Connect with us

E-Financial

Nigeria Monetary Policy Makers Balk at Rising Inflation

Published

on

Kindly share this post

By Lukman Otunuga, Senior Research Analyst at FXTM,

In January, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) decided to hold the lending interest rate at 13.5 percent and significantly increase the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) from 22.5 percent to 27.5 percent. Far from following the global easing trend, the CBN is taking steps to tighten monetary policy.

The decision follows a worrying rise in inflation in December. Inflation rose to 11.98 percent, meaning that day-to-day living is becoming more expensive as prices for goods and services rise.

Part of the added inflationary pressures are because of border closures and food shortage fears.

On a long-term basis, the Naira’s softness feeds into the dam of rising inflation.

Despite the threat of higher inflation, the CBN has ruled out devaluing the Naira. Policy makers could have a point here. An even weaker local currency may trigger worse consequences. The overflowing dam could break and hyperinflation – a nightmare scenario for any emerging economy – could flood the economy.

The central bank’s reasoning for avoiding an official devaluation is that it holds ample foreign reserves to back the Naira’s value. Policy makers are also banking on rising Oil prices to shore up the $38.6 billion in foreign reserves, at the time of writing. The CBN brushed off the steep drop in foreign reserves from $42 billion to $38 billion in the last months of 2019, pointing out that fluctuations are normal.

Unpredictable CBN policy may impact banking sector

Less liquidity in the market might alleviate rising inflation but on the other hand, it could add to everyday economic pressures. A combination of high interest rates and less liquidity could squeeze corporate budgets, possibly leading to job losses and lower investment in development, not to mention increasing the chances of debt defaults. This may impact the stability of the banking sector in the medium-to-long term.

Fiscal deficit projected to widen

On the monetary policy side, higher Oil prices are pulling in more foreign reserves. But as Oil prices rise, so do fuel subsidies paid by the state, creating a precarious fiscal situation. Nigeria is now set to borrow N1.59 trillion to fund the 2020 budget and the government has increased VAT to 7.5 percent from five percent to boost tax revenues.

External threats pose significant risks to Nigeria’s recovery

Other pressures bearing down on Nigeria’s economy stem from the US-China trade war which is frozen at the moment but could heat up at any time.

The central trading issues for Nigeria in this situation are China’s economic health – China and Nigeria are strong trading partners – and the health of the global economy. If the global economy slows down further, demand for Oil would likely weaken and prices could experience more softness in the near term.

The economic costs of the coronavirus outbreak to Nigeria’s economy must not be overlooked. China is Nigeria’s largest trading partner with total trade hitting $3.25 billion during the third quarter of 2019. If the virus outbreak in China results in slower economic growth, the spillover effect is likely to be felt in Nigeria as trade falls.

The other major international shift is the Brexit process. The UK’s withdrawal plan from the EU has been approved by European and UK-based legislatures. Although the UK officially leaves the EU on January 31, over the next year trade agreements will stay as they are. After that, there is considerable uncertainty over the status of trade deals agreed with the UK through the EU.

As a start, the UK-Africa Investment Summit promises a way forward for future trade deals direct with UK partners. Four British companies signed deals with Nigeria for street lighting, airport control towers and smart metering. The question is whether this momentum can be maintained now that the UK has so many trade deals to put in place with the EU, US and China. On top of that, Nigeria’s trade relations with the UK are now separate from those with the EU, meaning that the UK’s negotiating power and economies of scale are considerably reduced.

In conclusion, Nigeria’s fiscal and monetary policy makers face a difficult economic landscape. The mountain of uncertainty around the US-China trade disputes; the quicksand of the Brexit process; economics impacts of the coronavirus and the rising tide of inflation.

Could the next step be for the CBN to raise interest rates? Amid the current uncertainty, nothing can be ruled out but the impact of stiffer borrowing rates would likely pressure economic growth. With GDP on a growth trajectory, this would add to Nigeria’s economic headwinds. 

 


Kindly share this post

Ugo Onwuaso is an ICT enthusiast. He believes technology should be used for general good. He holds a Master of Public Administration (MPA) degree from the Lagos state University. Dear Reader, Your support matters. But we believe that technology makes life more exciting and helps improve the lives of people around Nigeria and indeed the world. That is why, we have devoted our energy to independent reportage of technology and finance and how they affect lives. Our incisive and analytical view of how technology news affects the daily life help individuals and organizations make up their minds. Quality journalism costs money. Today, we're asking that you support us to do more. Kindly support our effort to deliver technology and finance journalism to everyone in the world. Donate as little as N1,000. Bank transfers can be made to: UBA Plc 1017156876 Communication Week Media Ltd

E-Financial

Shareholders Approve $1.5bn Capital Raising for Access Holdings

Published

on

Kindly share this post

The shareholders of Access Holdings Plc have unanimously approved the company’s proposed capital raising of $1.5 billion through a bond or share sale and a further N365 billion via a Rights Issue to fund its ambitious growth plans.

The shareholders also ratified the appointments of Aigboje Aig-Imoukhuede, Olusegun Ogbonnewo, and Ojinika Olaghere as Non-Executive Directors.

The appointment of Aig-Imoukhuede as the Chairman of Access Holdings was praised by the shareholders, who pointed to his rich history of success with the institution, having transformed it into Nigeria’s biggest lender by market value alongside late Herbert Wigwe.

The shareholders stated that Aigboje’s leadership was instrumental in driving the institution’s growth during the 2004 recapitalisation of the banking industry led by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) under the leadership of its former Governor, Prof. Charles Soludo.

“We are thrilled with Aigboje Aig-Imoukhuede’s return to the role of Chairman. His proven track record, experience, and strategic insights position him as the ideal leader to steer Access Holdings towards meeting its lofty targets.

During his tenure as CEO, particularly during the recapitalisation directive by the CBN, he steered Access Bank to raise an impressive $2 billion in capital, and this demonstrates his capacity to, once again, lead Access Holdings towards successfully achieving the objectives of our planned capital raise and Rights Issue targets,” said Chief Sunny Nwosu, Chairman Emeritus of the Independent Shareholders Association of Nigeria (ISAN).

In line with the Group’s strong financial performance, the payment of a final dividend of N1.80 kobo per every N0.50 kobo ordinary share for the 2023 financial year was approved, marking a 28 per cent improvement from the corresponding period in 2022.

 


Kindly share this post
Continue Reading

E-Financial

Confusion as CBN Deletes, Reinstates Tweet Calling Crypto-Related Directive Fake

Published

on

Kindly share this post

Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has been forced to deny a report saying it issued a directive requiring all banks and financial institutions to identify individuals or entities engaging in transactions with cryptocurrency exchanges and to ensure that such accounts are put on Post No Debit (PND) instruction for six months.

Confusion as CBN Deletes, Reinstates Tweet Calling Crypto-Related Directive Fake

A “Post No Debit” instruction is a directive issued by a bank or financial institution to restrict certain transactions on a customer’s account.

When a PND instruction is in place, the account holder is prohibited from making debit transactions, meaning they cannot withdraw funds or make payments using the affected account.

Confusion occurred when the central bank denied the story on X but then deleted the denial.

The alleged circular also stated that regulated financial institutions engaged in crypto or facilitating payments for crypto exchanges are prohibited.

However, this contradicts an earlier ban lifted in December 2023, allowing banks to facilitate transactions for crypto exchanges.

The central bank lifted the ban nearly two years after enforcing a comprehensive ban on banks engaging with digital currencies.

According to a statement by the CBN at the time, it recognized that the increasing global demand and adoption of crypto make it unjustifiable to maintain the stringent restrictions imposed on financial institutions in 2021.

However, due to the swift devaluation of the naira and the subsequent inflation rate of 29.9%, the government shifted its attention to platforms offering cryptocurrency services.

It disabled websites associated with crypto trading that had gained notoriety for setting informal valuations for the naira.

Binance encountered significant scrutiny when the CBN raised concerns regarding “suspicious financial transactions” occurring through Binance Nigeria in 2023.

Olayemi Cardoso, governor, CBN, said $26 billion had passed through Nigeria via Binance in 2023 from unidentified sources and users.

Binance is facing further challenges in Nigeria, with its executive Tigran Gambaryan, who is based in the United States, being detained in the country.

He’s facing five charges linked to money laundering following a meeting with Nigerian officials regarding Binance’s regulatory compliance.

Nadeem Anjarwalla, one of the executives who met with Nigerian officials about Binance’s regulatory issues, subsequently escaped custody and was tracked down to Kenya, where he faces extradition.

 


Kindly share this post
Continue Reading

E-Financial

NDIC Inaugurates Anti-Corruption and Transparency Unit

Published

on

Kindly share this post

Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC) has inaugurated an Anti-Corruption and Transparency Unit (ACTU) at its headquarters in Abuja.

NDIC Inaugurates Anti-Corruption and Transparency Unit

Speaking at the inauguration which was conducted by officials of the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPC); Mr. Bello Hassan, managing director/chief executive, NDIC, said the corporation has a culture of zero tolerance for corruption, which is further strengthened by its core values of teamwork, respect and fairness, integrity, professionalism, and passion.

Represented by Mr. Mustapha M. Ibrahim, executive director, Operations, Hassan, said, the NDIC ACTU has strengthened the Corporation’s operational system through the implementation of various compliance measures to ensure ethics, integrity, transparency and accountability in the workplace.

He explained that the specific measures include robust Internal Controls, regular Risk Assessments, and strict adherence to regulatory guidelines, and comprehensive training programs for employees.

Hassan described the inauguration as a significant step in the Corporation’s ongoing commitment in the fight against corruption and enhances transparency.

He emphasised that NDIC Management remains committed to supporting ACTU activities, recognizing the unit’s critical role in ensuring the Corporation’s operations are conducted with integrity, free from corruption, and fostering public trust.

Dr. Musa Adamu Aliyu, chairman, ICPC, who was represented by Mr. Olusegun Adigun, acting director System Study and Review, ICPC, praised NDIC management for their dedication and active support in establishing and advancing the activities of the ACTU to address corruption issues and foster ethical practices.

He applauded the efficiency and diligence of the NDIC ACTU in fulfilling its mandate, resulting in the Corporation retaining the first position for two consecutive years on the annual ICPC Ethics and Integrity Compliance Scorecard.

He urged the new ACTU members to see their nomination as an opportunity to build on the good legacies of the previous members and to complement Management’s efforts in promoting the core values of the Corporation through their assigned duties.

 

 


Kindly share this post
Continue Reading

Trending