segments of the population.

According to the report, a lack of money is the single most common barrier to mobile money account ownership in the region.

For many low-income households, irregular earnings, subsistence livelihoods, and dependence on cash-based transactions reduce the perceived value of maintaining an account, even when services are widely available.

This challenge is compounded by affordability issues. Transaction fees, charges for cashing out, and the cost of maintaining an active SIM card can deter the poorest adults, reinforcing the perception that mobile money is not designed for very small or infrequent transactions.

In Nigeria, the World Bank Group has announced an estimate that 139 million in 2025 will be living in poverty despite the reforms of the federal government.

Mobile phone ownership gaps persist

Mobile money cannot function without a mobile phone, yet phone ownership itself remains uneven. The report finds that 40 percent of adults now own a mobile money account, up from 27 percent in 2021.

And those who do not have a financial account also do not own a mobile phone of any kind.

This creates a double barrier: adults who are financially excluded are often also digitally excluded.

Among those without phones, the cost of the device is cited as the primary obstacle. While basic phones are more affordable than smartphones, the report notes that even these can be out of reach for the poorest households, especially in rural areas. Without addressing device affordability, efforts to expand mobile money risk leaving behind the very groups they aim to serve.

The report disclosed that even when phones and accounts are available, digital capability remains a challenge. The report finds that only about half of mobile money account owners in Sub-Saharan Africa protect their phones with passwords, compared with much higher shares in other regions.

Limited digital literacy raises concerns about fraud, mistaken transfers, and scams, which in turn undermines trust in mobile financial services.

Trust issues are further reinforced by negative user experiences. Only about half of the adults in the region who sent money to the wrong person using mobile money reported getting it back, according to the report. Such experiences can discourage first-time users and lead dormant users to abandon their accounts.

A large untapped opportunity

Despite these challenges, the report points to a significant opportunity. In Sub-Saharan Africa, about a quarter of adults without accounts already own a mobile phone, have official ID, and have a SIM card registered in their own name, meaning they have all the prerequisites for mobile money adoption.

“Closing the gap will require coordinated action: reducing the cost of devices, expanding ID coverage, strengthening consumer protection, and designing low-cost products that reflect the financial realities of poor and rural households,” the World Bank argues.

ation for Africa, turning ambition into scalable capital and risk mitigation solutions.


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AfDB Group Mobilises Global Private Capital to Close Africa’s Financing Gap

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Building on the successful conclusion of the 17th replenishment of the African Development Fund (ADF-17), which mobilised $11 billion for Africa’s most vulnerable countries, the African Development Bank Group and the Government of the United Kingdom convened global investors and private sector leaders in London to accelerate a new phase of private capital mobilisation for Africa’s development.

The inaugural Africa Private Capital Mobilisation Day, held on 17 December at Lancaster House, brought together more than 150 senior decision-makers from private equity firms, sovereign wealth funds, pension funds, insurers, philanthropies, and development finance institutions and export credit agencies—marking a decisive shift from dialogue to execution.

The high-level event was hosted by the African Development Bank Group in partnership with UK government institutions, the Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office, UK Export Finance and British International Investment, reflecting a shared ambition to scale private capital flows into African economies.

Speaking at the opening, African Development Bank Group President Dr Sidi Ould Tah described the event as a natural continuation of the ADF-17 replenishment process and a decisive step toward addressing Africa’s estimated $402 billion annual development financing gap.

“We will build on recent engagements with development finance institutions, export credit agencies, pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, insurers, and philanthropic partners to advance concrete initiatives under our vision for a New African Financial Architecture,” said Dr Ould Tah.

The Africa Private Capital Mobilisation Day aligns with President Ould Tah’s Four Cardinal Points vision, which focuses on unlocking Africa’s capital potential, strengthening financial sovereignty, transforming demographic growth into a dividend, and delivering resilient infrastructure and value chains.

UK Minister for Development, Jenny Chapman said, “We are delighted that President Ould Tah decided to hold the first Private Capital Mobilisation Day here in London, recognising the critical role of the City of London in mobilising investment for Africa. The UK’s shifting role—from donor to investor—will support countries who want to grow their economies and ultimately ultimately exit the need for aid.”

The programme featured focused discussions on reshaping perceptions of risk in Africa, designing innovative financial platforms, and mobilising capital in fragile and frontier markets.

New analysis on the Global Emerging Markets Risk Database delivered by the Center for Global Development presented new evidence showing that long-term lending to African borrowers has historically been significantly less risky than commonly perceived.

Sector-focused discussions underscored the strategic role of healthcare and aviation in strengthening Africa’s economic resilience, productivity and integration. Participants were introduced to two flagship initiatives championed by the Bank Group and its partners:

– The Africa Medicines and Equipment Facility, developed in partnership with the Gates Foundation, will provide African countries with predictable, timely, and affordable financing to secure essential medicines and medical equipment.

– The Integrated Aviation Transformation Programme for Africa—supported by a dedicated blended-finance facility—aims to modernise and expand Africa’s aviation ecosystem—from airports and airlines to enabling services critical to trade, tourism, and regional integration.

In parallel, President Ould Tah convened a closed-door roundtable with senior executives from approximately 30 leading institutional investors to explore the launch of an Africa-focused Private Sector Innovation Lab. The proposed platform would serve as a dedicated space to co-create new financing instruments, partnership models, and risk-sharing solutions tailored to African markets.

The outcomes of the Africa Private Capital Mobilisation Day are captured in the London Communiqué, setting out clear commitments by the African Development Bank Group and its partners to scale private capital mobilisation for Africa.

Further work will go into setting out priority actions and implementation pathways to scale private capital mobilisation for Africa, turning ambition into scalable capital and risk mitigation solutions.


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