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FXTM Analysis: The Dollar Sinks while Euro Remains Supported

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Lukman Otunuga, a research analyst at FXTM.
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FXTM Research Analyst Lukman Otunuga comments on the IMF’s US growth forecast and the Euro.

The last remnants of the once phenomenal Trump rally were thoroughly crushed on Tuesday after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) trimmed its growth forecast for the US economy amid uncertainty over White House policies.

Although US President Donald Trump has, on multiple occasions, stated that he will “make America great again” the IMF seems unconvinced as it cut growth forecast for the US economy to 2.1% in 2017 and 2018, against April’s projections of 2.3% in 2017 and 2.5% in 2018.

With the world’s largest economy struggling to hit Trump’s 3% GDP target as it confronts issues ranging from an ageing population to low productivity, sentiment is likely to take a hit with the Dollar finding itself under renewed selling pressure.

Bearing in mind that the IMF’s growth projection for the US economy was revised due to flailing assumptions of Donald Trump moving forward with market shaking pro-growth policies, this is a big deal and it will be interesting to see how Fed policymakers react.

Dollar bullish investors who were in desperate need of inspiration to support the Greenback were left empty handed on Tuesday evening after Yellen maintained a safe distance from monetary policy at an event in London. Although she reiterated that “it will be appropriate to raise interest rates very gradually,” this was old news with nothing fresh brought to the table.

An interesting statement on Yellen’s part was how the banking reforms have currently made the financial system safe, with the next type of crisis that rattled the global markets in 2008 “hopefully not in our lifetimes.” While the comment continues to echo her overall optimism over the US and global economy, Dollar bears were unfazed with the Dollar Index sinking towards 96.20 as of writing.

GBPUSD pops above 1.2775
Sterling bulls were gifted an unexpected lifeline on Tuesday in the form of Nicola Surgeon putting the Scottish independence referendum bill on hold. With the delay of the proposed referendum reducing some political risk at home, the Pound was given room breath.
A weak Dollar played a role in the GBPUSD’s rebound as prices sprung towards 1.2850. While short-term technical bulls may have won the battle this week, the war still rages on with Brexit woes likely to limit gains in the medium to longer term.

Draghi inspires Euro bulls
Euro bulls were unstoppable during Tuesday’s trading session following the firmly hawkish comments from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi which boosted confidence over the health of the European Economy. With “deflationary forces being replaced by reflationary ones,” speculation has mounted over the central bank potentially tapering QE in the future.
Although the central bank president still highlighted that the inflation dynamics remain muted, there is optimism that the current factors hindering inflation are transitory and as such the Euro found further support.
A vulnerable US Dollar complimented the EURUSD’s upside with prices bursting above 1.1300. Technical traders could exploit the decisive break above 1.1300 to target 1.1450.

WTI Crude edges above $44
The fundamental reason why oil has remained depressed for such a prolonged period lies in the high global crude inventories. As long as the oversupply woes remain a dominant theme, the bearish sentiment towards oil should ensure sellers maintain control.
Although WTI Crude edged higher during Wednesday’s trading session, this technical bounce may provide a platform for bears to install renewed rounds of selling.
This remains a critical period for the oil markets especially when factoring in how the extended periods of low prices and US Shales resurgence could cause OPEC’s output cut deal to fall apart. A technical bounce on oil may be on the cards with traders observing how prices react to the daily 20 SMA which is coincidentally at $45.

Commodity spotlight – Gold
Gold bulls were unrestrained during Wednesday’s trading session with prices clipping $1252 as the combination of Dollar weakness and risk aversion boosted the metal’s safe-haven allure. The sharp losses observed at the start of the week have almost been clawed back with bulls eyeing $1260.
With the ongoing uncertainty of Brexit, political risk in Washington and jitters from depressed oil accelerating the flight to safety, Gold is likely to remain supported moving forward. Technical traders will be paying attention to how the metal behaves above $1250. A daily close above $1250 could encourage a further incline towards $1260.


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E-Financial

Nigerians File 3,000 Banking-Related Complaints in 6 Months – FCCPC

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Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission (FCCPC) has disclosed that it received over 3,000 banking-related complaints between March and August 2025, leading to the recovery of about N10 billion for consumers across 30 sectors.

Nigerians File 3,000 Banking-Related Complaints in 6 Months - FCCPC

The Commission made this known while commending the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) proposed policy mandating banks to refund customers for failed Automated Teller Machine (ATM) transactions within 48 hours. It described the move as “a major victory for bank customers and a turning point in consumer protection.”

According to the FCCPC, its Consumer Complaints Data Report for March–August 2025 showed that the banking and fintech sectors accounted for the highest volume of complaints nationwide.

Most issues involved failed transactions, unauthorized deductions, and delayed refunds concerns the new CBN guidelines directly aim to address.

Mr. Tunji Bello, executive vice chairman and chief executive officer, FCCPC, hailed the CBN’s initiative as “a timely and long-awaited correction to a persistent consumer challenge.”

“It aligns perfectly with what the FCCPC has been advocating, given the volume of failed transaction complaints we handle” he said.

“We commend the CBN for this decisive action, which will ease the burden on consumers and rebuild trust in financial services,” Bello stated. He added that the move underscores the growing collaboration between the FCCPC and the CBN in safeguarding consumer rights and improving service delivery in Nigeria’s financial sector.

The FCCPC noted that the proposed directive aligns with key provisions of the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Act (FCCPA) 2018 particularly Sections 17(g), (h), (l), (s), and (t) which seek to eliminate unfair practices and promote fair dealings across all sectors.

The Commission emphasized that prompt implementation of the CBN’s 48-hour refund policy would bring immediate relief to millions of Nigerians who often face delays in transaction reversals, while also strengthening accountability and public confidence in digital and cashless financial systems.

To ensure effective enforcement, the FCCPC said it would work closely with the CBN to establish joint monitoring mechanisms that will track compliance and ensure erring banks are held accountable.

“Stronger collaboration among regulators is vital for faster complaint resolution, prevention of recurrence, and the promotion of confidence in Nigeria’s expanding digital economy,” the Commission stated.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


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Reps Panel Says N1Bn Capital Base for Crypto Service Operators Excessive

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House of Representatives Ad-hoc Committee on the Economic, Regulatory, and Security Implications of Cryptocurrency Adoption and Point-of-Sale (POS) Operations has described the N500 million to N1 billion capital requirement set by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for Virtual Assets Service Providers (VASPs) as excessive and counterproductive.

Reps Panel Says N1Bn Capital Base for Crypto Service Operators Excessive

The committee, chaired by Hon. Olufemi Richard Bamisile, made the observation during a technical session with regulatory and security agencies at the National Assembly Complex in Abuja.

Bamisile warned that while effective regulation of the cryptocurrency sector is necessary, the high capital threshold could stifle innovation, discourage legitimate investment, and exclude emerging entrepreneurs, particularly young Nigerians who hold the potential to drive economic growth and digital transformation.

The SEC had earlier fixed the capital base for crypto operators at N500 million, but later proposed an upward review to N1 billion.

The commission explained that the measure was designed to ensure financial stability among operators and protect users’ funds.

It also mandated firms to secure a fidelity bond as insurance against internal fraud or losses.

However, stakeholders have criticised the proposal, arguing that it would favour only big firms and foreign investors, while marginalising local startups.

They warned that such a policy could push indigenous crypto businesses underground or into informal operations.

Currently, the N500 million benchmark remains in force as consultations on the proposed N1 billion threshold continue.

Bamisile, however, urged the SEC to review the capital requirement to make it more inclusive and reflective of the realities of Nigeria’s evolving digital economy.

At the session, the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) disclosed that all virtual and digital assets seized from criminal activities are currently held in its custody.

The anti-graft agency said it maintains dedicated digital wallets across its zonal offices for safekeeping.

In response, the committee directed the EFCC to provide comprehensive records of all confiscated digital assets to support its ongoing legislative review and policy recommendations.

Bamisile reaffirmed the committee’s commitment to establishing a regulatory framework that balances innovation with oversight, safeguards the financial system, and promotes transparency, youth inclusion, and national security in Nigeria’s digital economy.

The committee, however, expressed concern over the failure of several key institutions including the Office of the National Security Adviser, Central Bank of Nigeria, Nigerian Communications Commission, Federal Inland Revenue Service, Ministry of Finance, and Ministry of Communications, Innovation and Digital Economy, to honour its invitation.

Bamisile urged the agencies to take seriously the economic and security implications of the rapidly evolving digital finance sector.


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EU Grants Nigeria N320.5Bn to Boost Agriculture

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European Union’s development cooperation with Nigeria has received a boost with a N320.5 billion (€190 million) credit line allocated to Nigerian commercial banks to broaden their lending to the agricultural sector.

EU Grants Nigeria N320.5Bn to Boost Agriculture

The facility, which is being provided by the European Investment Bank, was announced at a meeting of the bank’s senior executives and a delegation from the Federal Ministry of Budget and Economic Planning on the sidelines of the recently concluded Global Gateway Forum in Brussels, Belgium.

A statement issued on Monday by Bolaji Adeniyi, special adviser media to Minister of Budget and Economic Planning ,confirmed the development.

Speaking at the session, Thourayya Tricki, director for International Partnerships, EIB, said the initiative underscores the EU’s commitment to supporting Nigeria’s economic diversification drive, particularly through climate-smart agriculture and value-chain development.

“This credit line is part of our continued effort to strengthen Nigeria’s agricultural value chains, especially in cocoa and dairy. The investment package will not only expand access to finance but also promote sustainability and competitiveness in Nigeria’s agri-food products,” Tricki said.

Tricki, who was accompanied by Diedrick Zambon, head of Sub-Saharan Africa Relations, EIB, explained that the facility includes both credit and technical assistance components targeted at development finance institutions and commercial banks.

The goal, she said, is to “de-risk agricultural lending and build institutional capacity for long-term financing in the sector.”

Nigeria already benefits from several EU-supported programmes, including an €18 million technical assistance grant to strengthen the local regulatory framework for vaccine production and a €50 million credit facility to deepen access to finance in the pharmaceutical industry.

Representing Nigeria,  Bolaji Onalaja, special assistant to the Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, and Benjamin Galadima, Unit Focal Officer, EU, reaffirmed the country’s commitment to implementing reforms under President Bola Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda to attract sustainable investments.

“Our government is determined to create an enabling environment for investment through the forthcoming National Development Plan (2026–2030) and the Ward-Based Development Programme, which will ensure that growth reaches communities at the grassroots,” Onalaja said.

The Nigerian delegation also held meetings with senior officials from the Directorate of International Partnerships and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, where they discussed opportunities for collaboration in green infrastructure, renewable energy, and industrial development.

On behalf of the Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Senator Abubakar Bagudu, who was on an official assignment in Vienna, Austria, the delegation expressed appreciation to the Head of the EU Delegation to Nigeria and ECOWAS, Ambassador Gauthier Mignot, for facilitating Nigeria’s participation in the Global Gateway Forum.

The Global Gateway Forum, the EU’s flagship investment platform, brings together governments, private investors, and development finance institutions to mobilise resources for sustainable projects that promote digital transformation, green transition, and human capital development.

In her keynote address, Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, reiterated the EU’s resolve to build “mutually beneficial partnerships based on trust and shared prosperity.”

“We are expanding the Global Gateway Investment Package to €400bn and launching a dedicated Investment Hub to accelerate project delivery, especially in Africa,” von der Leyen announced.

The new EU–Nigeria financing deal is expected to strengthen bilateral cooperation under the Global Gateway Strategy and support Nigeria’s efforts to modernise its agricultural sector, improve food security, and enhance export competitiveness.


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