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What the Recent Oil Disruption Means for Nigeria

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By Lukman Otunuga, senior,Research Analyst,FXTM

The unprecedented Oil disruption in Saudi Arabia in September shocked the markets and triggered multiple financial reactions for investors across the globe.

Oil prices exploded 20 percent higher on Monday September 16 after attacks on Saudi Oil fields caused disruptions of 5.7 million barrels per day, roughly five percent of global Oil supplies. Oil later gave back gains after Saudi Arabia pledged that Oil production would be up and running by the end of September.

However, there are doubts that the damage – which is thought to run into the hundreds of millions of Dollars – will be fixed so quickly.

Dynamic influencing Oil market swing back and forth

The uncertainty is also disrupting Oil prices, which spike intermittently before calming on data like the US Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) report about a 2.4 million barrel build in Crude oil inventories on September 25.

On top of that, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East add more concerns for the short-term future of Oil markets.

Going forward, Oil prices are expected to be more sensitive to negative supply shocks, at least in the short term. If the serious tensions between Iran and the US escalate, Oil prices may be supported with a degree of upside potential.

OPEC continues with its quest to stabilize markets

Another factor to consider is OPEC’s reaction and possible change of mind over its supply cut policy. As recently as September 12, OPEC persuaded Nigeria to join supply cuts to prevent a global glut from drastically undercutting prices and Oil revenues for Oil-producing countries. The supply-side circumstances have changed considerably since then.

Recent reports have revealed that OPEC’s oil output fell to an eight-year low in September, pumping 28.9 million barrels per day (bpd) which was down 750,000 bpd from August’s revised figure and lowest monthly total since 2011.

Should Saudi Arabia experience more attacks or take longer than expected to restore normal Oil production from the damaged facilities, OPEC may need to reconsider supply cuts and increase production so its members can meet global supply demand.

At the time of writing, Nigeria’s Light Sweet Crude Oil Kwa Ibo and Bonny Light are trading at their normal level of $3 above the Brent Crude benchmark because Saudi Arabia has pledged to be back to normal light Crude oil production levels by the end of September. In the meantime, Saudi Arabia has restored output to 11.3 million barrels per day but is relying on sales of heavy Crude oil. Should Saudi Arabia disappoint the market’s expectations, light sweet Crude oil prices may change in Nigeria’s favour.

Overall, given how Oil sales account for roughly 70 percent of government revenues and 90 percent of Nigeria’s foreign exchange earnings, if the recent disruption results in a net rise in Oil prices, it could offer short-term support to the nation.

Impact on Nigeria’s economic growth

As an emerging market energy exporter, the prospects of rising Oil prices should feed back into Nigeria’s economic growth. Higher Oil prices would boost the nation’s foreign exchange reserves, promote foreign exchange stability and boost government spending in economic infrastructure which in turn would be positive for growth.

On the other hand, Nigeria’s fiscal and monetary policy makers must always be on the lookout for inflationary pressures. In August, inflation in Nigeria fell to 11.02 percent, a 43-month low. But higher Oil prices may squeeze company and consumer transportation budgets, re-igniting inflation.

Higher Oil price could hit consumer spending

The flip side of higher Oil prices is the risk of rising inflation. This would likely drag on consumer spending and complicate central bank efforts to ease monetary policy, which may end up pressuring economic growth.

On a larger scale, the threat of a global recession lurks around the corner. Rising Oil prices could also threaten global growth with higher running costs.

While Nigeria and energy producers would welcome higher Oil prices, everyone will lose if unaffordable costs tip the global economy into recession.

Diversification remains the cure to Nigeria’s oil dependence

In September, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) left interest rates unchanged at 13.5 percent. Movements in the Oil markets have a direct impact on CBN’s rate decisions, so I am closely watching developments in this area. Especially when considering how the CBN Governor wants inflation to slow to 9% or less before he considers cutting interest rates further.

Long term, for Nigeria to reduce exposure to Oil volatility, the quest for diversification needs to build momentum. Nigeria could source growth from non-Oil sectors like Agriculture and Services.

In conclusion, until diversification reduces Nigeria’s dependence on Oil revenues, the economy remains vulnerable to Oil price volatility and an uneven demand-supply equation.


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Ugo Onwuaso is an ICT enthusiast. He believes technology should be used for general good. He holds a Master of Public Administration (MPA) degree from the Lagos state University. Dear Reader, Your support matters. But we believe that technology makes life more exciting and helps improve the lives of people around Nigeria and indeed the world. That is why, we have devoted our energy to independent reportage of technology and finance and how they affect lives. Our incisive and analytical view of how technology news affects the daily life help individuals and organizations make up their minds. Quality journalism costs money. Today, we're asking that you support us to do more. Kindly support our effort to deliver technology and finance journalism to everyone in the world. Donate as little as N1,000. Bank transfers can be made to: UBA Plc 1017156876 Communication Week Media Ltd

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CBN Projects Petrol to Hover around N905/Litre this Year

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has projected that the pump price of petrol would hover around N950 per litre in the year 2026.

CBN Projects Petrol to Hover around N905/Litre this Year

The CBN stated this in its 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook for Nigeria.

In its outlook for the domestic economy, the bank made what it called baseline projections predicated on assumptions like crude oil price at an average of $60 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025 and $55 per barrel in 2026 and the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market exchange rate at an average of N1,451.63/$ in Q4 2025 and N1,400/$ in 2026 (supported by a more efficient foreign exchange market, higher capital inflows, a current account surplus, and a broad-based improvement in economic activity).

The CBN stated that domestic crude oil production is assumed to be at about 1.5 million barrels per day throughout the forecast period, as premium motor spirit is expected to sell around N950, an amount higher than the current pump prices.

“The baseline projections are predicated on the following assumptions: crude oil price at an average of $60/barrel in Q4 2025 and $55/barrel in 2026 (consistent with the US EIA’s outlook that rising global crude oil inventories and supply glut would moderate prices); NFEM exchange rate at an average of N1,451.63/$ in Q4 2025 and N1,400/$ in 2026 (supported by a more efficient FX market, higher capital inflows, a current account surplus, and a broad-based improvement in economic activity).

“Furthermore, domestic crude oil production is assumed at about 1.5 mbpd (excluding condensates) throughout the forecast period. PMS price is expected to hover around N950 per litre in 2026. Government expenditure is projected to follow the 2025-2027 MTEF/FSP path, reflecting an expansionary fiscal stance aimed at supporting the $1tn economy initiative. MPR and CRR are assumed at 27.00 and 45.00 per cent, respectively. The baseline projections were generally supported by the assumption of continued improvement in business optimism and stronger investor sentiment,” the CBN said.

 


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FG to Empower Artisans for Global Value

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The Federal Government has reaffirmed its commitment to grassroots artisans to upgrade local skills to meet both national and international benchmarks and compete in the global markets.

Speaking recently during the Skill-Up Artisans (SUPA) zonal rally, Dr Afiz Ogun, director-general of the Industrial Training Fund (ITF), stated that the initiative is designed to professionalise the sector.

The rally was designed to raise awareness of the programme throughout the North-West region.

The rally saw a diverse turnout of professionals, including those in construction and engineering such as welders, fabricators, plumbers, and carpenters.

Those in the technical service comprised of electrical installers and automobile mechanics, while those in the creative and digital space were fashion designers and ICT technicians.

Represented by Muhammad Aminu, the former zonal director of the ITF, Ogun explained that the SUPA scheme seeks to convert traditional craftsmanship into sustainable livelihoods.

He emphasised that the goal is to transform artisans from job seekers into employers of labour.

“We are calling on artisans across the North-West to embrace the SUPA programme,” Ogun remarked. “This is an opportunity to enhance productivity, increase earnings, and ensure our workforce can compete on a global stage”.

According to the DG, the initiative aligns with President Bola Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda, focusing on restoring dignity to manual and technical work.

He noted that a competent artisan class forms the essential foundation of a productive economy.

He further called upon traditional rulers, community leaders, and trade associations to assist the ITF in disseminating information about the programme to ensure high participation rates.

“We are here to engage the technicians, the tradespeople, and the young talents who serve as the backbone of our economy,” he added.

Nancy Ekong, director of the Technical Vocational Skills Training Department, highlighted the programme’s recent successes. She revealed that over 30,000 artisans were trained and upgraded during the initial SUPA cycle in 2025.

The ITF remains optimistic that the continued expansion of SUPA will bridge the existing skills gap in Nigeria’s industrial sector.

 


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Bill Gates Pays Ex-Wife $8Bn Charity Payout in Divorce Settlement

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American billionaire businessman Bill Gates, has paid $8 billion to his ex-wife, Melinda French Gates’ charity, five years after their split over his affairs with other women.

Bill Gates Pays Ex-Wife $8bn Charity Payout in Divorce Settlement

Bill Gates and Melinda French Gates

Gates made the $7.88 billion donation to Melinda French Gates’ Pivotal Philanthropies Foundation in 2024, The New York Times revealed.

The sum, one of the largest public donations ever recorded, was revealed in a new tax filing, which shows the first specific financial terms of the couple’s high-profile split in 2021.

Melinda resigned from The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation in May 2024. Despite leaving the charity, she suggested her ex donate $12.5 billion to a new charitable foundation she intended to create.

A representative for Pivotal told the Times the $12.5 billion agreement has been fulfilled, and the nearly $8 billion donation was part of that agreement.

Melinda set up her Pivotal Philanthropies Foundation in 2022, the year after the divorce. At the end of 2023, it had $604 million on hand.

The billionaire pair split after 27 years together in 2021, embarking on what is considered the most expensive divorce settlement in the world. Melinda later received approximately $76 billion in assets.

Months later, details of Gates’ affair with a Microsoft employee were exposed.

The woman penned a letter to the company’s board in 2019, divulging details about the fling which began in 2000 and demanded that his wife, Melinda “read it”.

Microsoft’s board investigated the women’s claims and deemed the relationship “inappropriate”, the Wall Street Journal reported at the time.

Gates suddenly quit the board in March 2020 while the investigation was still in progress – and before the board could make a formal decision on the matter.

Two further bombshell reports were then revealed, alleging Gates had routinely hit on staffers at Microsoft and at the philanthropic foundation he founded alongside his wife.

A separate shocking report claimed that Gates had sought marriage advice from Jeffrey Epstein, with whom he reportedly shared a “close” relationship, having first met the convicted sex offender in 2011.

Gates’ and Epstein’s friendship first came to light in 2019, months after Epstein killed himself in his Manhattan jail cell while awaiting trial on charges of child sex trafficking.

The two men reportedly spent time together on multiple occasions, flying on Epstein’s private jet – dubbed the “Lolita Express” – and attending late-night gatherings at his Manhattan home.


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